Hola chums, let's delve deeper into the matchups of the first week back and get a few more stats on the go shall we? This is week 1 of Pickwatch's weekly previews that will show you some comparative stats based on what the experts and the public are thinking regarding each week's games.

As the season progresses, we'll also be able to call on our more 'advanced' statistical analysis that shows which experts picked which teams better at home and on the road. We have further plans for this as the season progresses, but of course, we'll have to wait for data to 'build up' in order for it to be used in this way.

What's that? You want some preamble banter? Ok. We're glad football is back. The offseason is a terrible time. Here's some things we hate about it:

Mini-camp reports: Oh god NO. Training Camp is just about compelling enough to warrant reporting on, but rookie mini-camps and OTA's... just no. You know who I feel sorry for? The journalists who are forced to attend like... The Vikings mini-camp. I Imagine them slowly walking away from another pointless day in Minnesota and just feeling like they're wasting everyone's time. They are.

[caption id="attachment_1486" align="aligncenter" width="376"] "Yeah so from what we can see here Rich, there's some guys stretching... and again, today's top story one of the backup linemen was NOT happy with lunch arrangements, he called them quote 'disturbingly lacking in sauce' Rich. Ok back to you!"[/caption]

Top 100/32 Teams/Players/Quarterbacks: Hell NO. Top 100 players? A completely terrible idea, poorly implemented, explained and produced. I get the feeling the players themselves don't actually know if they're voting for people on the basis of 2013 alone, or how good the player is generally. Donovan McNabb was probably still 98th on that list last year even though he was retired. As for the other lists, well, I used to compile a QB list after the season and rank every QB - it was pointless, because the information is out of date before it's of any use to others. It's drivel and filler.

The Draft: Oh we all love the draft... except we don't really do we? It doesn't make THAT much difference to any team, and a change in coaching/front office (see Kelly, C. & Smith, L.)) is far more likely to instigate a turnaround than the addition of one player. The exception is at Quarterback, where a rookie 1st-2nd round player can legitimately effect your team's chances, so what we suggest is that they split the draft into 'QB's 'and 'non-QB's'. Have a QB draft on Thursday, and then just absolutely plough through rounds 1-7 of the rest on Friday. Balls to all of this 3 days. Imagine tuning in to the third day of the draft? That's the point where things have gone very wrong in life.

Draft Grades: We give the draft grades crew an F-. They're going to be horrendously, awfully wrong. Like _nowhere near. _True: One thing we're going to do for next year's annual Goodell hug-athon is a massive look back at historical draft grades and how things played out. We strongly suspect that there'll be a lot of bluster, BS and inaccuracy. Actually, now that I think about it, I actually can't wait for the draft now

Post-Draft Power Rankings: OH MY WORD NO PLEASE GET IT OFF. Some of the Power Rankings we compiled for our 'Power Ranking Averages' were done in MAY. What use are they? None. Why are they done? We don't know. We just. Don't. Know. Stop doing them.

Enough ranting - we love football and we like it REAL and MEANINGFUL. Which is convenient, because this week that's exactly what we'll get.

Thursday Night Football

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L](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)ine: SEA -5 (in from -5.5)

ATS: GB 71%

Experts: SEA 89%

Pickwatch Users: SEA 86%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: GB (24) SEA (1) - Ranked in order of ease of picking games.**

We hate the term 'statement game' this early in the season. In fact, we hate the term full stop, because in some way every game is a statement. When the Panthers beat the Patriots last year, it was considered a 'statement' on the part of the Panthers, who then promptly lost in their first playoff game.

Statements (as defined by the media) don't really exist in the NFL, so let's not read too much into the psychological value of these two NFC teams playing each other in week 1. Instead, we'll concentrate on the picking statistics.

An overwhelming majority favor the Seahawks. As defending champs it is absolutely no surprise to find that Seattle is a favorite not only or this game, but to retain their title. With everything 'as expected' on that front, let's concentrate on who picked the Packers. Our 2013 Packers stats show that Dan Hanzus was the best ranked of the experts picking the Packers, with an overall ranking of 64%that left him 19th overall. When we look at the names picking the Packers (say that slowly), we don't think there's any particular trend that suggests they have an inside track on them, therefore we're comfortable going with the majority on this one.

