Maddening.

First the positives - we hit on 2 underdog winners (Houston and Washington), so bizarrely, our straight-up underdog picks are still in profit in 2023. That's not me trying to minimize the overall loss, you know I'm always up front. We've never actually had two weeks like this in a row ever!

We were also unlucky that Seattle didn't convert one of their two red zone trips to win against the Bengals, and that Justin Fields got injured with the Bears/Vikings game in the balance. I thought we had a good chance at a big week for much of the early window.

However, there's no disguising that our underdog cover picks have been terrible, and that dragged us to a second successive poor week. Week 6 saw us somehow lose both of our underdog cover picks by 1 point, including a ridiculous Safety by the Patriots to go from winning to losing, with the last meaningful play of the game. I've actually broken down the win/loss in the chart a little more into wins/covers/overall, so it's clear where the problem has been over the last 2 weeks.

The good news is that we're very close on some picks, but it struck me on Sunday that we're missing out out on good cover opportunities by relying too heavily on our statistical simulations, which, while good last year, have this year been just the wrong side of too many picks.

From this week, we'll be looking to add a little more human input into some picks, so we're on the right side of bigger upsets, which the CPU is unlikely to pick.