What is Upset Watch?
Upset Watch is a column dedicated to finding the 35% of NFL games that end in an underdog victory.
Why? Because moneyline underdog wins are far more valuable to bettors and pick’em enthusiasts than the games where the favorites win! Moneyline odds are longer for underdogs, meaning anyone betting on these games doesn’t need to get more than a handful right each week to win big.
How to Bet on Upset Watch
We have thousands of Subscribers to Pickwatch Pro and most are ardent fans of Upset Watch. I’ve had many questions about the best way to make money using these picks, so I have today published a ‘How to Guide’ - read it here:
How to bet on NFL Upset Watch Picks
2021 Season Results (+$1,225) betting $100 on each selection
Last week was huge for Upset Watch - there were 4 upsets in the NFL, and we called all 4. It’s a highly unusual situation that highlights just how accurate we’ve been in this column of late.
That takes our season wins up to $1,225, assuming you placed $100 on each selection - but if you’ve read our How-to guide above, you’ll know that the optimal way to bet on our picks is to bet 2 or 3 teams to win, covering all of the possible combinations. This involves much less risk and a greater reward.
I’ve re-published our season results betting doubles and trebles below:
Round Robin Doubles
|
Week |
Underdog Picks |
Wins |
Bets |
Return |
Stake |
Profit |
|
Week 1 |
5 |
4 |
10 |
$346.51 |
$100.00 |
$246.51 |
|
Week 2 |
7 |
2 |
21 |
$67.37 |
$210.00 |
-$142.63 |
|
Week 3 |
6 |
4 |
15 |
$303.40 |
$150.00 |
$153.40 |
|
Week 4 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
$169.05 |
$150.00 |
$19.05 |
|
Week 5 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
$60.00 |
$100.00 |
-$40.00 |
|
Week 6 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
$189.40 |
$150.00 |
$39.40 |
|
Week 7 |
6 |
4 |
15 |
$481.41 |
$150.00 |
$331.41 |
|
Totals |
41 |
22 |
101 |
$1,617.14 |
$1,010.00 |
$607.14 |
Round Robin Trebles
|
Week |
Underdog Picks |
Wins |
Bets |
Return |
Stake |
Profit |
|
Week 1 |
5 |
4 |
10 |
$747.30 |
$100.00 |
$647.30 |
|
Week 2 |
7 |
2 |
35 |
$0.00 |
$350.00 |
-$350.00 |
|
Week 3 |
6 |
4 |
20 |
$475.28 |
$200.00 |
$275.28 |
|
Week 4 |
6 |
3 |
20 |
$124.00 |
$200.00 |
-$76.00 |
|
Week 5 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
-$100.00 |
|
Week 6 |
6 |
3 |
20 |
$154.63 |
$200.00 |
-$45.37 |
|
Week 7 |
6 |
4 |
20 |
$904.39 |
$200.00 |
$704.39 |
|
Totals |
41 |
22 |
135 |
$2,405.60 |
$1,350.00 |
$1,055.60 |
As you can see, using this method, you’d already have a return of over $1,600 for the season after staking, as opposed to $1,225 just betting on single game outcomes
You can of course use other combinations - quadruples for example - but the returns diminish. We’ve hit 4 underdog wins 3 times this season, so we’re in profit, but in the other 4 weeks, we would not have returned anything, so the profit from quadruples is only $224.76.
If you have any questions on this, drop us a line at contact@pickwatch.com and we'll be happy to help.
Free Pick:
This was the game that I really liked the look of as an upset before my weekly research began. I still do, but it’s very tough to see that Washington defense doing enough to stop Denver if Teddy Bridgewater is at anything approaching full health and the Broncos get any kind of run game going.
The Washington defense is historically bad. 32nd in points allowed, passing yards allowed and passing TD’s allowed, they’re also allowing 57% of third downs to be converted (worst in the league). While I’m a Taylor Heinike fan, I don’t like the conversion metrics of the WFT in the red zone (50% TD ratio) or on 3rd down (34.5%) which are awful numbers and speak of something wrong with playcalling, execution and personnel. Every defense is vulnerable at times, but consistently, the Washington Football Team has failed to take advantage of what few opportunities it's had this season.
So even though I have a really big gut feeling on this one, I have to trust the data here and say that the chances of the WFT pulling off an upset here are going to be dictated by them playing a defensive game that they haven’t managed all season yet. Sure, it could happen, and sure, I AM LITERALLY SAYING I THINK IN MY HEART THAT IT WILL - but you just shouldn’t bet on it, which is why it's our free pick of the week.
You can read the full article with all Six underdog picks and get all Pro features for just $5.99 for the first month or $22.50 for a whole year by using the code OCTOBER25 before the end of this month!
