_by Shaun Lowrie, Editor
Here's our pick for the Colts @ Texans matchup tonight, with both straight up and ATS predictions. Last week, we had a 10-5 record against the spread, which we're actively looking to beat this week. As opposed to trying to be worse. As always, check out the straight up and ATS picks by clicking the links.
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Straight Up Consensus: IND 86%
ATS Consensus: IND 65%
Pickwatch Straight Up Pick: IND
Pickwatch ATS Pick: IND
We won't pretend we like this game much. Seems to me like this could be what is known in the business as 'a trap'. Then again, we think of Ryan Fitzpatrick and every single time we find it hard to trust the Texans against anyone at this stage.
We've developed somewhat of a love-in when it comes to the Colts. On a personal level, I believe they're one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, consistently being tarnished with the AFC South's mediocre brush. I think that's harsh, and the Colts will be a difficult team to outscore as they march on. They aren't built to hold their own on defence, but they've scored 20pts or more in every game so far this season, while the Texans have done so just twice. And one of those times was against the Raiders...
We're sticking with the Colts. We don't buy the TNF 'blowout' business, but we'll take a little opportunity to stick the boot in while we're on. There have been a few columns this week by respected NFL journalists citing various statistics that disprove the notion that Thursday night games are less competitive than their weekend counterparts. The only problem? I don't think that's why people don't like TNF.
It's nothing you can prove with statistics, but the over-saturation of the NFL is reaching breaking point. We all love the game, that much is not in question, but the NFL is creating it's own perfect storm of events that could - and we know it's a big COULD - bring about the start of Mark Cuban's forecast of people starting to turn off.
Why? Well, we have a theory. You're going to need to bear with us on this one, because it's a bit existential...
Do you remember what happened in the NFL last week? What about the week before that? Do you remember last season at all?
Of course you do... maybe. Kind of. It's a bit fuzzy. When did the games finish? Was it yesterday? What day is today? Where the hell am I?
Yes, that's right, you're officially trapped inside the NFL's midseason bubble! A bubble that is reliant on NOW and NEXT and THIS WEEK. What does last week matter? It's done. Gone. Forget it. Your team has another chance to win this week! Why would you care about the past?!
It's sad, but the NFL is so obsessed with the future, that it's forgotten how important it is to appreciate what happens on a week-to-week basis. By the time Monday Night Football comes round, people are already starting to think about their fantasy lineup on Thursday. We know, of course, that by Tuesday, people are making picks for games FIVE days away! Amazing.
And of course, TNF is at the heart of this madness. We won't pretend it isn't good for us (Thursdays and Sundays are our busiest days), but it's not something I enjoy on a sporting level. It all feels slightly contrived, like the NFL sat down and tried to work out exactly where they could place a game to absolutely guarantee the maximum amount of money out of fans and broadcast partners. The games themselves leave much to be desired (Bucs and Falcons? Please...) and it's no good telling us how great those games are when we don't get the full Sunday experience with it. Redzone, fantasy stats, game breaks to see someone muff a punt, you know, the really good stuff?
Nowhere is the NFL's short-termism more evident than TNF. People want the time to let last week sink in before they move on. Can you believe it is already week 6? That's because every week by Tuesday morning we're all scrambling to find out the latest injury news for the next game - just two days away.
Literally, the NFL never stops during the season, and it is occasionally to our detriment. Even the most die-hard fans need time to appreciate what they're watching every now and then.
Long story short? Colts win...