An interesting ATS point: The Packers are 71% favorites against the spread, which is affirmation of Aaron Rodgers's exalted status as a consensus MVP challenger this year. At -5 we'd tend to agree, but it's worth noting Seattle's healthy record ATS generally over the last few years (21-10). They also blasted the 49ers and Saints at home last year, both of whom have high powered offences. We expect the crowd noise to be a big factor in the team's first game as defending champions, and for the Seahawks to respond in kind.

Sunday

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** NO -3

ATS: NO 79%

Experts: NO 87%

Pickwatch Users: NO 87%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: NO (6) @ ATL (15) - Ranked in order of ease of picking games.**

The Saints are one of the top 5 teams predicted to win the Super Bowl this year, therefore it's little surprise to find them comfortably favored over the Falcons. We think the Falcons are getting a raw deal here based on last season's high expectations that evaporated almost immediately upon Julio Jones going down with injury, but it is hard to argue that the Saints aren't a stronger team generally.

First, of those experts who picked the Falcons, the most compelling is 2013 overall champion John Halpin of FOX, however we must emphasise that John's record picking the Falcons was 77th (of 93) experts last year. That's possibly unfair, as he managed a healthy 71% picking the Falcons at home. There's also a case that Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report - although sometimes a bit of a contrarian - had an 86% record picking the Falcons at home last year. It's food for thought, but we feel that as our top experts have sided with New Orleans, they're a solid play.

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**Line: STL -4 (in from -6.5)

ATS: MIN 71%

Experts: MIN 52%

Pickwatch Users: MIN 50.5%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: MIN (19) STL (20) - Ranked in order of ease of picking games.**

There are 3 games this week that fall into the 'less than 50% consensus' bracket with experts, and this is most definitely one of them. It has been pretty interesting to watch the betting and fan consensus move away from the Rams in a gradual way over the course of the week, with the Rams at one point 63% favored by analysts.

This one calls for better analysis. Who exactly is picking who? One thing we can learn from last season was that the Vikes were extremely easy to predict on the road last year and the Rams were predictable at home. That means it is difficult to find a group of experts that stand head and shoulders above others. The closest we have is Rich Eisen, who impressively picked every Rams home game and 71% of Vikings road games - he's taking the Rams, for what it's worth.

Our top 5 from last year were John Halpin, Prediction machine, Accuscore, Ron Jaworski and Gregg Rosenthal. Let's check their picks:

EXPERT

MIN @ STL

John Halpin

Prediction machine

Accuscore

Ron Jaworski

Gregg Rosenthal

It's hardly conclusive, but the consensus does favor the Vikes, and given their sneakily positive vibes after training camp, plus that guy who keeps being the best RB in the league... yeah, we're taking the Vikes too.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** PIT -6.5

ATS: PIT 79%

Experts: PIT 97%

Pickwatch Users: PIT 92%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: CLE(21) PIT(31) - Ranked in order of ease of picking games.**

An open and shut (we mis-typed 'shut' with another vowel and were tempted to leave it, it was so appropriate) case of Cleveland-itis. It's hard to argue that the Browns are a worse team than the one that started last year, which makes it strange that people are writing them off so soon. On the other hand, the Steelers have genuinely upgraded some of their weaker positions - particularly on defence - and the high consensus reflects the Steelers' progression as much as Cleveland's inability to realize their own potentially great defence.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** PHI -10.5

ATS: PHI 64%

Experts: PHI 97%

Pickwatch Users: PHI 97%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: JAX(8) PHI (27) - Ranked in order of ease of picking games.**

With the news that Cecil Shorts will miss Sunday's game, the Jags are in serious offensive trouble. You get the feeling that they'd actually enjoy getting destroyed, if only to give Blake Bortles absolutely zero expectations coming in to replace Chad Henne in week 2. We like the Jags to get better this season in a hurry under Bortles's QB play, and the fact that any analysts at all have given them a shot speaks well of the team that Gus has built.

