by Shaun Lowrie, Editor.
With week 5 rolling round, we've taken some time this week to ensure our Against the Spread picks start to resemble a more complete view of columnists around the NFL. As you can see below, we've added 21 more experts to our pool, which should be more than enough to find someone worth following. A few are still over the fabled 60% too.
Here's our Week 5 ATS picks. It's our first ATS weekly picks, and we'll be keeping an eye on our units to give you a rough idea of how they play out. You can also find our overall expert table at the bottom of this page, or by clicking here:
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@ 
Line: GB -9.5
ATS Consensus: GB 69%
Straight Up Consensus: GB 99%
Pickwatch ATS Pick GB
Pickwatch Pick: GB
As we're writing this retrospectively, it would be unfair to castigate those who picked the Vikings... but seriously what a major error. I realize we're getting closed to the fabled 'double digit dog' rule, but this was definitely one that he Vikings were going to struggle to keep close.
Interestingly, there are still teams I like the Viking against, particularly Buffalo in a couple of weeks. I also think that at home, with Teddy Bridgewater, they should be covering all but the smallest points spreads.
@ 
Line: CAR -2.5
ATS Consensus: CHI 55%
Straight Up Consensus: CHI 66%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: CHI 1 Unit
Pickwatch Pick: CHI
Here's my rule for anything under 3 - go with who you think will win. You know how the NFL goes by now in terms of tit-for-tat scoring, and this year we've had very few games settled by <3 points. In fact last week there were none at all.
Why the Bears? Well, we've seen enough of the Panthers lately to suggest they aren't in great shape, and the Bears, for all their faults, are capable of dominating on offence. Can the Panthers cover Martellus Bennett, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery? Probably not, but more importantly, the Panthers run game is the key to this team, and they're currently banged up. That's not going to help Cam Newton whatsoever.
@ 
Line: TEN -2
ATS Consensus: CLE 71%
Straight Up Consensus: CLE 77%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: CLE 4 Units
Pickwatch Pick: CLE
Let's just stop right here: What have the Browns done in the first few weeks of the season to suggest they aren't a better team than the Titans? They have a better defence, a better run game, a better passing game, a better QB, hell even a better gameplan. They've been unlucky to not be 2-1.
They are the exception to the above rule of <3pts, with 2 of their 3 games falling into that category, and their biggest loss being just 3pts in week 1. They could feasibly have been 3-0 at this stage, and that's against 3 playoff calibre teams in Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Baltimore.
Meanwhile Jake Locker may return for the Titans, but we're doubtful that he is fully fit, and even if he is... well as I say, the Browns are the better team here and I even think they could win by more than a touchdown.
@ 
Line: PHI -6.5
ATS Consensus: PHI 61%
Straight Up Consensus: PHI 98%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: STL 2 Units
Pickwatch Pick: PHI
Can I just take 2 seconds to praise Austin Davis? When I saw him first in week 2, I said 'here's a guy with CHARACTER'. Not in a 'here's a Peyton Manning who will never be in trouble with the law', kind of way, more a Brett Favre 'Here's a dude who will play fast and loose, but his team mates will respect because he isn't aloof' type of way.
Coincidentally, he actually played at Favre's Alma Mater Southern Miss. That's not a lazy stereotype of a good ol' southern boy though, it just sticks out a mile that Davis enjoys playing football more than the next guy.
The more I've thought about the Eagles, they're just the type of team that will always find a way to win these games, but their quicker pace means they give teams multiple 4th quarter possessions to work with. Couple that with Davis's moxy/X-factor/intangibles/miscellaneous qualities... I think the Rams are closer than a 6.5 point spread, I just can't trust them to win, even against a Philly team that struggled offensively against San Francisco.
@ 
Line: NYG -4 (open -1.5)
ATS Consensus: NYG 54%
Straight Up Consensus: NYG 78%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: ATL 2 units
Pickwatch Pick: ATL
Call this a gut feeling, but the Falcons are neither as bad or as good as you think they are. There's a reason they've risen and fallen more times than Antonio Cromartie's duds in power rankings over the last few weeks, and again, the reaction to a loss is to knock them perhaps harder than they deserve.
