Welcome to week 5's Upset Watch

We've hit on 13 underdog winners over the last 3 weeks - what will week 5 bring?

Week 5 is when the NFL tends to normalize in some ways. The sportsbooks have now got a feel for who is legit, and the public tend to be smarter in who they're backing. We have enough sample size to have a pretty good estimate of each team, and perhaps importantly, seasons are now on the line, as if some teams lose their next game, the wheels can completely fall off. Playoff runs are already unlikely for some, while others are starting to think the postseason may not be as far away as it looked in week 1.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 4. Not a VIP member? sign up here!