Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 7. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 38-23 this year and are 259-163-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 20-11 this year and have netted a 285-118-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

New England vs Jacksonville (game in London)

The Patriots turned their offense over to Drake Maye last week. He did many things well statistically, as he threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 38 yards. Some of that was due to throwing versus a prevent defense, but the Jaguars secondary is so bad that Maye should be able to replicate much of that performance.

The problem for Jacksonville is that it is very possible they will fire Doug Pederson regardless of the outcome of this game. It’s the type of thing that seems to carry over to the players, and it was part of why the Jaguars had such a dud in last week’s London game versus the Bears. Odds are that will be the case again, so this one goes to the Patriots.

KC’s pick: New England

Confidence level: 2

Seattle at Atlanta

These teams are headed in opposite directions. The Falcons started off losing two of their first three but have since won three straight. An offensive turnaround has been key, as Atlanta has scored 74 points over the past two games and generated 973 net offensive yards. Just as importantly, the Falcons have only given the ball away four times in the past five weeks.

Seattle got out to a 3-0 start and has since stumbled to losses in its last three games. A defensive collapse is a major factor, as the Seahawks have allowed 97 points in that span while giving up 1,292 net offensive yards. They are also giving the ball away far too much, with six turnovers in those three losses. Merge these trends with a cross-country road trip and it doesn’t look good for Seattle.

KC’s pick: Atlanta

Confidence level: 4

Cincinnati at Cleveland

The Bengals season might have been turned around in Week 6. Prior to this, the Cincinnati defense had huge personnel issues in the middle of the defensive line. That was resolved with the return of some injured players and was key to a 17-7 win over the Giants last week.

That’s a huge factor, because the Browns have the caliber of defense that can slow Joe Burrow and company. What Cleveland has proven incapable of doing is producing many points, as the Browns have tallied 18 or fewer points in every game this year. The Bengals defensive turnaround should keep that trend going and Cincinnati’s offense still ought to be able to produce enough points to win.

KC’s pick: Cincinnati

Confidence level: 4

Houston at Green Bay

Jordan Love has been a phenom since returning from a Week 1 knee injury. Over the past three games he has thrown for nearly 900 yards and tallied 10 touchdown passes. That may be difficult to replicate versus a Houston defense that has allowed 209 or fewer net passing yards in every game this year.

That will put the onus on C.J. Stroud to showcase his aerial skills. Stroud did that in Weeks 4-5 by posting 676 passing yards, so he can keep up if this game goes the shootout route.

With these two playing so well, this will come down to tiebreaking elements. The Texans posted four takeaways last week but had zero in the three games before that. Green Bay has notched three takeaways in all but one game and had two in the outlier. Add that to the home field advantage and this is a Packers selection.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 1

Miami at Indianapolis

The Colts can’t seem to decide which quarterback they want to go with. Anthony Richardson is their future and thus gets the start when healthy, but this offense has worked much better in many ways with Joe Flacco under center. Regardless of who starts, Indianapolis should get a boost with the return of Jonathan Taylor.

Miami doesn’t have any such quarterback luxury. They will be starting Tyler Huntley, a quarterback with some rushing skills but one who has not much in the way of passing. Mike McDaniel has probably put together some creative play calling during the Dolphins Week 6 bye, but the Colts talent level should top that.

KC’s pick: Indianapolis

Confidence level: 4

Detroit at Minnesota

This is a true clash of the NFC North titans. Detroit has a combination of a great power rushing game, an impact downfield passing attack and one of the best rush defenses in the NFL. That all worked together to post a 47-9 destruction of the Cowboys last week and shows just how dangerous this team can be when things are working well.

The Vikings are every bit as dangerous. Minnesota is undefeated in part because Sam Darnold finally found an offensive situation that matched his skill set. Kevin O’Connell knows how to get the most out of his skills and now that the Vikings have Jordan Addison back (and may get T.J. Hockenson back for this one), this offense has even more firepower.

The tiebreaker here is a Minnesota defense that has shut down the 49ers, Texans and Packers offenses (in the Green Bay case it was for a good portion of the game). The Lions defense just isn’t at that level, so the home field Vikings take this one.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 1

Philadelphia at New York Giants

The Giants defense has quite a history to live up to. This team isn’t among those all-time greats by any stretch, but this platoon did just slow down a Bengals offense on Sunday night and has allowed more than 21 points only one time, that being to the powerhouse Vikings in Week 1. This allowed New York to keep up with Cincinnati until the very end of the game last week and should keep the Giants in contention this week.

Having noted all of that, the Eagles offense looked much better last week with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson back in the lineup. The Browns were able to slow Saquon Barkley, yet Philadelphia still ran for 116 yards. The return of Malik Nabers should allow New York to keep up with much of Philadelphia’s offensive firepower, yet the reality is the Eagles have a notable talent edge on offense and thus get this pick.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 4

Kansas City at San Francisco

This is a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, but these teams are nowhere near the same as those clubs in the title match.

Kansas City’s passing woes are so bad that Patrick Mahomes hasn’t generated 20+ fantasy points in a single game this year. The good news for Kansas City is that Andy Reid’s rush play calling is every bit as creative as his pass play calling. That has led to four straight games with 100 or more yards on the ground and 22+ points on the scoreboard in all but one game.