As for the Giants, this is not a team to trust. They played a bad Redskins team last week and made short work of them, but the Falcons have players that can match up well against an exploitable Giants D. Also, we really don't trust the Giants moving out on the spread. They're due a giant f**k up, basically.
@ 
Line: NO -10.5
ATS Consensus: TB 51%
Straight Up Consensus: NO 98%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: TB 1 unit
Pickwatch Pick: NO
DOUBLE DIGIT SPREAD ALERT: The Saints of old may have warranted this type of spread, and the Bucs of week 1-2 may also have justified it, but we've seen signs of life from Tampa, and this year's Saints are not your... slightly older brother's Saints. They'll score points, but they aren't record breakers.
Also, a double digit win wouldn't be out of the ordinary this season at all, but unless you're 100%, you take the dogs in this situation.
@ 
Line: DAL -6.5
ATS Consensus: DAL 62%
Straight Up Consensus: DAL 94%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: DAL 3 Units
Pickwatch Pick: DAL
One thing with this game is that given the relative strengths and weaknesses of these teams, this could turn into a blowout one way or the other. Imagine that Texans run game on form, versus the abysmal Cowboys interior run D, and then imagine if Tony Romo is throwing to get back into the game against the Texans defence? Well that could be disastrous.
The reason we're going with Dallas is that we think they have, for the first time in 5 years, genuine momentum in the face of little expectation. Romo is playing his best football in a while, his JaMarcus of a start to the season is a distant memory, and his O-line is quietly proving to be a strong point. That should be more than enough.
@ 
Line: IND -3.5
ATS Consensus: IND 62%
Straight Up Consensus: IND 72%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: IND 1 Unit
Pickwatch Pick: IND
We should play a drinking game for this matchup, because the commentary will be insufferable. have a drink any time the announcers mention:
Ray Rice
Jim Irsay
Jim Irsay in relation to Ray Rice
Trucks in the night
The Baltimore Colts
'Elite QB's'
Any record broken on Sunday that used to be held by an ex-Baltimore Colt
Just about the only things we can tolerate are mentions of Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne being great, and Chuck Pagano's cancer. Those are acceptable talking points. Oh, and the game. Y'know. Events on the field.
I think the Colts are a good team, and they seem to be overlooked because they lack a little bit of fight. There aren't any big personalities to love or hate, there's no defensive Bob Sanders or Dwight Freeney any more... I don't know why, but the media need those names to cling on to, even though that Colts D was widely awful for many years when they were part of it.
I think the Colts have one of those high-octane offences that is clicking on the back of a few easy games, and they'll come into this one basically after a few weeks of 'live reps'. The Ravens, meanwhile, were great last week against the Panthers, but they are a flaky team that often blows frustratingly hot and cold. Joe Flacco is due a complete balls up, basically.
@ 
Line: DET -6.5
ATS Consensus: DET 54%
Straight Up Consensus: DET 97%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: DET* 2 Units
Pickwatch Pick: DET*
Why is this spread coming in? Well, Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins said nice things about Kyle Orton. That's about it. Look, as a Bears fan. Orton is a bit of a cult hero to me, but neckbeard or not, the Lions will be too much for the Bills unless Calvin Johnson is genuinely injured and can't play on Sunday.
If that's the case, we'd maybe take the Bills to get within a TD. Maybe. There's a lot of questions we'd need the Bills to answer before we could bet against the Lions at home and against a team that just benched it's starting QB.
* if Megatron is out, avoid this game like the plague
@ 
Line: PIT -6.5
ATS Consensus: PIT 62%
Straight Up Consensus: PIT 91%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: PIT 3 Units
Pickwatch Pick: PIT
Ordinarily we'd suggest this one could be a potential upset, but the Jaguars defence are playing like they aren't even coached. It's mortifying to watch. Unless you're Antonio Brown...
@ 
Line: DEN -7.5
ATS Consensus: ARI 51%
Straight Up Consensus: DEN 94%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: ARI 1 Units
Pickwatch Pick: DEN
We can't bet against Peyton's Colts coming off a bye week, but the Cardinals win games without necessarily having any of the specific elements needed to do so. They have a good defence, but it's not a game changer, and their receivers are good, but we're not talking the Bears here... Drew Stanton is at the helm again, he's serviceable...