Meanwhile, like most people, we like the Eagles this year. They rank highly in our list of cross-network preseason predictions and in what has become a weak division, they just have to avoid implosion.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** NYJ -5.5

ATS: NYJ 79%

Experts: NYJ 91%

Pickwatch Users: NYJ 80%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: OAK (14) NYJ (28)**

This is one we would stay away from if we were gambling. The Raiders are good value, but they're the Raiders. Literally anything could happen when they take the field, but invariably, they are crap. Meanwhile, the Jets are down to about 3 DB's, which could cause them problems when Derek Carr throws the ball to... (checks depth chart)... Rod Streater. Really? Yeah, ok. Really? Rod Streater is still starting in Oakland? Haven't they drafted anyone... oh they haven't... right. Glad we cleared that up.

We'd still pick the Raiders usually, if only because it's incredible the faith that people have in the Jets. On the other hand, the problem we have is that Sterling Sharpe has picked them, and as we all know, Sterling is incredibly poor at this. Also picking the Raiders is Chris Hansen of B/R, who, while we consider him a good writer, struggles to pick Oakland accurately.

We'll take the Jets.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine: BAL -1.5****

ATS: BAL 64%

Experts: CIN 52%

Pickwatch Users: CIN 56%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: CIN (4) BAL(26)**

Another game that splits those we rely on most for expertise is the Bengals' visit to Baltimore. Let's start with the basics: John Harbaugh is a great coach - arguably better than his brother - and he inspires confidence amongst observers that he can reverse last year's mediocre performance.

Of the experts with the best records picking these teams last year, 7 experts picked the Bengals 100% on the road, while FOX Sport's Joel Beall picked the Ravens 100%.

Expert

Network

Bengals Road

Ravens Home

Pick

John Halpin

FOX

100%

75%

Frank Schwab

YAHOO

100%

63%

Ron Jaworski

ESPN

100%

88%

Mike Silver

NFL Network

100%

63%

-

Nathan Jahnke

ProFootballFocus

100%

63%

John Breech

CBS

100%

63%

Pete Prisco

CBS

100%

75%

Joel Beall

FOX

57%

100%

Wow. We don't always like to assume anything abse don these stats, but when you have a (roughly) 50/50 split between experts, and those with the best records (many of whom had excellent overall records last year) are unanimous in picking one team? That's a pretty telling statistic. Bengals for us too, then.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)** L**ine:**** CHI -6.5

ATS: CHI 79%

Experts: CHI 100%

Pickwatch Users: CHI 95%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: BUF (30) CHI (22)**

What can we say? With Jason La Canfora and Lorenzo Reyes changing their picks, our only unanimous consensus pick of the week is Chicago. The Bills are a shambles. We don't need any more advanced stats to tell you Chicago should win this one.

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L**ine:**** HOU -2.5

ATS: HOU 64%

Experts: HOU 55%

Pickwatch Users: HOU 52%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: WAS (16) HOU (12)**

Here we go, another close one. Let's get those advanced stats out. For the record, we feel like the Skins are getting no love for ulterior reasoning than just their poor offseason play. The same case could easily be made for the Texans, but all of the fuss is concentrated on Robert Griffin III and a team whose name half of the media won't speak aloud.

There were 6 experts with a best score of 75% when picking the Texans at home, while 4 analysts picked the Redskins right 86% of the time on the road in 2013. Of those, Melissa Stark of NFL Network, Mike Ditka of ESPN and our dearly departed Mike Silver of NFL Network achieved both scores. Unfortunately, with Silver's retirement, that leaves us with a deadlock. Even more unfortunately, we're unable to break that deadlock by expanding the pool to include no-marks such as ourselves.

