Welcome to week 16's Upset Watch

As we enter the business end of the season, so much is at stake for NFL teams, and getting ahead of which underdogs have a chance and which don't is critical. I've published this week's column early as there are some picks that I think are time sensitive, so check below to see who I'm referring to!

As always, you can expect the picks to be in provisionally on Thursday, with analysis forthcoming for all games over the stretch Wednesday-Sunday, prioritizing those that are early in the schedule and most likely underdog picks. If you wish to discuss anything, head on over to our Discord, where we chat through selections, I try to talk people out of crazy bets like the 49ers in the snow, and we generally celebrate and commiserate together.

Plus it's just nice. No BS, no real world, just a bunch of people chatting NFL.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 16. Not a VIP member? sign up here!