I mean what I'm getting at is that basically, this team wins games it possibly shouldn't. That worries me, because once or twice a year, Peyton comes out and has a complete and utter nightmare. He throws crazy ducks into triple coverage, he gets sacked a thousand times... maybe, just maybe... well I like the Cards to make a fight of this.
@ 
Line: SF -5.5
ATS Consensus: KC 75%
Straight Up Consensus: SF 87%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: KC 2 Units
Pickwatch Pick: KC
You see that game on Monday? When the Chiefs get hot, they can put up big points, and they're hot right now. The 49ers are not in good shape despite a gutsy win last week, and I have said fro day one that this season may be a disappointment for them. Certainly when you factor in Arizona's rise and Seattle's dominance, the 49ers may be the odd team out.
The spread on this game has come in from 7.5 to 5.5, which should tell you which side the big Vegas players are on. We're thinking not only a Chiefs cover, but an upset straight up, with the Chiefs perhaps overtaking the 49ers in next week's power rankings.
@ 
Line: SD -6.5
ATS Consensus: SD 61%
Straight Up Consensus: SD 96%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: SD 4 Units
Pickwatch Pick: SD
I think an improved and confident Chargers D makes a few big plays to end Geno Smith's season early. He's 2 interceptions away from the bench, and hasn't made enough plays to justify keeping Michael Vick on the bench at all. Rex Ryan must genuinely wonder what he has to do to lose this job. The guy has played Geno Smith solidly and been rewarded with exactly what you would expect from such a decision, yet somehow he has retained his job. Amazing.
You know who I love? Eddie Royal. The guy was money in Denver when they were a poor team, and he's hitting paydirt often for the Chargers. They use him on a bunch of pick/screen plays and he's quick enough to break big gains from them. He's been on my fantasy team for a few years now, and I think it's no surprise that when Royal scores, the Chargers generally are playing well. I hear a lot of criticism from fantasy owners who find him unreliable, but that's a whole other deal. Watch him on the field and you'd appreciate a truly underrated receiver who is even more important since the loss of Danny Woodhead.
@ 
Line: CIN -1
ATS Consensus: CIN 53%
Straight Up Consensus: CIN 74%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: CIN 1 Unit
Pickwatch Pick: CIN
Betting-wise, this is awful, but football-wise, what a fantastic SNF game. The Pats coming off an atrocious loss that has confirmed that their ineffective offence was not an early season blip, and the Cincinnati Bengals looking to retain their undefeated title onn the road in Foxboro. I am positively brimming with excitement here.
As spreads go, -1 is basically a pick 'em. I don't think the Pats have the offensive line to stop an underrated Bengals pass-rush, and I also think the Pats have basically struggled to manage their offensive weapons effectively since Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez left for pastures new/a lifetime in prison (delete as appropriate).
Essentially, the Patriots last great offence was built around the Gronkowski-Hernandez tandem. That was the key, and the idea was to use Hernandez as the main mismatch, lining him up as appropriate either on the LOS or in the slot. This allowed the Pats free reign to sell the run, pick on slot receivers with a speedy TE, and it also confused the hell out of defences unused to dealing with the unfamiliar personnel grouping.
What the Pats now have is effectively the same offence, but a far less versatile skill-set from their receivers. Edelman has replaced Welker, but Amendola - ostensibly the new Welker - is somehow still a constant feature of Josh McDaniels's offence despite bringing nothing to the party. They're basically playing with 2 slots (Edelman and Amendola), a possession TE who looks still pretty gimped (Gronk) and an outside guy in LaFell who has been consistently inconsistent for the last 5 years. You have to wonder how that is all supposed to fit together effectively, because even on paper it's a mess.
Meanwhile the Pats Porous run D against Gio Bernard? Ugh. If they couldn't handle Jamaal Charles, they'll hate his MkII version this week. The Pats can't score, they can't stop the run, and they aren't cut out to defend a guy like AJ Green. Hell, they were't even cut out to defend Dwayne Bowe...
