Welcome to week 15's Upset Watch.

Last week we went 3-2 on our underdog winner picks, nailing a +200 or greater pick for the third time in four weeks. The Patriots, Bills and Broncos all won as underdogs, generating a total profit for us of +$290, and pushing our profit over the last five weeks up to $555.

This week is critical for the playoff chances of a number of teams, and with a lot to play for, and some surprise winners in week 14, there's a lot of chances for an upset if we play our cards right.

If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:

With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick. Last season, we had our third straight winning season, with a combined winning total of over +$8,000 in that time.

Starting every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning or covering than others. These are not pool picks, and we only track the performance of our underdog winner and cover picks. Our aim is to come out of each season profitable, which we've done 3 seasons in a row.

Read on for this week's quick pick list, and click any game on the left for analysis added between Wednesday and Friday (or later where injuries are in play).