Welcome to week 8's Upset Watch

Only 2 underdogs have won over each of the last two weeks, but with 14 games in week 9, there are more opportunities for us to win.

Why I'm playing Middle Bets to win in 2025

Middle Bets are where we bet the over and under in a market, where the lines differ enough to create a 'middle' gap, where both sides can win if the final total is in the gap. Importantly, the odds are such that losses are inconsequential.

Here's how it looks in BetSmart:

In this example, we bet that Luka would hit exactly 8 assists against the Timberwolves.

We bet Over 7.5 at BetMGM, and Under 8.5 at Bet365. The odds mean that even if he goes Over 8 assists, we lose $2 of the $56 we staked, and if he is under, we would only lose $1.40.

And guess what happened?

Yes, Luka had 8 assists. That means we won both bets. And remember that although we staked $56 in total, the maximum loss we could ever have incurred was only $2, and that's what's so compelling about Middles. You're not going to hit every one, but you don't need to.

At an average of a 5% vig you could lose on every bet, you need to hit only 1 in 20 of your Middle Bets to make a profit. You can bet just $5/$10 stakes on each bet, and play as many profitable markets as possible. Stick with player props, not game lines, and use our profitable markets tool to find bets that hit most frequently.

How does BetSmart help me find Middle Bets?

I've been using Middle Bets for a long time, but since we built BetSmart, I've been able to hone in on markets I had little personal knowledge of, using our data to find an edge. I spend <1hr per day placing bets, often less. It really is very simple, and you can pretty quickly see profit accumulating on a day-to-day basis.

BetSmart scans every market at dozens of sportsbooks in real time. When a Middle Bet is found, it alerts you and you can go directly to most bets via our pages.

BetSmart also filters out unprofitable markets, using the 'Best Bets' tab on each page. These bets are taken from our 'Most profitable markets' table. If a middle bet market is consistently profitable over at least two of 7, 14 or 30 days, it is included in Best Bets.

See all of today's Middle Bets

Get a 14 day free trial plus 50% off with code BET50 by clicking here.

Here are the week 9 picks

Game Picks

About Upset Watch

Weighted Stats

Game Picks

How to use Upset Watch