It's Thanksgiving week, which means 3 Thursday night games that could potentially be upsets.

It's a busy week for Pickwatch, and you can expect that the expert picks will be in a little sooner (hopefully...) for many networks this week. But let's not concern ourselves with that right now! This is Upset Watch, in which we highlight those games that are most likely to be an upset, both straight up and vs the spread.

How did we do last week?

Last week:

Criteria

Units

Top 5

-6

Top 5 + Bottom 5

+2.5

All

+11

A mixed bag, with again, our overall score being boosted by a solid positive week, but the 'top 5' criteria suffered a minor blip, with only 2/5 winning. I mentioned the last two weeks that it may be time to start betting 'top 3' depending on the schedule as we go through the rest of the year, and that kind of seals it.

Overall:

Criteria

Units

Top 5

1

Top 5 + Bottom 5

21.5

All

48.5

Conversely, on the year we are absolutely crushing our ATS picks by virtue of the system that not only predicts upsets, but also avoids those games that are 'safe'. In a year where favorites are covering 51.7% of the time, that's pretty good going, as I'm nailing 65.3% of the non-upsets.

In a roundabout way, this is the aim of the column, to not only rank the best upsets, but the worst. Therefore, I hereby deem this column an unqualified success, and anyone who says otherwise is a liar, a fraud and a charlatan.

And I demand satisfaction!

Anyhoo, week 12 you say? Let's do it...

1 - New Orleans (+2.5) @ LA Rams

I like both of these teams, and there is an extra significance to this game when you consider the NFC playoff picture. A win for the Rams would not only draw them level with the Saints, but give them a tie-breaker that would serve them well at the end of the season.

The Rams are favored at home by 2.5pts, which is roughly what you'd give a team for being at home, so these two teams are as even as they come on paper. The Saints have a better track record against bigger teams though, beating the Lions, Panthers and Redskins, and winning their last 8 games straight. In fact, they also covered the spread 6/8 times too, albeit only once as underdogs (Carolina week 3).

Meanwhile, the Rams, as I mentioned last week when backing the Vikes, are a different proposition against quality opposition. 'This is the atmosphere you're going to have to learn how to play and win in' said LT Andrew Whitworth, a man who knows from his time in Cinci what it's like to be absolutely useless in the Playoffs when the going gets tough. Have they learned how to win? It's possible, but equally, the Saints are on a huge roll, and I'm comfortable saying they're the top upset pick this week.

2 - LA Chargers @ Dallas (+2)

The Cowboys come in off the back of an uncharacteristic Dak Prescott implosion last week, with their playoff hopes clinging to this game in a big way. They need to at least keep pace with the wild-card race at this stage, and at 5-5 with the Falcons at 6-4 (but holding a tie-breaker over the Cowboys), it's a big opportunity to shift the narrative and momentum back towards 'positive'

But what of this game? Well, I said last week that the Chargers are a better team than people assume, thanks to a lousy record of 4-6. They can cause any team problems, but equally, they strike me as a team that has a big prime-time implosion in it, and on Thanksgiving, at Dallas? Sounds about right.

3 - Tennessee @ Indianapolis (+3)

I backed Indy against the Steelers in week 10, and was very nearly rewarded with an outright win (fun fact, the sportsbook I use pays put after a 2-score margin is achieved by a team, so I still won outright...). Nonetheless, they covered the spread for the third straight game, and I think have a favorable matchup against the Titans, who have not covered in 4 games, and in fact just once in the last 7 games - albeit in the reverse fixture. SInce then, the Colts have gained offensive momentum, while the Titans have largely struggled to put points on the board, so I'm going Colts. Get me on the Jacoby Brissett bandwagon. What's that? There is no Jacoby Brissett bandwagon? Then get me a bandwagon and some paint. Actually, what the hell is a bandwagon?

4 - Carolina @ NY Jets (+4.5)

Last week's 5 point loss to the Bucs - described by all who saw it as 'I can't really remember watching it, what are you talking about?...' - was the first time the Jets had lost vs the spread in an incredible 7 games. That's how underrated this team is, and I think until the Panthers get Greg Olsen back, they're going to struggle for consistency on offense. Last week, they put up more than 23 points for the first time in 5 games, and considering it was the Dolphins, does that even count? I don't know. I mean yes, technically, the Dolphins are an NFL team. That's as far as I'm willing to go.

5 - Buffalo (+10) @ Kansas City

This spread is a bit of a joke. The Bills were shambolic against the Chargers, but they had a guy in Nathan Peterman who was cataclysmically bad. They have flipped back to Tyrod Taylor, which is a wise move primarily because it wasn't Taylor who was the cause of their problems in the first place.

