Welcome to the Upset Watch Monday Morning Roundup
Every week on Monday I'll be looking back over the winners and losers of the weekend, as well as looking ahead to the final game of the week on Monday Night Football. This week, we aced it, nailing 5 of our 6 underdog winners, so let's get started!
Upset Watch Picks
Bingo. Last week hadn't gone the way we wanted from a winners perspective, but we rebounded in style this weekend to go 5 of 6 picks, and only missing out on the Lions by the narrowest of margins.
In order, we hit on the Titans, Jaguars, Packers, Falcons and Broncos, with 4 of those in a parlay (The Packers pick unfortunately was guided by late injury news and wasn't included). Of course, I mainly count single game parlay profit for ease of use, but for illustration, if you staked $100 on each of those picks, you'd be up +$585 this week. I was also glad that my Titans pick was locked in, as that was solid reasoning, but I may have thought twice had I needed to make that call on Sunday.
At the end of this article I've included tonight's pick for Monday Night Football. Could there be another upset to add to the list? If you're a Pro subscriber, then read on to find out. If not, try the code WEEK3 to get access with 20% off.
Expert and user roundup
Fan Contest
Our fan contest really stepped into overdrive in the moneyline contest, with bobbyandvandi on pace, should they win their last pick, for the first +$1,000 week of the seasion so far. If they lose, and Deltaforce956 wins his pick, he'd take the win.
In the season long contest, Vegaslock continues to make more money with less wins. He has a lead of +$510 in the moneyline season long contest on $1,572, with his nearest challenger themanpicks699 on +$1,060.03. A rough week saw nobody else so far make the leap into the thousands of profit, emphasizing that this contest is going to be fun to play all season long, and nobody is likely to extend a huge lead unless they're very very good at this.
In ATS, bobbyandvandi also nailed their ats picks to hold a much narrower lead over oregonduck62, on $+704 and +$700 respectively. MGNETWINNER is also in strong contention, and flash77 could also still win. It's no coincidence that as the season wears on, 5 of the top 7 pickers are also Pro members...
In the season contest, beyondanonda holds the lead on +$915 over winlosesum1009 on +$822. As we could expect, that race will be a lot closer all season long due to the nature of ATS picks.
Finally, our over/under points total contest is getting a lot more attention, and strilpatch is almost certainly going to win this week as he's on +787 vs second place pwuser10 on +587.
In the season long version, pwuser10 who won the week 1 contest is now in pole position as the only player to break the +$1k mark.
Remember, it's super easy to enter and win prizes. All you have to do is make your picks via the panel to the right of the table. Those picks will all count towards this leaderboard.
Leaderboards and Ranking
We're working through a few tickets this week that are relevant to the contest:
- The p/l column (profit/loss) will become simply 'Profit' and be labelled as such everywhere, as p/l is not commonly understood.
- We're changing the number of decimal places on the main table so that +$1k will become +$1.57k, which should set everyone apart. You'll also be able to mouse-over for the value to the nearest cent.
- We're adding your season profit to the app pick form, so you can keep track there. Last week, we added the ability to sort by season and weekly profit to the app too.
- Finally, we'll be sorting the leaderboard by profit/loss by default, as that's the main contest criteria. You can of course change that sorting as you see fit, but it'll start on the one that matters to us!
Week 3 Winners and Losers
Winners
Jalen Hurts
Hurts has now firmly established himself as the unquestioned leader of the Eagles, who are one of three remaining unbeaten teams.
Heading into this season, there were still question-marks about Hurts's long-term prospects, but that talk is now long-gone, and there seems to be almost no way that the former Alabama QB can lose his gig, barring a long term injury - and even so, he'd immediately be likely to reclaim the starting job in Philly or elsewhere on his return.
It's also worth noting that this is doubly significant for Hurts, who will be eligible to negotiate a new contract in the offseason for the first time. He has already earned a considerable raise, and depending on the way other cookies crumble, he may even justify a top-5 QB contract, at least in the current cycle.
Defenses
You know what helps win championships still? Yeah, it's defenses. I know people think that the days of defense making a difference are over, but look at this week and it's pretty clear that this is not the case. Seven teams won holding opponents to 14 or fewer points, and 5 won scoring 21 or less points themselves.
Ultimately, in the biggest games of the week, the defense made the difference, as the Colts hung on for the entire second half without giving away a big lead, the Dolphins held firm against the Bills having 90+ offensive plays, and the Broncos stuttered to a SNF win against the Niners in an offensive stalemate. That's before we even mention the two old guys down in Tampa. Those defenses may not have won a championship this season yet, but when your offense is not firing on all cylinders, a strong defense is a hell of a weapon.
