Welcome to week 8's Upset Watch

We had 2 wins from 4 top picks in week 7, marking a better return than in previous weeks. With a full 16 game slate in week 8, there should be opportunities to get some more underdog wins on the board.

Over the last few weeks we've adapted some of our strategy. The NFL has seen only 10 underdog winners from 44 games (22%) which means being more aware of the number of historical picks, and also revisiting algorithms that have been successful for us in the past.

As a result, our over/under picks are now 18-11 (63%) in the last two weeks since we began using the chart. If you are in our Discord channel, you can see the over/under picks generated by my data-led analysis early in the week, although it's often best to keep an eye on the picks in each individual game analysis section.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 8. Not a VIP member? sign up here!