It's Upset Watch time...

What's that? You'd like some top of the range pre-amble banter? Well you have come to the wrong place my friend, this is a serious column for serious folks only.

This week we're taking on the sports betting landscape, as New Jersey heads to the Supreme Court on Monday, and rather than bury it in Upset Watch, I've given my take on it it's own column.

I'm always interested in hearing from our readers on sports betting in general. If you agree or disagree with anything I say on it, I'm open to different opinions. My own take... well, as you probably are aware, I have no problem with sports betting, and think the NFL and other sports leagues are burying their head in the sand if they think it will stop. Over $150bn was wagered 'illegally' last season, yet bettors are more or less free to bet using offshore bookies. It's a crazy dynamic, and the sooner legalization and reform happen, the better for everyone.

Also, we have a sports betting analytics tool in development that is going to blow your mind. I mean really. We're going to bring you useful statistics in a way you've never seen before, and it's going to be personal to y... I've said too much.

Last week's results

There were just two upsets in the NFL last week, Buffalo beating the Chiefs (which we had ranked at no.5 in the list of potential upsets) and the Jags screwing up in the Blaine Gabbert Revenge Bowl. That was one of our safer picks, so I'm disappointed with that as I had a feeling on Friday that I wanted to change it based on some of the injuries the Jags had, and I neglected to do so. Ho hum, unfortunately that's the game we're in...

As a result, I went 8-8 vs the spread, my worst result of the season so far, and a -4 unit loss on the week overall.

Criteria

Units

Top 5

-15.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

-21.5

All

-4

Season Results

We're still killing it overall, with a huge margin of error achieved by our success early in the year. In fact, it's clearly those games between 6-11 that are winning the most for me right now, as favorites continue to cover.

Criteria

Units

Top 5

-14.5

Top 5 + Bottom 5

0

All

+44.5

This week's picks:

1 - Detroit (+3) @ Baltimore

Are the Ravens a better team than they were? Erm, yes, but they have beaten the Texans, Packers and Dolphins in the last 4 games. They have also beaten the Browns (disregard) the Raiders (QB: EJ Manuel) and the Bengals (week 1). I think you can make a reasonable case that every semi-competent team they've faced this season has resulted in them losing. That's the Jags, Steelers, Bears (semi-competent is a stretch...) Vikings and Titans.

Meanwhile the Lions are just utterly infuriating, but I have a good feeling with them going to Baltimore as road dogs. It won't be too cold, and I think they should be favorites to win this.

2 - Minnesota (+3) @ Atlanta

My reasoning here is simple: The Falcons have again improved, but the Vikings are on a 7 game win streak and a 6 game cover streak. Those are not numbers to ignore.

Somehow, I think the Vikings will find a way to beat the Falcons and next week, Case Keenum will really find himself annointed the starter for the rest of the season by Mike Zimmer. Note to Zim: Keeping people on their toes by not praising them too much isn't really the same when you tell them that you're only doing it to keep them on their toes.

3 - San Francisco (+3) @ Chicago

I like the 49ers and Jimmy G more than I like the Bears and Mitch T. Seriously, Trubisky is at the stage where he is in real danger of getting yanked for Mike Glennon now that we've seen a true body of work to understand what he is like as a QB right now. He completes a horrendous 52.8% of passes, which is simply not enough in the NFL today. What is worse is that (as a Bears fan) I have seen him play and the passes he is being asked to complete are largely standard, short range trows that you would expect him to do better with.

Then you have the 49ers. I love Garoppolo, and I think the trade for him was a masterstroke by Kyle Shanahan. As he shows on the final drive of the game last week, he can play football, and the slightly colder weather of Chicago won't phase him at all having played in New England.

Big road win here, the type that has people wondering aloud about Fox and Trubisky.

4 - Kansas City @ NY jets (+3.5)

These spreads are tight, right? We're at the point of the season where the mismatches are big, and the rest of the games are one big mush of play-doh that has gone the colour of... well, it'd gone brown.

In this mush we find the free-falling Chiefs and the Jets, who are turning out to be quite the thorn in my side over the last two weeks. My heart says the Chiefs get back on track here, and from a fantasy football perspective, I'd quite like it if they would. On the other hand, the Jets consistently over-perform against teams who expect to beat them, and I fancy they will run the Chiefs close, particularly as KC struggle to score.

5 - Philadelphia @ Seattle (+6)

Hmm. I don't think this one is as obvious as saying the Seahawks are at home in prime time, but the Seahawks are at home in prime time...

Look, if there's one guy I'm not betting on to lose by more than a field goal in a big game, one that could well define whether they make the playoffs or not, it's Russell Wilson. You'd have to be borderline insane to think otherwise. 6 points? Yes please, even if he is facing the best team in the NFL.

And the rest of this week's games:

6 - Washington (-1.5) @ Dallas

7 - Denver (-1.5) @ Miami

8 - Carolina @ New Orleans (-4.5)

9 - Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Cincinnati

10 - LA Rams (-7) @ Arizona

11 - Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-9.5)

12 - Houston @ Tennessee (-7)

13 - New England (-9) @ Buffalo

14 - Cleveland @ LA Chargers (-14)

15 - NY Giants @ Oakland (-9)

16 - Tampa Bay @ Green Bay (PK)