Welcome to week 13's Upset Watch

Last week was a big challenge, hence a smaller number of picks than normal.

This week, it's Thanksgiving, and with 16 games and a slate with some good opportunities to rebound, hopefully the NFL games will yield a more underdog-friendly result for us.

This is a special time of the year for me. 12 years ago, I set Pickwatch up on a whim, wanting to see where I fit in with all of the experts in the media. I didn't know where it would lead, and my excel spreadsheet didn't do an awful lot, but it snowballed over the following few years to eventually become a group of people that work together to provide picks, insights and data to help you win. I'm always thankful for the people who support us, and it's a great motivation for me to hear from you in our Discord and share in the wins and losses!

As always for Thanksgiving, the week will begin with all 3 Thursday games being picked, with analysis of all of those games on Wednesday. On Thursday, we'll cover off the other underdog picks, and Friday-Sunday we'll add analysis of every other game in a busy week.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 12. Not a VIP member? sign up here!