Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/29/2025 7:10 PM EDT

We have your Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Seattle Mariners hit the road to face the Cleveland Guardians.

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Seattle Mariners -158 (FanDuel) / Cleveland Guardians +138 (BetRivers)
Best Spread Odds: Seattle Mariners -1.0 -126 (DraftKings) / Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -130 (Caesars)
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 -118 (DraftKings) / Under 8.0 -120 (BetMGM)

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-29
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
TV: -

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Seattle Mariners (72-62) travel to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (66-66) in what promises to be a pivotal matchup for both teams. The Mariners are currently holding onto the final AL Wild Card spot, sitting five games ahead of the Guardians, who are desperate to close the gap. This game features a compelling pitching duel between Seattle's George Kirby (8-6, 4.05 ERA) and Cleveland's Logan Allen (7-10, 4.35 ERA).

George Kirby has been a consistent force for the Mariners, boasting a 3.20 ERA over his last 10 starts, with only one notable stumble. He has also performed well in his two previous appearances at Progressive Field, holding a 2.00 ERA. The Mariners' offense, led by power hitters like Cal Raleigh (50 HRs) and Eugenio Suarez (104 RBIs), has the potential to break open games if their bats heat up.

On the other side, Logan Allen will look to rebound from a tough outing where he gave up nine runs in his last start against Texas. Despite that recent struggle, Allen has historically fared well against Seattle, holding a 2-0 record with a 2.13 ERA in two career starts against them. The Guardians' offense will need timely hitting from players like Nolan Jones and Kyle Manzardo, who delivered clutch hits in their recent 4-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Mariners are coming off a 4-3 win against the Padres, while the Guardians also secured a 4-3 victory over the Rays. This game is crucial for Cleveland's playoff aspirations, but Seattle's balanced attack and recent form make them a formidable opponent.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Recent head-to-head matchups between the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians have seen mixed results, with both teams securing victories. Looking at the pitching matchups, Logan Allen has a career record of 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA against the Mariners in two starts, demonstrating his ability to limit Seattle's offense. Conversely, George Kirby holds a 0-1 record with a 6.11 ERA against the Guardians in his career.

In a recent matchup on June 14, 2025, the Guardians defeated the Mariners 4-3. Another notable game on April 3, 2024, saw the Guardians shut out the Mariners 8-0. However, the Mariners have also had their share of success, including a 6-3 victory over Cleveland on June 20, 2024. When George Kirby faced the Guardians on June 18, 2024, Cleveland secured an 8-5 win.

Analyzing specific pitcher-batter matchups from past games:

When George Kirby pitched against the Guardians, the Guardians' offense scored 2 runs on 5 hits, with 2 walks and 12 strikeouts, while the Mariners scored 0 runs on 5 hits, 4 walks, and 8 strikeouts.
In a game featuring Luis Castillo for Seattle and Logan Allen for Cleveland, the Guardians scored 6 runs on 9 hits, 4 walks, and 8 strikeouts, compared to the Mariners' 3 runs on 5 hits, 5 walks, and 5 strikeouts.
Another contest with Bryan Woo for Seattle and Tanner Bibee for Cleveland saw the Guardians put up 8 runs on 9 hits, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts, while the Mariners managed 0 runs on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 14 strikeouts.

These past encounters highlight the variability in outcomes and the importance of pitching performance in this series.

Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline

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The Seattle Mariners are the favored team in this matchup, and for good reason. NumberFire projects the Mariners to win with a 64.8% probability. Sharp betting insights also lean heavily towards Seattle, with sharp money showing a 59.21% and 59.14% sharp win percentage on the Mariners' moneyline. While Logan Allen has a favorable historical record against Seattle, his recent outing where he allowed nine runs raises concerns. George Kirby, on the other hand, has been in excellent form, maintaining a 3.20 ERA over his last 10 starts and performing well in his previous appearances at Progressive Field. The Mariners also boast a deeper and more potent lineup, which should provide ample run support. Given Seattle's strong pitching, consistent offensive production, and current momentum, backing the Mariners to win outright is the most confident pick for this game. You can find the best odds for the Seattle Mariners Moneyline at -158 with FanDuel.

Top Player Prop Picks

Josh Naylor (CLE) Over 0.5 Hits

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Josh Naylor has been a consistent presence at the plate for the Cleveland Guardians. He has hit the over on his 0.5 hits line in 100% of his last 5 games, and 70% of his last 10 games. Over the entire season, Naylor has hit the over in 75.41% of his games, averaging 1.07 hits per game. His recent form, averaging 1.4 hits over his last 5 games, makes this a strong play. You can bet on Josh Naylor to get over 0.5 hits at -200 odds with BetRivers.

George Kirby (SEA) Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs

Seattle Mariners pitcher George Kirby has consistently gone deep into games, demonstrating strong endurance and effectiveness. He has hit the over on 17.5 pitcher outs in 80% of his last 5 starts and 80% of his last 10 starts. Over these periods, he has averaged 17.8 and 17.7 pitcher outs, respectively. While his season-long hit rate for this prop is 58.82%, his recent performance indicates a strong trend towards longer outings. Given his solid form and favorable history at Progressive Field, expect Kirby to pitch well into the game. You can find the best odds for George Kirby to record over 17.5 pitcher outs at -179 with Pinnacle.

Brayan Rocchio (CLE) Over 0.5 Bases

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Brayan Rocchio has shown a knack for getting on base, making the over 0.5 bases prop an appealing pick. He has hit the over in 60% of his last 5 games and 60% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.8 and 1.0 bases respectively. More impressively, against the Seattle Mariners in 2024, Rocchio hit the over in 80% of his matchups, averaging 1.2 bases. His season-long hit rate for this prop stands at 51.76%. With a favorable historical performance against the Mariners and solid recent form, Rocchio is well-positioned to get at least one base in this game. The best odds for Brayan Rocchio to get over 0.5 bases are -140 with Caesars.