Overall 2013

Expert

Network

Redskins Road

Texans Home

Pick

71

Ryan Fowler

FOX

86%

57%

91

Melissa Stark

NFL

86%

75%

55

Mike Ditka

ESPN

86%

75%

45

Mike Silver

NFL

86%

75%

-

64

Pickwatch

Pickwatch

71%

75%

20

Ryan Wilson

CBS

71%

75%

27

Tom Jackson

ESPN

57%

75%

Discounting our own opinion, the Texans are favorites, which is difficult for us and creates some kind of picking vortex, as this year we've vowed to make our picks based on these stats. I've included our gut pick for the game, but should you wish to disregard it, we wouldn't blame you. All we're saying is that the Redskins are better than they've shown so far, and the Texans, despite J.J. Watt and Jadaveon Clowney on defence, are going to need a great game on offence to beat Washington.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** KC -3.5

ATS: TEN 64%

Experts: KC 75%

Pickwatch Users: KC 88%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: TEN (17) KC (2)**

This one is closer with the experts than the public, and we think the mistrust of Alex Smith has a lot to do with this. Don't read too much into the preseason either, because it is hardly a fair gauge of a team's progression.

Meanwhile, the Titans have Jake locker back, but no Chris Johnson. The latter is addition by subtraction, given his general attitude to the offence and his inability to see past his own stats. Sure he was talented, but Johnson is a guy who has bought into his own hype and has a tendency to assume problems are not his fault. He's going to love the Jets...

Here's a breakdown of the 'best' experts from last year and how they're picking in this game. We feel this one is tighter than it seems on paper, so we thought we'd see if there was any representation of that in the stats:

Overall 2013

Expert

Network

Titans Road

Chiefs Home

Pick

3

Accuscore

Accuscore

88%

75%

9

Pete O'Brien

USA Today

88%

88%

-

13

Michael David Smith

PFT

88%

88%

14

Nate Davis

USA Today

88%

88%

21

Michael Fabiano

NFL Network

88%

88%

28

Joel Beall

FOX

88%

75%

29

John Breech

CBS

88%

75%

30

Kevin Patra

NFL.com

88%

88%

31

Adam Meyer

FOX

63%

100%

36

Dave Damashek

NFL Network

88%

88%

43

Matt Bowen

B/R

88%

75%

57

Steve Wyche

NFL Network

88%

88%

-

63

Will Brinson

CBS

38%

100%

73

Merill Hoge

ESPN

88%

88%

74

Warren Sapp

NFL Network

88%

88%

90

Mike Freeman

B/R

88%

75%

In this case, our stats tend to bear out that the best experts have gone straight down the line with KC. That's a 78% consensus of the top 16 guys, and can't be ignored.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** NE -5.5

ATS: NE 71%

Experts: NE 95%

Pickwatch Users: NE 91%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: NE(18) MIA(32)**

No point in any major analysis here. We like the Dolphins this year. Almost all of those who've picked the Dolphins have reasons for doing so beyond their expertise, with most being pro-Dolphins/anti-Patriots guys. This year is a massive one for the patriots, but from the reports out of training camp (ok... not the greatest sources) the pats are ready to step up this year.

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L**ine:**** TB -1.0

ATS: TB 86%

Experts: TB 69%

Pickwatch Users: TB 50%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: CAR(13) TB (7)**

It's only right to point out that the Panthers may well be without Cam Newton according to some sources, therefore the Bucs are the 'safe' pick. To be frank, even the better experts from 2013's stats have gone towards the Bucs, so it's worth selecting the Bucs now, and making a last minute call based on Cam newton's availability...

Expert

Network

Panthers Road

Bucs Home

Pick

Rick Drummond

ProFootballFocus

86%

88%

Mike Silver

NFL Network

86%

75%

-

Seth Wickersham

ESPN

86%

75%

TD Daniel

NFL Network

43%

100%

Andrea Hangst

B/R

71%

100%

Chris Brockman

NFL Network

57%

100%

Nate Davis

USA Today

57%

100%

Ryan Wilson

CBS

57%

100%

Dave Dameshek

NFL Network

43%

100%

Keyshawn Johnson

ESPN

43%

100%

Marshall Faulk

NFL Network

33%

100%

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** SF -4.5

ATS: DAL 57%

Experts: SF 80%

Pickwatch Users: SF 85%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: SF(5) DAL(10)**

We think this is the year the 49ers run out of steam, but according to those who picked the 49ers best on the road, and the Cowboys best at home in 2013, it is not this day.

