What is Upset Watch?
Upset Watch is a column dedicated to finding the 35% of NFL games that end in an underdog victory.
Why? Because those games are far more valuable to bettors and pick’em enthusiasts than the games where the favorites win! Odds are longer for underdogs, meaning anyone betting on these games doesn’t need to get more than a handful right each week to win big.
Upset Watch golden rules
I’ve added a few explanations to this week’s column that I’ll be keeping at the top every week. Here are my golden rules:
- Leave your preconceptions at the door - Any team can win in today’s NFL and our job is to show you how that is possible
- You don’t need to bet big to win big - see my guide below to betting on Upset Watch’s selections
- Keep your head - Part of betting underdogs is knowing that you don’t need to get every game right to make a profit. No system is 100%, the best ones don’t need to be…
- Be Brave. You miss every game you don’t pick. Don’t be the guy who says they saw it coming, while staring at a ticket that says the opposite!
How to bet on Upset Watch
I place what are known as ‘Round Robin’ parlays on the selections in this column.
This means that rather than making one big parlay of 5 or 6 underdogs which has a huge potential payout, but is very unlikely to come off (due to the nature of underdog picks), I make several smaller parlays that cover all of the possible winning combinations in bets of 2 and 3 teams.
This is safer as it guarantees at least some return from 2 teams winning, and as the number of teams that win increases, so does the number of bets you placed that win!
What are Round Robins/Multiples?
Round Robins, sometimes called 'multiples' around the world, is a way of reducing the risk of parlays.
Let's say you have a 3 team parlay. You can bet on that, but if only 1 team loses, you will lose the entire bet.
By placing 2/3 Round Robins, you guarantee that if at least 2 out of 3 selections win, you win that portion of the bet.
Here's an example:
Let's say I like the Vikings, Cowboys and 49ers to win. I could bet on all 3 and take the risk that if 2 win and 1 loses, my bet is lost entirely.
OR
I place double bets. The bookmaker automatically calculates the number of bets needed to cover every possible combination of winners from the teams in my parlay.
Because there are only 3 teams, this is easy - there are only 3 winning combinations
- Vikings and Cowboys
- Vikings and 49ers
- Cowboys and 49ers
Now, if the 49ers and Vikings win, but the Cowboys lose, I'll still win bet 2. I'll lose the other two double parlays, because they involve the Cowboys.
If all 3 win, I will win all 3 bets!
The positive to this is that you win steadily and with minimal risk if some of your picks are good. As long as 2 selections win, you'll win something back, and if all of your selections win, you'll still win big! You can select round robins in whatever number you like, but I've shown below why combinations of 2 and 3 selections are the optimal ones if you're picking underdogs.
Example Betslip:
By logging into BetMGM, I can simply select the Round Robin 2/5 option from the bet slip and it will automatically cover every combination for me. (see this example bet slip)
As there are 10 bets, I’ll bet $10 on each and that makes my total stake $100, with the total winnings if all 5 selections win $944.83.
In this case, for example, if the first 3 teams win, I’ll win 3 bets (1+2, 1+3, 2+3) that return $169.75, and a profit of $69.75 on my stake of $100.
Season results using Round Robins
To give you an idea of this, I’ve added these tables for you to look at detailing our results up until week 8 of 2021. This is a table of the actual returns you can make with Round Robins, with the real odds we bet on.
I use stakes that are slightly higher than this, but you can start with $1 bets and work your way up if you like.
Round Robin 2/5
|
Week |
Picks |
Wins |
Bets |
Return |
Stake |
Profit |
|
Week 1 |
5 |
4 |
10 |
$346.51 |
$100.00 |
$246.51 |
|
Week 2 |
7 |
2 |
21 |
$67.37 |
$210.00 |
-$142.63 |
|
Week 3 |
6 |
4 |
15 |
$303.40 |
$150.00 |
$153.40 |
|
Week 4 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
$169.05 |
$150.00 |
$19.05 |
|
Week 5 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
$60.00 |
$100.00 |
-$40.00 |
|
Week 6 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
$189.40 |
$150.00 |
$39.40 |
|
Week 7 |
6 |
4 |
15 |
$481.41 |
$150.00 |
$331.41 |
|
Totals |
41 |
22 |
101 |
$1,617.14 |
$1,010.00 |
$607.14 |