Welcome to week 18's Upset Watch

Well, the regular season comes to an end this week, and that means our final full slate of NFL games for the 2024 season. As always in week 18, the most important factors are which teams are playing to win, and which are resting players and likely to play their backups.

We'll have analysis of every game, and with no Thursday night game, expect picks in Thursday afternoon, and the analysis for games on Friday as lineup considerations become clearer.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 18. Not a VIP member? sign up here!