Expert

Network

49ers Road

Cowboys Home

Pick

Rick Drummond

ProFootballFocus

86%

100%

Nathan Jahnke

ProFootballFocus

86%

100%

Ron Jaworski

ESPN

86%

100%

Dave Richard

CBS

86%

100%

Cris Carter

ESPN

100%

100%

Brad Gagnon

B/R

86%

100%

Kurt Warner

NFL Network

100%

100%

That's pretty conclusive.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** DEN -7.5

ATS: DEN 71%

Experts: DEN 95%

Pickwatch Users: DEN 93%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: IND(23) DEN(3)**

Great game, regardless of result. That's our prediction. Everyone's a winner.

And the Broncos. We're wary though, based on one thing only - Last year the Colts headed to San Francisco and upset the 49ers in Week 3. We think people tend to assume the Colts under Luck are perhaps less of a proposition than they actually are. In this case, we still go with the Broncos, but we're very interested to see the Colts this year, because we think they're nailed on for the Playoffs, which makes them a viable Super Bowl contender.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** DET -5.5

ATS: DET 79%

Experts: DET 95%

Pickwatch Users: DET 85%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: NYG(9) DET(25)**

Right, this is why you shouldn't trust experts implicitly based on their overall scores: Marshall Faulk is one of a very small bunch who believe in the Giants in Detroit, but let's check his scores from last year: 57% picking the Giants on the road, and 25% picking the Lions at home...

The Giants are one of those teams that are so unpredictable, it's often best to wait for them to show form, but in this case, against that D line? We don't like Eli in this kind of circumstance, so we're sticking with the Lions, who are sneakily developing one of the best all-round rosters in the league. Top quality at WR, RB, QB, TE, DL, OL... if they can get semi-decent secondary play this year, they may just surprise people.

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](http://old.nflpickwatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/SEA.png)****L****ine:**** ARI -3.5

ATS: SD 57%

Experts: ARI 57%

Pickwatch Users: ARI 70%

2013 Team Difficulty Ranking: SD(29) ARI(11)**

The final game of the week is another interesting one: Note that Antonio Gates is an injury doubt for the Chargers, while RB Andre Ellington is a vital scrub for the Cardinals. RB has become a bit of a fungible position, but we could well be looking at a Jonathan Dwyer start here folks...

Definitely worth checking the home and road records for experts picking these teams.

Expert

Network

Chargers Road

Cardinals Home

Pick

KC Joyner

ESPN

38%

100%

Rich Eisen

NFL Network

25%

100%

Ron Jaworski

ESPN

25%

100%

Don Banks

CBS

25%

100%

Kevin Patra

NFL.com

13%

100%

Joel Beall

FOX

50%

75%

TD Daniel

NFL Network

50%

63%

Prediction Machine

Prediction Machine

50%

86%

Tom Pelissero

USA Today

50%

43%

Nathan Jahnke

ProFootballFocus

50%

43%

Khaled Elsayed

ProFootballFocus

50%

57%

John Halpin

FOX

50%

86%

Chris Wesseling

NFL.com

50%

57%

In our view, the more important stat is picking the Cards at home. The Chargers could come out and blow, but we know they'll be a different team from last year, so there's no point in using analysis of 2013. On the other hand, we think the Cards are actually pretty similar to last season, so it's worth factoring in the views of those who picked them 100% at home last year. That gives us a 60% swing to the Chargers and a 53% swing towards them with all the experts named above.

That's all for Pickwatch's week 1 preview. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook for updates throughout the day, and we'll also be featuring some reader questions later today about the site's progression and new features. We know you all have plenty to say, so why not head over to the forum too, where we plan to address more questions from our readers.