@ 
Line: SEA -7
ATS Consensus: SEA 86%
Straight Up Consensus: SEA 99%
Pickwatch ATS Pick: SEA 2 Units
Pickwatch Pick: SEA
REDSKINS. You know why that's a big deal? Because Dan Snyder is an asshole, and when a guy is an asshole, even rational, moderate people turn into frothing maniacs about stuff they previously gave less than two sh*ts about. That's what has happened with the name issue, and that's what will keep on happening as long as Snyder's 15 year PR debacle continues.
On the field, lets not go nuts over Kirk Cousins's total Gabbert against the Giants. Much like the Falcons, Cousins is a victim of the 'OMG HOF' knee-jerk columns that writers churn out off the back of victories like the one he led in week 2 v Jackonville (mediocre) and his decent game against the Eagles in week 3. We read a bizarre column claiming Cousins is better than Foles off the back of that game... needless to say, it's horse manure.
Good or bad, Cousins can't be judged to be the next Sonny Jurgensen just yet, but neither should last week cause him to be another Patrick Ramsey in peoples' eyes. He's still finding his feet, dealing with Captain passive-aggressive RG3 waiting in the wings, and Cousins also has a pretty unfavorable schedule, facing the Eagles, Giants, Seahawks and Cards on the trot. If he comes out of that 1-3, that wouldn't be a disaster.
Unfortunately, nobody is betting against the best team in football right now. Forget the Chargers loss, this is going to be a long night for DC sports fans.
That's all for our weekly preview of this weekend's NFL slate. Be sure to check in on Sundays to get the final consensus (some experts pick late/change picks) and follow us on twitter and Facebook for more updates. You can also find our ATS database of experts below.
MIN
@
GB
CHI
@
CAR
CLE
@
TEN
STL
@
PHI
ATL
@
NYG
TB
@
NO
HOU
@
DAL
BUF
@
DET
BAL
@
IND
PIT
@
JAX
ARI
@
DEN
KC
@
SF
NYJ
@
SD
CIN
@
NE
SEA
@
WAS
WEEK
YEAR
Expert
Line>
MIN +9.5
CHI +3.5
CLE +1.5
STL +7.5
ATL +4.5
TB +10.5
HOU +5.5
BUF +7.5
BAL +3.5
JAX +4.5
ARI +7.5
KC
+6.5
NYJ +6.5
NE
+1.5
WAS +7.5
W
L
W
L
%
Tim Cowlishaw
DallasNews.com
-
CAR
TEN
PHI
ATL
NO
HOU
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
0
38
21
64%
Sam Farmer
LA Times
GB
CHI
CLE
PHI
ATL
TB
HOU
DET
BAL
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
39
23
63%
Numberfire
Numberfire
MIN
CAR
TEN
STL
ATL
NO
HOU
BUF
IND
JAX
ARI
KC
SD
NE
WAS
0
1
35
26
57%
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
MIN
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
HOU
BUF
IND
PIT
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
1
35
26
57%
Jamey Eisenberg
CBS
GB
CAR
CLE
STL
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
BAL
JAX
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
35
27
56%
Rainer Sabin
DallasNews.com
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
TB
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
0
33
26
56%
Chase Keefer
Las Vegas Sun
MIN
CAR
TEN
PHI
ATL
TB
HOU
BUF
BAL
JAX
DEN
KC
NYJ
NE
SEA
0
1
34
27
56%
Bill Barnwell**
Grantland
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
ATL
NO
HOU
DET
IND
PIT
DEN
SF
NYJ
NE
SEA
0
0
33
27
55%
Jason La Canfora
CBS
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
DAL
BUF
BAL
PIT
DEN
KC
NYJ
CIN
SEA
1
0
34
28
55%
Pete Prisco
CBS
GB
CAR
TEN
PHI
NYG
TB
DAL
DET
BAL
PIT
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
34
28
55%
Kevin Sherrington
DallasNews.com
-
CAR
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
SF
SD
CIN
SEA
0
0
31
28
53%
John Boell
Newsday
