The MLB season has started very well for us, as we continue to crush bets with all of our BetSmart tools. Our basic prop finder has had an excellent hit rate, and middle bets continue to be a great low-risk, high reward betting strategy.

But the real star of the show has been our Positive EV bets.

Yesterday's Results

We hit a season best 15-0 on positive EV MLB bets with a star rating greater than 4 yesterday. Forgive me for posting our results from a data dump in Excel for now.

Note: We're literally about to start work on this data being publicly available, which I'm sure you can understand will be a huge asset to every bettor. For now, you can get a quick idea of what won on 4/20:

Look, I'm not going to tell you it'll be perfect every day, but bets are hitting at a great rate, and we've been happy that the strong data work we put in last year to refine our algorithms has started to yield consistent rewards. Since the start of the 2026 season, Positive EV bets in MLB that we rate at over 4 stars win at a 70% rate - a similar level to our Prop finder, which is also outperforming the sportsbooks, albeit it doesn't distinguish between 'good' and 'bad' odds!

As ever, Positive EV betting is only one tool in your armory to beat the books, but thus far in the MLB, it's been one of the most lucrative. If you want to learn more, head over to our Discord, or read how to get started Positive EV betting.

What exactly is Positive EV betting?

If you're new to this, positive EV is short for 'positive expected value'. This essentially means that you're getting better odds from a sportsbook than the 'fair' odds of something occurring.

By way of example, here's our Betsmart layout for Positive EV opportunities:

It may look complex at first, but it's really very simple. The +ev% column tells you what the edge is that you have based on the 'fair' odds. In this case, the probability of 69.7 means fair odds of -230, so getting that bet for -190 means you're effectively beating the sportsbook.

The logic of Positive EV betting is that by consistently 'beating' books at their own game, you're highly likely to win in the long run. But here at Pickwatch, we go one step further.

How BetSmart supercharges Positive EV betting

Of course, beating the books is good, but if you get odds of +1500 rather than +1200, there's still a good chance your pick will be losing, regardless of your moral victory!

That's why Betsmart has a pick rating system that finds bets that are in the sweet spot of hit rate, player performance, odds, and probability. Rather than guessing that all of those things align, we do all of the hard work, and as you can see above, we filter thousands of bets down to only the ones with the very best signals in your favor.

And boy does it work...

Check out today's Positive EV bets in Baseball.

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