Welcome to week 3's Upset Watch

Week 2 was a huge win for us, notching $500+ profit, and picking two of the biggest underdog winners, the Saints and Buccaneers, in our five winners for the week.

That's why you follow us, I guess, for the underdogs who nobody else is picking. Only three NFL experts picked the Bucs and Saints to win, and only two had the Bills on top of that.

Week 3 New format

This week we're going to - at the suggestion of some users, be going to a new confidence style of ranking.

We'll still be clear on which games we're counting towards our overall headline profit, but we'll be quantifying the confidence we have in other picks. For example, last week we spoke at length about how much of a play the Falcons looked at +205, but in the end, despite being very high on them, we opted for a more conservative option.

The reality is that everyone has different thresholds of risk, and instead of me deciding that for you, why not give you my opinion, and you can decide how low you go. This also gives us extra information to break down picks and profit - for example, how would we fare taking more or less risk every week? What if we only took the top 3 picks? What if we took those teams just outside the threshold we set each week?

That's what we're doing, as well as making it easier for confidence pool users, and those in survivor leagues.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, and that's what gets results.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 3. Not a VIP member? sign up here!