A Note to all Upset Watch Readers:
Hello to you all and welcome to Upset Watch. I wanted to take the opportunity to give you a heads up - You will have noticed, I'm sure, that over the last 3 weeks in particular, injuries and Covid have been massive factors in a number of games.
For us, these factors can work both ways. Getting an early pick in the week and having a player on the opposition not play can help, but more often than not, injuries can throw both teams' plans into the air and change our picks.
So, this is a heads up that from now on, I'll be updating this article on Sunday mornings with any injury related changes, or whenever major news hits.
I will also try to forewarn where injuries are an integral part of our decision earlier in the week, so that you can make better decisions about which games to get on early and late.
Individual picks ($100 on each underdog and underdog cover pick): +$1,640
Double Round Robin Picks ($10 on parlays of 2, covering every combination of underdog picks) +$723.28
Treble Round Robin Picks ($10 on parlays of 3, covering every combination of our underdog picks) +$1,269.98
Total of all parlays (doubles and trebles): +$1,993.98
Last week was a strange one, and depending on how you used Upset Watch, you either returned a small profit or a small loss, with the single game bets on our wins (Philly, Minnesota) and covers (Detroit, Carolina) offsetting our round robin bets.
Despite this being our leanest time of the year, we're still yet to have a week where at least 2 of our underdog winners don't win, and that's a success in itself. I think last week was full of missed opportunities, but the main one - Washington beating the Bucs - was not forseeable, and anyone who tells you it was is a blinkered Washington fan, or genuinely flipping coins.
Here, we do neither, and that's why we're up by so much. The aim is not to get every game right, it's to get a smaller number of high value moneyline picks correct, and gain a massive profit in doing so.
This week, the slate is far better for upsets and we expect to be in play for a big payday from our selections, including at least one big underdog who nobody will have...
How to bet using Upset Watch
A reader commented last week on the performance of our favorite picks - again, to re-emphasize for newer readers, what we have here is a tried and tested betting system. It isn't about getting 16 right, and there may be some confusion - those picks are there to explain more why those teams do not appear in our underdog column, but to be clear, they are not specifically the reason the column is written.
We know some of them will win, some will lose, but the reason they're down there is because they don't have any statistical basis for an underdog win.
That doesn't mean that big underdogs down there won't win, it means that if they do, as with Washington beating Tampa Bay in week 10, it will be one of those games where it just comes out of nowhere and the pick would not have been based on data available before the game.
Due to the nature of underdog picks, you are unlikely to land a parlay of more than 4 teams winning in any week. We select the underdogs that have the best chance heading into games, and our success record is second to none in the industry.
We recommend Round Robins as a way of maximizing your profits from the picks in this column. You will still win by backing individual selections, but getting your head around Round Robins will change how you bet and win money.
A Round Robin is essentially, a number of smaller parlays within a parlay that mean you don't need all of your picks to win to pay out.
Rather than betting on a big parlay of (for example) 5 underdogs to win with huge moneyline odds, you can hedge your bets by betting on combinations of 2, 3 or 4 of them to win.
- For example, with 5 selections, there are 10 combinations of 3 winners that are possible. Rather than placing these all manually, a Round Robin option from your bookmaker automatically calculates the combinations for you.
- If any 3 teams win (teams A, B and C for example) , you'll win that bet - even if the other 2 picks lost.
- The smaller the parlays, the smaller the payouts - but the more likely you'll return a profit.
- Round Robins are essential for making the most of Upset Watch.
With underdogs, the moneyline odds are greater for a reason - they're harder to get right! Because we're good at this, your chances of getting 2, 3 or 4 moneyline underdogs correct are vastly improved, as proven by our record.
So far in 2021, we've hit 2 underdogs 4 times, 3 underdogs twice, and 4 underdogs an incredible 4 times in 10 weeks. That's why almost 5,000 people are currently subscribed to Pickwatch Pro and Upset Watch!
For more info on how to bet using Upset Watch, check out this article.