Sigh! Last week, nothing went right. We started strong. At one stage, the Broncos were two scores up, and coasting to an easy win. They lost after collapsing in the second half.

Then, the Texans tied the game - or nearly did. A horror injury to WR Tank Dell left QB C.J. Stroud in tears, the extra point was delayed 15 minutes, and Ka'imi Fairbairn missed it. The Texans didn't recover, and the Chiefs went on to win easily.

Then on Sunday, the Titans scored 30 points for only the second time this season. The problem? They gave up 38 points for only the second time this season. The Jets were given multiple opportunities to win a game that the Rams struggled in, but a catastrophic final 8 minutes consigned them to a poor 19-9 defeat. Finally, the Jags finished the game with the ball in their own hands, failing to convert a 2min drive to win the game against the Raiders.

Only three games actually classed as 'underdog wins' - the Commanders won against the Eagles after Jalen Hurts exited in the first quarter, the Panthers won in overtime against the Cardinals, and the Cowboys shocked the Bucs on Sunday night.

Sometimes, you just have to accept it's one of those weeks!

Unfortunately, it's been 'one of those weeks' far more frequently than at any point since I started writing the column seriously in 2018. Compared to the high-water mark of 2020, when 91 underdogs had won by the same time as this season, we're 20 opportunities down. 

We chatted about this in the Discord. I don't think this is a pattern that will hold, and it's far more likely that 2025 is back to business as usual, as this kind of statistical outlier repeated over another season is - as you can see - extremely unlikely.

Top picks

For the second time this season we went 0-5. As above, all but one of our picks - the Titans - had a legitimate shot to win, and that means a frustrating week.

All underdog picks

The 49ers were our sole 'lean' - that was another where they had a chance to drive for the game winner, and failed. Bah.