Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 5. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers. 


The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 159-61-2 since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.


New York Giants vs. Green Bay (in London)


It is incredible that this is a battle of 3-1 teams, but such is the power of Aaron Rodgers and Saquon Barkley. As impressive as Barkley has been in leading the NFL in rushing through four weeks, Rodgers has been equally impressive in adjusting to a new receiving corps. The problem for New York is that their entire path to victory may be through Barkley’s efforts, as their receiving corps is banged up and Daniel Jones is battling an ankle issue. The Giants secondary is also thin and may have to lean on Fabian Moreau, a cornerback with abysmal coverage metrics. That provides Rodgers and company many more ways to win, so take the Packers in this one.


KC’s pick: Green Bay


Confidence level: 4


Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland


The Chargers hit a down note in their Week 2 loss to Kansas City, as injuries from that matchup slowed the club in its Week 3 loss to Jacksonville and the resulting lack of confidence allowed Houston to stay a lot closer last week than they should have been able to. Cleveland should be able to move the ground against a subpar Chargers rush defense, but the Browns have allowed a total of 95 points (including 23+ on three occasions) versus four subpar offenses. Los Angeles is anything but a subpar offense and Justin Herbert looks like he is fully recovered from the rib injury, so take the Chargers here.


KC’s pick: Los Angeles


Confidence level: 4


Detroit at New England


This should be one of the most interesting games of the week because of the clash of styles. Detroit has taken the fast break approach out of necessity, as its appallingly bad defense has forced the offense to try to rack up big plays. New England could allow the Lions to take a different approach, as the Patriots will be down to either their second or third string quarterback (depending on Brian Hoyer’s health) and will likely take a conservative tack on that side of the ball. Detroit is also dealing with a ton of offensive injuries and could be short-handed there. This makes this one of the closest toss up games of the week, so the tiebreaker is a New England defense that has played below its talent level. That should allow the Lions to force a pace that the Patriots will be hard pressed to match and lands this one in Detroit’s column.


KC’s pick: Detroit


Confidence level: 1


Seattle at New Orleans


Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense are getting plenty of kudos for their superb performance over the past couple of weeks, but the reality is that Seattle has been able to move the ball because it faced the weak Atlanta and Detroit defenses. That might seem to be an issue in a matchup against a New Orleans defense that is good on paper, but the Saints have allowed 20+ points in every game this year and 26+ on two occasions. They have also given up 145+ rushing yards twice and are 25th in offensive scoring rate allowed. New Orleans also has injuries to Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas, so take Seattle in a close road upset.


KC’s pick: Seattle


Confidence level: 2


Miami at New York Jets


There were question marks about how the Jets offense would adjust to Zach Wilson taking over after sitting out for four weeks, but those concerns were largely allayed when Wilson played quite well in last week’s win at Pittsburgh. Miami did not fare so well during its unexpected quarterback change, as the Dolphins looked out of sync with Teddy Bridgewater under center after Tua Tagovailoa suffered his brutal concussion against Cincinnati. Miami’s offense also looked out of sorts in the first seven quarters of the season and then didn’t exactly shine against the Bills in Week 3. Since the Jets may have as much skill position talent as any team in the league, that should give them enough of an advantage to win a close contest.


KC’s pick: New York


Confidence level: 2


Tennessee at Washington


These are teams trending in vastly different directions. Tennessee lost its first two games of the year and looked like they gave up against Buffalo in the embarrassing 41-7 loss in Week 2, but then the Titans got back to their brand of power football on both sides of the ball and that led to solid victories against the Raiders and Colts. Washington didn’t mind letting Carson Wentz take some chances in matchups against Jacksonville and Detroit in Weeks 1-2, but the powerhouse Eagles and Cowboys defenses dominated the Washington offense the past two weeks. The Titans defense won’t overpower the Commanders, but that unit has six takeaways in four games and should get more against Wentz, so take the Titans as the preferred option.


KC’s pick: Tennessee


Confidence level: 3


Dallas at Los Angeles Rams


The Rams are a team in trouble. Their passing game entirely revolves around Cooper Kupp and their head coach has gone so far as to say that defenses simply aren’t letting Allen Robinson II get open. That isn’t the only problem, as Matthew Stafford looks like his offseason elbow ailment may not have gone away and Jalen Ramsey is having a so-so year in coverage. Dallas has done a fantastic job of adjusting to a more conservative approach with Cooper Rush under center and that has maximized the complementary value of the Cowboys potent defense. The Rams have plenty of coaching savvy and it would not be a shock to see Sean McVay outcoach Mike McCarthy, but talent is the percentage play in straight up picks and Dallas is displaying more of that of late.


KC’s pick: Dallas


Confidence level: 1 


Cincinnati at Baltimore


The Bengals ended a five-game losing streak to the Ravens last year and swept Baltimore for the first time since 2015 by winning their two matchups by a combined 82-38 score. A big factor in those wins is that Baltimore had a banged-up secondary that could not slow Cincinnati’s high octane aerial assaults. The Ravens are healthier there in 2022, but Marcus Peters and Marcus Williams have both been coverage liabilities that the Bengals will exploit. Baltimore would have a good chance to stop that if they had a pass rush that could challenge the Bengals inconsistent pass blocking, but Baltimore ranks 25th in pass pressure rate this year despite having the 11th highest blitz rate. Combine that with the big play potential of the Ravens offense and this should be a shootout. Cincinnati is slightly better adapted to that type of game and thus lands this selection by a small margin.


KC’s pick: Cincinnati


Confidence level: 1


KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 159-61-2 since 2020 are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. This week he has 8 picks in this section, a record.