Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 14. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that have gone 48-24-1 since Week 8) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 190-75-2 record since 2020 (including 33-15 since Week 4), will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

San Francisco at Seattle

This is a game that can decide the NFC West, as San Francisco will clinch this division with a win over Seattle.

That factor will make Seattle adopt an aggressiveness that they have used for much of this season, as early season defensive woes that saw the Seahawks allow 27+ points in four of the first five games of the season eventually helped Seattle rack up 27+ points in five out of six contests and vaulted the Seahawks to a 6-3 mark.

The problem for Seattle is that its defense hasn’t been able to hold up to the pressure that its offense has placed on it of late, as the Seahawks have given up 93 points over the past three weeks.

That is an issue against a San Francisco squad that has tallied 33+ points in three of the past four weeks and seems to have found a breakout quarterback in Brock Purdy. The 49ers should also be able to move the ball on the ground at will against a Seahawks defense that has given up 883 rushing yards in the past four games. Combine that with a San Francisco rush defense that has allowed fewer than 70 yards in the past six games and the 49ers claim this one.

KC’s pick: San Francisco

Confidence level: 5

Miami at Buffalo

Buffalo came into this season with a seven-game win streak over the Dolphins, but Miami put a stop to that with a 21-19 win over the Bills in September.

The big question mark in this contest is how will the Dolphins offense perform? This platoon had a four-game stretch scoring 30+ points, but injuries and turnovers have put an end to that, as the Dolphins have posted 17 points in two consecutive contests.

By contrast, Buffalo has tallied 20+ points in five straight games due in part to an improved rush offense that has posted 100+ yards in every matchup this season. The Bills have also been much better on defense after a subpar midseason stretch, as Buffalo hasn’t allowed 100+ rushing yards in four straight games and permitted only 22 points over the past two games combined.

Add that to some cold weather in western New York and the Bills are the preferred option here.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 4

Baltimore at Cleveland

Baltimore would like nothing more than to win a sixth game in seven opportunities against the Browns, but they will have to do so with a backup quarterback, as Lamar Jackson has been ruled out of this game with a knee injury.

His absence didn’t prevent the Ravens from racking up 215 rushing yards against the Steelers, which is a good omen considering that Cleveland allowed 136 rushing yards against Cincinnati last week and has given up 136+ rushing yards in three of the past five games.

Cleveland counters this with a strong ground attack of its own, as the Browns tallied 363 rushing yards in the Week 12-13 matchups against Tampa Bay and Houston. Merge that with quickly improving play from Deshaun Watson and it should deliver at least 20 points for the Browns. Since Baltimore has scored more than 16 points only once in the last four games, that number should be enough to cinch a Cleveland win.

KC’s pick: Cleveland

Confidence level: 3

Atlanta at New Orleans

The Saints have won eight of the past ten games in this series and are favored to win this matchup as well. This is almost certainly due in part to the Falcons making a quarterback change, as Marcus Mariota went on injured reserve and was replaced by third-round rookie Desmond Ridder.

This change should not alter Atlanta’s game plan creation, as Ridder has a similar skill set to Mariota, but his initial pass in this contest will be the first of his NFL career, so there are uncertainties here.

Ridder’s rushing talents mean this will be a game of contrasting styles, as the Saints rushing attack has been non-existent this year, while Atlanta has racked up 100+ yards on the ground in all but one game.

Even if Ridder is able to mimic Mariota’s rushing production, he’s still making his debut on the road versus a divisional opponent with a very loud crowd, so the Saints are the pick.

KC’s pick: New Orleans

Confidence level: 2

NY Giants at Washington

Both of these teams have a low floor when it comes to the number of points needed to secure victory. The Commanders are 6-3-1 when they score 17 or more points, while the Giants are 7-2-1 when they tally 19+ points. This means any edge could be the difference maker in this matchup.

The primary place to get an edge is via Saquon Barkley, as he is the key to the Giants offense. Barkley hasn’t been quite the same since New York gave him 36 scrimmage plays against the Texans in Week 10, as he has gained only 152 rushing yards on 53 carries since that contest. That was not the only time that the Giants leaned heavily on Barkley earlier this year and it may be an indicator that he is worn down. Add that to Washington allowing 72 or fewer rushing yards in three of the past four games and the Commanders land this one.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 4

Pittsburgh at Carolina

The Steelers and Panthers have been ascending in power rankings in recent weeks, as Carolina is 4-3 in its last seven (with wins in three of its last four) and Pittsburgh is 3-2 since a much-needed Week 9 bye.

The Panthers owe much of their success to a ground game that has generated 169+ yards in five of the past seven contests. That dovetails very well with a Steelers rush defense that has been awful the past three weeks, with 471 rushing yards allowed in that span and 361 yards allowed in the previous two contests.

