Well we almost broke the big one...

Last week was fairly average for us, going 4-5 overall (44.4%) which is fine - small losses and small gains are par for the course when you only pick underdogs.

But week 4 saw us come very close to two very big underdog winners that would have transformed our week from a +$11 profit, to a +$600 one. Yes, two of our bigger picks, the Jaguars and Saints, both ended up losing on last second drives by their opponents, after holding a lead in the last moments of the game, and both turning the ball over on downs in the late 4th quarter, with the ball on their opponents' goal line.

Of course, as we talked about in thee Discord, the good thing is that both of those picks were pretty good, and in fact all of our underdogs except the Bills were in with a real shot of victory. That's good news for us in some ways, as if we're close to these types of winners, eventually we'll hit a few more together and that's when we start really laying it on the sportsbooks. As it happened, those two losing was a bit of a gut punch, but we did win 4 picks - the Vikings, Commanders, Buccaneers, and Raiders.

Top picks

Top picks were the main victims of that bad luck, as both the Jags and Saints had been picks I was keen on. That meant we went 2-4 on them, but thanks to the Commanders being a relatively big hitter (+155), we finished down just -19.8% ROI.

All underdog picks

Once again, our 'extra' underdogs outperformed the top picks, which is something to watch for. We went 2-1, with the Bucs and Raiders both winning, while the Panthers just couldn't keep up with Cincinnati. Unfortunately I also got cold feet on my Titans pick, because of Miami's unknown QB situation, or that would have been yet another winner. That's still another 43.3% ROI, and makes the total profit across all underdogs this season +$556.