Lamar Jackson
When Lamar bet on himself before this season, and turned down a monster contract, many people - myself included - thought it was crazy. Just take the money, right? I would probably have made the case that the Ravens have built an entire scheme around his skills, and that anywhere else he goes will be a huge risk.
But Jackson is proving me and everyone else wrong. Not only is he winning games, but he's doing it through the air and on the ground, and is the clubhouse leader for MVP after 3 weeks. His 4 passing TD's and 1 rushing TD single-handedly defeated the Patriots and a strong offense that had threatened to hold the Ravens in check for much of the game. What is impressive is that Jackson has evolved from being entirely run-first, to being a great passing QB, and a legitimate dual threat.
When he comes to negotiate that contract, he may be doing so as a 2-time MVP, with no need for a team to build their offense any differently for him, and that will considerably improve his market value.
Losers
The NFC South
New Orleans sits at 1-2 and seem in little danger of improving on that win ratio in 2022. So far this season, we've learned that Dennis Allen isn't going to continue growing sunflowers out of weeds, and that Jameis Winston is simply not a reliable starting QB.
Meanwhile, the Panthers sit at 1-2 and seem in little danger of improving on that win ratio in 2022. So far this season, we've learned that Baker Mayfield is simply not a reliable starting QB. You see what I did there? But it's true, both of these no.1 overall selections are at a stage where the problem is not everyone else, they have to be evaluated on the production (or lack) they bring.
The Falcons are the boom or bust team of the division, ranking top 10 in points scored, but bottom 10 in points allowed. Like the Saints, they could have won all of their games, but guess what they've learned about Marcus Mariota? Yeah... that he's not the long term answer for them.
And that brings us to Tampa Bay, a team who at 2-1 should thank their lucky stars that they're in the weakest division in football. Tom Brady is playing on fumes, and even with the solid excuse that his best players are injured, hasn't looked good even with a healthy team around him.
Even were he not headed towards retirement, the Bucs should be thinking twice about whether it'd be in their best interests to keep him around next season, because being on the wrong side of his salary:performance drop-off won't help the huge rebuilding task they face once Brady departs. Tampa has mortgaged the house on Brady, but right now, it seems they'll be lucky to get a wild card win.
The NFC South has put up NFC championship contenders in 5 of the last 10 years, but while one of them has to make the postseason, none of them should feel confident about their chances of replicating that feat.
Justin Fields
This is the second time in three weeks that Fields finds himself in this column, and it's indicative of a player who is just not the answer.
The Bears have simply made a mistake in drafting him, and the longer they persist trying to ignore the obvious, the harder it will be for everyone. Fields cannot throw the ball accurately enough for the NFL, he cannot work in a traditional offense, and his improvisation skills, while impressive, are not as effective offensively as say, Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson, who have impressive arms to match their legs.
Fields always felt like a pick out of necessity for the Bears, but he's going to be a cautionary tale in future about thinking that any first round QB is better than none. Certainly given the precarious nature of Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace when he was drafted, it seems insane to have let them draft a QB with so much risk attached. It seems inconceivable that Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles won't be headed back to the draft for a QB in May of 2023.
Davante Adams and Derek Carr
After another loss to the Titans leaves the Raiders winless, maybe the money and the fact he's playing with his buddy Derek Carr will soothe Davante Adams's pain. Maybe he'll look at the 2-1 Packers and think he's not that much worse off, but I doubt either of those things are true. Adams has joined a team with a gaping hole on the offensive line, and in Carr, a player who may have hit his ceiling, with or without Adams.
Only Davis Mills has as many poor passes as Carr this season, and while Mills has had 6 drops, Carr's receivers have been percect, all of which explains Carr's 61.8% completion rate, his lowest since his second season in the league, 2015.
The problem for Carr is that not only has he got a new WR whose under-performance rests on his shoulders, but a new Head Coach in Josh McDaniels will also be looking to find someone to blame if the 0-3 Raiders continue to lose. Their schedule isn't easy this season, and in a tough division full of star QB's, Carr may find himself very much the odd one out.
Monday Night Pick
The Giants take on the Cowboys tonight in an NFC East matchup with a tight spread. The Giants are favored by -1, but can the Cowboys pull off an upset, and does Upset Watch have another winner to go 6 of 7, or is this one to avoid?