San Francisco has been dealing with its share of injuries, yet the 49ers have still racked up 384 net offensive yards in every game this year. George Kittle is truly back to form and the 49ers have shown that they don’t Christian McCaffrey to rack up strong rush yard totals. The Chiefs defense is hitting its stride, but with this game being in San Francisco and the 49ers offense on such a roll, this one goes to San Francisco.

KC’s pick: San Francisco

Confidence level: 1

New York Jets at Pittsburgh

Aaron Rodgers has gotten just about everything he wanted over the past week and change. It was clear he wasn’t on the Robert Saleh bandwagon, which certainly had to be part of Saleh’s exit. Rodgers also wanted to bring Davante Adams to New York and now has another impact target.

The problem with that, beyond letting the quarterback run the team, is that New York already had an impact wideout. That will lessen the impact of Adams’ addition, as it reduces the target volumes for Garret Wilson and Allen Lazard.

Pittsburgh is going through its own soap opera with Russell Wilson taking over for Justin Fields. One wonders why the Steelers picked this brutal matchup to put Wilson under center for his first start with the team. It may be because they think they need an offensive boost versus a tough Jets defense, but it also may be to test if Wilson is up to the tough tasks.

Add all of this to the Steelers tough defense and it’s a tossup that calls for the home field advantage tiebreaker.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 1

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

The Baltimore offense is an absolute juggernaut right now. The Ravens are on a four-game streak with 427 or more offensive yards, have posted 58 first downs over the past two games and have racked up 106 points in the past three games. Baltimore’s defense is also starting to play much better and the Ravens have yet to allow 100 rushing yards in a game this year.

Tampa Bay can match the offensive prowess with 81 first downs in the last three games, 114 points over the past three weeks (including 51 last week) and an insane 277 rushing yards against the Saints. Where it can’t match up is on defense, as the Buccaneers have allowed 63 points in the past two games.

These trends will send this to the shootout category. Those games are usually 50/50 propositions, but with Baltimore having a healthy rushing attack and Tampa Bay dealing with running back injuries, the Ravens are the preferred option.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 3

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona

Kyler Murray was arguably the worst downfield passer in the league in 2022 and 2023, as he ranked dead last in fantasy points scored on vertical passes in those seasons. He did terrible in that category in Week 1 then had a great Week 2 against a banged-up Rams secondary. The trend has returned to poor of late, and with Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a concussion, Murray’s production pace is not likely to improve.

The Chargers had their own production issues when Justin Herbert got hurt. He’s now trending towards healthy, and Los Angeles has a potential powerhouse rushing attack with J.K. Dobbins. The Chargers defense is also playing at a higher level than the Cardinals, so this is an LA pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 3

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 285-118-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Denver at New Orleans

The Broncos still have a way to go to be a power playoff contender, but Denver deserves a ton of credit for making the best of their situation. The Broncos defense has been very strong this year, helping hold four foes to 18 or fewer points, and that platoon also fares well in many advanced metrics. Bo Nix still needs a lot of development, yet he’s consistently throwing for 200+ yards and is making more plays by the week.

Contrast that to the Saints. They won’t have Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed for this game and almost certainly won’t have Derek Carr or Taysom Hill. Their receiving corps is likely to be Bub Means, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Mason Tipton. That’s just not a recipe for success, so this one goes to Denver.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 6

Tennessee at Buffalo

Following a Monday night win that gave the Bills a huge leg up in the AFC East, Buffalo decided to go all in and trade for Amari Cooper. He should upgrade a passing game that hasn’t been hitting on all cylinders. One thing Buffalo doesn’t need is help protecting the ball, as the Bills have only two giveaways on the year. They also have been able to hand their hat on a strong defense that has generated at least one takeaway in every game.

The Titans do have the makings of a solid defense, but Tennessee’s passing game has generated 104 or fewer net passing yards on three occasions. Quarterback Will Levis is also turning the ball over at a league leading rate. Combine that with this game being in Buffalo and it easily goes to the Bills.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 8

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Rams

Give Sean McVay a ton of credit. The Rams passing attack was down to players like Demarcus Robinson and Jordan Whittington and yet McVay was still able to get this platoon to rack up 370 net offensive yards against the Packers in Week 5. Los Angeles is now on track to get Cooper Kupp back and still has Kyren Williams, so McVay’s play calling prowess will get supercharged.

The Raiders have no such powers. This team has been dealing with infighting since Week 1 and now the players see Davante Adams traded away to the team of his choice. Las Vegas also has no rushing attack, and the only Aidan O’Connell is not the worst quarterback in the league is due to injuries in Miami. Add the home field element and this one easily goes to the Rams.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 7

Carolina at Washington

The Commanders four-game win streak came to an end last week, but they still deserve a ton of credit. Baltimore is one of the toughest places to play and the Ravens are starting to hit their stride, yet Jayden Daniels still made his share of plays and didn’t look rattled in any respect.

Now Daniels and company get a much more favorable matchup. The Panthers move to Andy Dalton gave this team a chance to move out of worst team in the league status, but Carolina still has an abysmal defense and a relatively low ceiling on offense. This is apt to be a high scoring game, but with Washington having much more octane in their offensive engine, this is a Commanders selection.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 7