Hello, and welcome to our first edition of "quick hits." Today, we will give you the best bets from both the NBA and a full slate of baseball.
On Weekends, I do not have a lot of time to give out a full breakdown of every one of my picks, so instead, I decided I will give you a quick blurb on each of my best bets of the day.
Just because the working week is over does not mean we are not on the hunt for some winners, and today, I have the best bet for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and my three-best bets of the night in baseball.
Anyway, let's get right into the picks. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are today's winners.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics:
Moneyline: 93% Celtics
Spread: 60% Celtics
The Celtics hit 20 of their 40 threes in the Game 2 blowout to even the series, and even though they lost Game 1, they look damn scary.
Both teams come into this game on a hot streak ATS. The Celtics have covered 13 of their last 17, and the Heat are 14-6 ATS in their last 20.
The spread is a little too large for me, and I do not trust Miami to keep up against one of the NBA's best home-court advantages. Instead, we will look at the total. The total has gone over in both games this series, and nine of the last 12 games between Boston and Miami have gone over the total.
Pick: Over 207.5 (-110)
Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians
Moneyline: 94% Guardians
Runline: 65% Guardians
Shane Bieber's ERA sits at 3.72 entering this game, but a big part of that was giving up seven earned runs earlier in the month against the Blue Jays. Other than that, Bieber has been sharp, but his velo is down, and he is not generating as many whiffs as he did during his 2020 CY young season.
Tonight, he gets to go up against a terrible Tigers lineup. Detroit is ranked last in runs (106), SLG (.313), and wRC+ (77). On the other side, Cleveland is still ranked towards the top of the league in most offensive categories, but over the last week, they are ranked 27th in wRC+ (62), runs (16), and 29th in BA (.193). With two faltering offenses, I am looking at the total.
The total has gone under in four of the last five for Cleveland and 12 of the last 16 have gone under the total for the Tigers.
Pick: Under 8 (-115)
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Moneyline: 96% Astros
Runline: 83% Astros
Houston has Justin Verlander getting the start tonight, and he has been nothing short of incredible since he came back from Tommy John Surgery. The 39-year-old pitcher comes into this game with an ERA of 1.38 and an xFIP of 3.38. He will get to go up against a Rangers offense that is ranked 19th in runs (158), 28th in OBP (.287), 27th in OPS (.641), and 22nd in wRC+ (91).
The Rangers have won five of their last six, but Houston has beaten Texas in 11 of their last 12 matchups, and the Astros have been mashing the ball lately.
Pick: Astros -1.5 (-110)
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Runline: 53% Twins
The Twins have put up 20 runs in their last two games, and over the last week, their offense is ranked eighth in hard-hit rate (35.3%), sixth in OBP (.332), and 13th in wRC+ (115). On the other side, Kansas City is starting to heat up as well at the plate, but they have only won three of their last 12 at home, and they are 4-11 in their last 15 against AL Central opponents.
The under has been the more profitable side of the total for both teams, but we have two offenses that are heating up, and two starting pitchers that have struggled. The total is on the low side, so we will bet on two offenses that have really come on lately.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
Photo: Getty Images