Meanwhile the Chiefs are beginning to panic. They picked up Darrelle Revis today, and given what we saw from him last year, that seems like a big risk by a team trying to stave off freefall. I'm not sure that the Bills are going to win, but the Chiefs haven't scored many points lately, and have gotten away from their strong rushing attack that ground down teams early in the year. I like the Bills to keep this within a TD.

The rest of this week's picks:

6 - Houston @ Baltimore (-7)

I considered the upset here (hence how high they are) but I think the Ravens have quietly turned a corner, shutting out bad teams twice in the last three games, which I don't recall any team doing in recent years. I think they'll be looking forward to facing another backup in Tom Savage...

7 - Minnesota(-3) @ Detroit

The Lions are the team I'm most unsure about in the NFL. They move the ball very very well, but they often fail to convert that into wins. The Vikings are a great team to watch, albeit they can still make hard work of their dominance at times. I think this will be really close, and if the Lions can't convert, it could be a surprisingly low scoring game.

8 - Miami (+16.5) @ New England

I don't think the Dolphins will win, but can they cover this spread? Maybe. I picked the Patriots at first, but the Dolphins can potentially move the ball against the New England 'defense'. You have to call them that.

9 - Denver @ Oakland (-5)

I sometimes say 'just nope', but I think I'll witter on a bit here - the dearth of QB options around the league is pretty bad, albeit as a Bears fan, I'd like to remind people of the pre-Grossman era of Jonathan Quinn, Craig Krenzel and Chad Hutchinson that was arguably far worse than today. I think sometimes we get to the point where we say that today is way worse than it ever was. I'd disagree, in that I think we just expect a great deal more of our QB's since the 2008 draft class of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, that showed the innate value of getting a Franchise player at that position.

Here's a list of bad QBs from the mid-00s that everyone is conveniently forgetting. When you're reading them, remember that at the time, nobody said the NFL was any worse as a whole for their presence, they simply realised that the nature of the sport dictates that some absolute garbage players will try and fail at the highest level, and teams will have to reset as a result and draft someone better:

  • Joey Harrington
  • Andrew Walter
  • Aaron Brooks
  • Kyle Boller
  • Trent Dilfer
  • Charlie Frye
  • Damon Huard
  • Brad Johnson
  • Bruce Gradkowski
  • Matt Leinart
  • J.T. O'Sullivan
  • J.P. Losman
  • Cleo Lemon
  • Brooks Bollinger
  • Kellen Clemens
  • Brady Quinn
  • Seneca Wallace
  • The mummified remains of Vinny Testaverde
  • Tyler Thigpen
  • Shaun Hill
  • Chris Simms
  • Gus Frerotte
  • David Carr
  • JaMarcus Russell
  • Trent Edwards

At some point, all of these QB's were starters in a 4 year span between 2005-2009. Bad players have always existed, we're just desperate to talk the NFL down right now, and we need to collectively get a grip.

10 - NY Giants @ Washington (-7)

I think last week's squeaker against the Chiefs was actually quite dispiriting for any team that wasn't the Giants. Utterly failing to score against a team that also can't score is not something to shout about.

The Redskins are a far better team.

11 - Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-8.5)

I've learned my lesson. It's a big spread against a team that struggles on offense in Cinci, but screw the Browns, who are 2-8 vs the spread this season.

12 - Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-9.5)

The Falcons have definitely turned a corner, while the Bucs remain rooted in 3rd gear. Ah, just realized I need to explain the concept of gears in a car... Erm... they're in neutral... or Park maybe...

13 - Chicago (+13.5) @ Philadelphia

The Eagles might play no kicker this week, so I'm going to take the Bears to cover here, because it has the makings of a game the Eagles win by 13 points after not bothering to kick an extra point. That sounds like something that could happen doesn't it?

14 - Jacksonville (-5.5) @ Arizona

The GABBERT BOWL! I love the fact that running-joke Gabbert came back last week and showed that he's way, way better than some of the rubbish kicking around the NFL. My dream is that Ponder, Gabbert and Locker reunite for the law firm/prog rock group that 2017 so desperately needs.

15 - Seattle (-6.5) @ San Francisco

This was a tricky one, because the Niners have played harder recently. It was a good motivational tactic by Kyle Shanahan to effectively shift the focus to 2018 in a disastrous year. It would be easy to simply cave in, as the Browns have. Instead, I sense some of these players are fighting to be part of the Garropolo-led resurgence of the Niners.

But I'm picking the Seahawks, so just ignore all of that.

16 - Green Bay @ Pittsburgh (-14)

I can't back a team that can't score a point at home against the Ravens, even with this big ol' tempter of a spread.