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
BUF
IND
PIT
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
0
31
28
53%
Kimberley A Martin
Newsday
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
HOU
DET
IND
PIT
DEN
SF
NYJ
NE
SEA
0
0
31
28
53%
Mario Mergola
XNSports/AOL
MIN
CAR
TEN
STL
ATL
TB
HOU
BUF
BAL
JAX
DEN
SF
NYJ
NE
WAS
0
1
31
29
52%
Dave Richard
CBS
GB
CAR
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
DAL
BUF
BAL
JAX
ARI
SF
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
32
30
52%
Dave Tuley*
ESPN
-
-
-
-
ATL
TB
HOU
BUF
BAL
JAX
ARI
-
-
-
-
0
0
13
13
50%
Vic Tafur
SFGate
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
HOU
BUF
IND
JAX
DEN
KC
NYJ
NE
SEA
1
0
31
31
50%
Ben Volin
Boston Globe
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
DAL
BUF
IND
JAX
ARI
KC
NYJ
NE
SEA
1
0
30
31
49%
Christopher Gasper
Boston Globe
GB
CHI
TEN
PHI
ATL
TB
DAL
DET
BAL
PIT
ARI
SF
NYJ
NE
SEA
1
0
30
31
49%
Rick Gosselin
DallasNews.com
-
CAR
CLE
STL
ATL
TB
DAL
BUF
BAL
PIT
ARI
KC
NYJ
CIN
WAS
0
0
29
30
49%
John Breech
CBS
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
30
32
48%
Ryan Wilson
CBS
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
DAL
BUF
IND
JAX
ARI
SF
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
30
32
48%
teamrankings
teamrankings
MIN
CHI
TEN
PHI
ATL
TB
DAL
BUF
BAL
JAX
ARI
KC
NYJ
NE
SEA
0
1
29
32
48%
Michael Whitmer
Boston Globe
GB
CHI
TEN
PHI
ATL
TB
DAL
BUF
BAL
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
WAS
1
0
29
32
48%
Craig Miller
DallasNews.com
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
ATL
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
NE
SEA
0
0
28
31
47%
David Moore
DallasNews.com
-
CAR
TEN
PHI
ATL
TB
DAL
DET
BAL
PIT
DEN
KC
SD
NE
SEA
0
0
28
31
47%
Brandon George
DallasNews.com
-
CAR
CLE
STL
ATL
TB
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
NE
SEA
0
0
27
32
46%
Tom Rock
Newsday
-
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
NO
DAL
BUF
IND
JAX
DEN
KC
NYJ
CIN
SEA
0
0
27
32
46%
Frank Schwab
Yahoo
GB
CAR
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
DAL
BUF
IND
PIT
DEN
KC
NYJ
NE
SEA
1
0
28
34
45%
Shalise Young
Boston Globe
GB
CAR
CLE
PHI
ATL
TB
HOU
DET
IND
JAX
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
-
1
0
27
34
44%
Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight
GB
CAR
TEN
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
DEN
SF
SD
NE
SEA
1
0
26
33
44%
Newy Scruggs
DallasNews.com
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
ATL
NO
DAL
DET
IND
JAX
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
0
26
33
44%
Bob Glauber
Newsday
-
CAR
TEN
PHI
NYG
NO
HOU
DET
IND
PIT
DEN
SF
NYJ
NE
SEA
0
0
26
33
44%
Walterfootball
Walterfootball
GB
CAR
CLE
STL
ATL
NO
HOU
BUF
IND
JAX
DEN
KC
SD
NE
SEA
1
0
27
35
44%
Sean Leahy
Boston Globe
MIN
CAR
CLE
PHI
ATL
NO
HOU
BUF
IND
JAX
DEN
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
0
1
26
34
43%
Dana Larson
DallasNews.com
-
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
NE
WAS
0
0
25
34
42%
Josh Katzowitz
CBS
GB
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
BAL
PIT
DEN
KC
NYJ
CIN
SEA
1
0
26
36
42%
Jim McBride
Boston Globe
GB
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
NO
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
DEN
SF
NYJ
NE
-
1
0
24
37
39%
Will Brinson
CBS
GB
CHI
CLE
STL
NYG
TB
HOU
DET
BAL
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
22
40
35%
Consensus Pick
GB
CHI
CLE
PHI
NYG
TB
DAL
DET
IND
PIT
ARI
KC
SD
CIN
SEA
1
0
27
35
44%
Consensus %
69%
55%
71%
61%
54%
51%
62%
54%
62%
62%
51%
74%
61%
53%
86%