Pittsburgh also could be going through a quarterback change, as Kenny Pickett has been in the concussion protocol this week and may not clear it in time for this game. The Steelers aren’t even sure who their backup would be, as there are reports that there has been an in-week competition for the starting quarterback role in the event Pickett is out.

That may cause an issue in Pittsburgh’s offensive consistency, but Carolina likely won’t have that problem since the Panthers have scored 21+ points in six of the past seven games. The Steelers have tallied 21+ points only three times all year and this contest isn’t likely to be the fourth, so this lands in Carolina’s column.

KC’s pick: Carolina

Confidence level: 3

Detroit at NY Jets

These are teams headed in opposite directions, as the Lions have won five out of six while the Jets have lost four out of six, including three out of the last four.

Detroit’s offense has found a groove Motown can be proud of, as the Lions have scored 161 points over the past five games, but Dan Campbell’s defense has almost as much to do with the teams’ recent success as the offense, as Detroit has allowed fewer than 20 points in three of the past six games.

The Jets offense took the hoped-for step forward with Mike White under center, but White took a beating against Buffalo and may be banged up headed into this game.

The key stat factor here is turnovers, as the Jets defense has registered only one takeaway in the past four games, while Detroit has posted only three giveaways in the past seven games. The script is flipped on the other side, as New York has given the ball away twice in two straight contests, while the Lions defense has generated 11 takeaways in the past six games. That disparity is enough to drive this selection in Detroit’s direction.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 3

Arizona at Denver

This could feature a battle of backup quarterbacks, as the Cardinals will have Colt McCoy in for the injured Kyler Murray and the Broncos are very likely to start Brett Rypien over Russell Wilson after Wilson suffered a nasty concussion in Week 14.

Whoever does start at quarterback for Denver will be facing a Cardinals defense that has been awful of late. Arizona’s opponents have scored 25+ points in six of the past seven games, including 90 points over the past three contests.

Denver’s defense has held up much better over the course of the season but has allowed 22+ points in three out of four weeks. That trend is less than ideal, but it still fares this defense far better than the Cardinals, so Denver is the pick.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 3

Tennessee at LA Chargers

The Titans have tallied three straight losses after a 7-3 start and may be worn down from playing multiple weeks of smashmouth football.

Endurance isn’t the only issue for this club, as Tennessee’s coverage issues are also a major problem. The Titans have allowed 754 net passing yards over the past two weeks, which is a big part of why Tennessee has given up 71 points in the last two games.

That will give the Chargers a huge target, but the Titans will have an equally large weakness to go after, as Los Angeles has allowed 150+ rushing yards in six of the past seven contests. That can give Derrick Henry the chance to post back-to-back 100+ rush yard games for the first time since Week 9.

This means both teams will have paths to success, but Tennessee has scored 20+ points in only two of its last eight games. By contrast, the Chargers have scored 20 or more points in six of the last seven contests. Since each team should have offensive success, this gives Los Angeles more paths to victory, as Tennessee needs this to be a slowed down game and may not get its wish.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

New England at Las Vegas

There is a magic number in the Patriots 2022 season: 20. When New England allows fewer than 20 points they win, as the Patriots are 7-0 in games of that nature. When New England allows 20 or more points they lose, as the Patriots are 0-6 in that scoreboard situation.

This is a fortuitous element for the Raiders, as Las Vegas has scored 20+ points in ten out of 13 games. The Silver and Black’s odds to make it 11 out of 14 could be even greater, as Las Vegas may have the combination of Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller in the lineup for the first time since very early in this season.

New England may also come into this game at less than 100 percent, as Rhamondre Stevenson is on track to miss this contest and Damien Harris is dealing with a thigh injury. Put those together with the magic number and the Raiders are the percentage play here.

KC’s pick: Las Vegas

Confidence level: 4

LA Rams at Green Bay

The Rams and Packers have both been suffering through a terrible season, but they are heading into this Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup coming off wins in their last game.

Los Angeles got its victory with one of the most improbable comebacks in league history when Baker Mayfield direction the Rams to two late fourth quarter touchdowns to beat the Raiders. Mayfield’s addition could notably improve the Los Angeles vertical passing game, as his willingness to take shots downfield is why the Rams posted 200+ net passing yards it that game, a total they hadn’t reached since Week 6.

That may help kickstart the Los Angeles offense, but it may not provide the type of boost that Christian Watson gave to the Packers passing game. Watson has scored eight touchdowns over the past four weeks and that spike was paramount to Green Bay posting 28+ points three times in those games.

Los Angeles should be able to augment Mayfield’s downfield throws with quality rushing production, as the Packers have allowed 518 yards on the ground over the past two weeks, but the Rams have rush defense issues of their own (165 yards allowed against the Raiders), so those should offset and result in a Green Bay win.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 3

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 190-75-2 since 2020 (including 33-15 since Week 4), are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.