Welcome to Upset Watch
Every week we look through the NFL's schedule and give you the best data-led picks that generate the most consistent profit in the industry.
As it's Super Bowl week, that schedule is of course, very simple. There's one game to pick, and we obviously want to get it right, just as we did in 5 of the last 6 seasons.
It's been a hell of a ride in 2021 and 2022, and this is my last chance to say Thank you to the 6,500+ subscribers to Pickwatch Pro, all of whom have played a big role in moving us forward as a company.
Your support is what makes columns like this easier to write, because the reception is always reassurance that whether we win or lose, (and let's not forget that we mostly win...), some people just get it, and they know the value in what we're doing here.
So thanks once more, and keep an eye on your inbox, as Pro subscribers will be given the chance to join the Open Beta of our new mobile app when we launch later in the year!
As always, this analysis is part of our Pickwatch Pro package, and this week, you can get access to all Pro features for 1 month for just $1 (normal price $7.99 per month)
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Season Results
Season singles Profit: +$3,395 ($100 on each money line pick)
Season doubles profit: ($10 on every parlay of 2 from our money line picks): +$1,550
Season trebles profit: ($10 on every parlay of 3 from our money line picks): +$1,825
Total profit of all 2x and 3x parlays: +$3,375
We're going to finish up with a +$3,000 profit, which is of course amazing, and more than doubles last season's total. The combination parlays have paid off for me personally, generating a big profit with less outlay, and I encourage you all to consider reading my mid-season explainer on how to use them to your advantage!
I want to finish the season with a reminder about why this column is so important to me.
I have seen people throw money, bad after good, on favorites and 'can't miss' teams. I have seen them lose a lot more than they win, because often, once a crowd starts to believe in a team, you just can't picture them losing.
I know the opposite is true. That underdogs win 33%+ of NFL games, and that if you have an open mind, then you don't need 80% of your picks to win to make a profit. If you're betting on underdogs, anything over 50% is a guaranteed profit, and if you can get a few big ones in there, as we did this season, then you will realize that there's nothing sweeter than an underdog victory.
Now, on with the analysis of the two teams...
Team Profiles:
Strengths
Defensive Line
The Bengals are one of the more underrated defenses in the NFL. As we saw in Kansas City, they have a habit of starting slowly, but being able to react well to what their opponents show them.
The Bengals gave up an average of 12.4 points in the first half of games (25th in the NFL), but allowed just 8.9 points in the second half of games (3rd in the NFL).
The defensive line in particular is a threat to Matthew Stafford, averaging 2.5 sacks per game (11th), but having 4 against the Chiefs in the AFC title game to seal a huge come-from-behind victory that was largely built on how well the defense stopped Patrick Mahomes and stopped the Chiefs closing the game out with run and short pass plays.
Opposing unit: The Rams offensive line is one of the best in football, ranking 5th in sacks allowed per game.