I’m glad you were here for my stellar 6-10 record last week. That’s without point spreads, in case you were wondering. Nowhere to go but up, right?
Let’s get to the Week 5 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 4 records: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS
Overall: 35-28 SU, 32-30 ATS
Patriots (-5.5) over BUCS
The Pats’ defense is bad. The Bucs’ defense is banged up, with linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander again tracking toward absences on Thursday. The Bucs should be able to keep things close, but after seeing them barely squeak by the Giants, I’m not willing to give them a win, even at home.
The pick: Pats win, Bucs cover
BENGALS (-3) over Bills
The Bills have been a pleasant surprise so far, but let’s cool it with the playoff speculation. Their offense is BAD, averaging 16 points per game and ranking 29th in total yards. The Bengals appear back to their normal level of mediocrity after two awful games to start the season. At home, that should be enough.
The pick: Bengals win and cover
BROWNS (-1) over Jets
The Jets haven’t been as horrific as expected on offense, but they’re still not very good. They’ll face a Browns’ squad that has probably been worse than advertised, if such a label is possible. Still … do we think the Browns will go 0-16? If not, here’s the most likely victory on their schedule. The probable return of top overall pick Myles Garrett will help.
The pick: Browns win and cover
LIONS (-2.5) over Panthers
This is a tough one. The Panthers’ offense looked shaky for three games, then rebounded with a big performance at New England. The Lions are 3-1 thanks to a solid defense and decent running game, suggesting that hell has frozen over. The game looks like a tossup, so we’ll take the home team.
The pick: Lions win and cover
COLTS (-1.5) over 49ers
Speaking of hell, it’s probably located in the TV markets airing this game. The Colts have played two close home games against bad teams (Cardinals, Browns) while getting blown out twice on the road. The 0-4 49ers have been frisky, losing their last three by a combined eight points to the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals. The Niners are probably the slightly better team.
However, I hate, hate, hate West Coast teams traveling east for 1 p.m. starts. With such little difference between the teams, that tips the scales for me.
The pick: Colts win and cover
DOLPHINS (-3) over Titans
After two straight offensive debacles, I’d rather not pick the Dolphins again. Like, ever. But, Marcus Mariota’s injury status makes this one difficult to predict. If Matt Cassel is under center for the Titans in a road game, I’ll give the ‘Fins one more chance.
The pick: Dolphins win and cover
GIANTS (-3.5) over Chargers
Last week, I wrote: “Let’s just agree to keep picking the Chargers until they win.”
Um, about that. We’ve got another West Coast team with an early start here (this 2016 article from Football Outsiders shows the difficulty involved). The Chargers have Melvin Gordon but they aren’t running well, while the Giants’ supposedly sturdy rush defense is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Both teams are extremely desperate at 0-4, with this game as the difference between “Our chances aren’t good but we’ve gotta start somewhere” and “OMG we really, really suck.” Time to flip a coin …
The pick: Chargers win and cover
EAGLES (-6.5) over Cardinals
Sure, the Cardinals are 2-2, but they’ve beaten the Colts and 49ers, and they’re averaging 16 ppg without David Johnson. The Eagles are going to thump them.
The pick: Eagles win and cover
STEELERS (-8.5) over Jaguars
The Steelers haven’t exactly faced a muderers’ row of offenses (Browns, Vikings, Bears, Ravens), but they rank second in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. Welcome to Pittsburgh, Blake Bortles!
The Steelers should win, but I have a hunch the Jags’ D will keep things within a touchdown.
The pick: Steelers win, Jags cover
Seahawks (+1) over RAMS
What? We’re going to take the struggling Seahawks over the NFL’s trendiest team? Yep. The Seattle D can still play, and Todd Gurley isn’t going to score seven touchdowns every week. The Rams are due to come back to Earth a bit.
The pick: Seahawks win and cover
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Ravens
Picking the Ravens with that offense is a scary proposition, but … ah, screw it. I can’t do it, even against EJ Manuel.
The pick: Raiders win and cover
COWBOYS (-2) over Packers
The Packers could be without RB Ty Montgomery, WR Davante Adams and their first- through 46th-string offensive tackles. Too much to overcome on the road, I think.
The pick: Cowboys win and cover
TEXANS (+1.5) over Chiefs
The Chiefs are a really good team. They’ll probably win the AFC West, and at 4-0 deserve to be called a Super Bowl contender. But their defense is only a shade better than average, and their offense shouldn’t be expected to sustain its current, elite level of production. I’m not trying to beat up on the Chiefs – just noting that they’re not an unstoppable juggernaut.
Sunday night’s visit to Houston is an ideal spot for the Chiefs’ first loss. The Texans’ defense is strong, and rookie QB DeShaun Watson is playing well (though we should still expect ups and downs).
The pick: Texans win and cover
BEARS (+3) over Vikings
The Mitchell Trubisky Era begins at Soldier Field against a division rival that just lost its most important offensive player (Dalvin Cook). The Bears have played well at home against two elite teams (close loss to Atlanta, OT win over Pittsburgh), and the current Vikings are at least a step below that duo. Don’t try to do too much, kid.
The pick: Bears win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The Seahawks worked out well for us last week, especially considering that the Patriots, Falcons and Cowboys knocked out plenty of people.
This week’s task is more difficult. The Steelers (-8.5) are the biggest favorite and should win, but using a Week 5 pick against the sturdy Jags’ defense seems unnecessarily risky. The Eagles are a solid home favorite versus the Cardinals, but they’re also a strong pick at home against the 49ers in Week 8. Maybe we should save them?
With the Pats (vs. SD) and Bengals (vs. IND) also looking good in Week 8, let’s go with the Eagles here.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)