Week 15 saw a small rebound, and a profit on our Top picks, meaning we've now been profitable in 6 of the last 9 weeks. That's a very good return in a tough year for underdog winners generally. The problem for us hasn't been winning weeks - 7 of 15 is good for almost 47%, which would be profitable most years - but the nature of the losses.

The biggest issue? We are on pace for a record number of weeks with 3 or fewer underdog winners. When that happens, the problem we have is that sometimes, instead of going 2-3 or 2-4, we've gone 1-4 or 1-5, meaning it's a blowout that week. For context, we'd gone 4 seasons without zero underdog winners in a week. Somehow, we managed it this season twice!

Thankfully, as I mentioned, we've managed to somehow keep things steady over the last couple of months of the season, and honestly? We've been pretty close to some big wins too. Remember that Broncos/Chiefs loss? That missed Field Goal alone would have almost put us in profit on the season if the Broncos had made it.

I've posted this table a few times this year, but it illustrates how slim pickings have been. Is the NFL changing? Perhaps. The gap between the haves and the have-nots seems larger than it has been for some years, but then, would we have said the same in 2013 or 2017? I suspect so. As always, the key thing will be better decision-making by those clubs at the bottom of the chain.

But don't worry, for us, things don't change at Upset Watch. Ultimately, 29% of games have ended in an upset this year - down from an average of 33% in the previous decade - but we're winning on 36.2% of our picks, so while it's not at that 40% target mark, it's not far off, and a couple of big wins can change everything.

Parlays

One thing that's certainly changed for me in the last month is to try and cash in on the trends we're seeing with high percentage plays. Given what we've seen this season, it seems foolish not to look at turning 2 or 3 favorites into a +300 or so parlay. I'm not a huge fan of favorites, but I'm certainly being judicious about which favorites I mark as 'top' picks. Last week it was the Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs, Cardinals, Commanders and Jets - which returned a +600 parlay.

My parlay luck continued with a big return on player touchdowns for the second week in a row - a +2100 parlay featuring Rachaad White, Justice Hill and Josh Allen, carrying on from a +1500 parlay the week prior. My tactic is a 4-leg parlay, featuring a couple of more likely scorers (for example, White and Allen), coupled with a player who I think has better value (this week I felt Hill was likely to see time at some stage), and a long shot QB.

This tactic isn't guaranteed to win, but my principle as things currently stand is to diversify my portfolio of bets alongside my underdog picks, and I suggest that's a good tactic all round.

Top picks

2-2 - I won on the Buccaneers over the Chargers and Cowboys over the Panthers, both of which I locked in early as I loved them. The Dolphins and Seahawks I didn't love and both started as favorite picks, but with 4 underdogs likely to win, I felt that two from the Bills, Dolphins and Seahawks had the best shot. The Bills were the pick! Still, we hit on 2 of the 4 underdogs who won last week, and should have followed our Simulator on the Rams!

All underdog picks

Unfortunately, our only other lean - the Steelers - didn't come through. I didn't love that pick anyway, and should have pulled it after the Pickens injury news.

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