Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/12/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Miami Marlins hit the road to face the Cleveland Guardians.

Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Cleveland Guardians -130 (BetMGM) / Miami Marlins +116 (Fanduel)
Best Spread Odds: Cleveland Guardians -1.0 (+107 on DraftKings) / Miami Marlins +1.5 (-184 on Fanduel)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-124 on Fanduel) / Under 9.0 (-115 on BetRivers)

Game Info

Date: Tuesday, August 12th 2025
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: Progressive Field
TV: -

Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Miami Marlins (48-49) are set to face the Cleveland Guardians (61-56) at Progressive Field in what is shaping up to be a compelling pitching matchup. The Guardians are in impressive form, having won 8 of their last 10 games, and boast a commendable season record with more wins than losses. Offensively, Cleveland has been consistent, averaging around 4.7 runs per game in recent outings, while their defense has been stout, limiting opponents to just 3.2 runs per game. However, their vulnerability against strong opposing pitchers and the inconsistency of some of their relief pitchers are points to consider.

The Marlins, on the other hand, are navigating a challenging stretch, securing just four wins in their last ten outings. Despite this, their offense remains fairly aggressive, consistently surpassing the four-run mark per game, with an average slightly below that at 3.9. However, their road performances often fall short of expectations, as a high number of runs conceded highlights issues with both their starting pitchers and bullpen rotation.

The pitching matchup features Janson Junk (6-2, 3.97 ERA) for the Marlins and Logan Allen (7-9, 3.96 ERA) for the Guardians. While their ERAs are nearly identical, Junk's superior control and consistency give him a slight edge, especially considering Allen's higher WHIP and walk rate. Progressive Field is known to be a pitcher-friendly venue, with a run factor of 0.972 and a home run factor of 0.924, which should benefit both starting pitchers. With both teams ranking in the bottom third of MLB in home runs per game, expect a contest where manufacturing runs will be at a premium rather than relying on the long ball.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins have a balanced head-to-head history. In their previous encounters, both teams have secured 5 wins each. The Guardians have won 2 of their home games against the Marlins, while the Marlins have notched up 3 victories on the road against Cleveland. Their last head-to-head clash took place on June 9 last year, with the Marlins securing a 6-3 victory. Historically, the Guardians have averaged 4.2 runs per game against the Marlins, while the Marlins have averaged 3.2 runs per game against the Guardians.

Pick: Under 9.0 Total Runs

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Considering the pitching matchup and park factors, the Under 9.0 total runs looks like a strong play. Both Janson Junk and Logan Allen come into this game with sub-4.00 ERAs. Junk's control and Allen's improved performance at home, combined with Progressive Field's pitcher-friendly environment, suggest that runs will be at a premium. Furthermore, both offenses rank in the bottom third of MLB in runs scored, and the Guardians' bullpen, anchored by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, has been a consistent strength with a collective 3.61 ERA, ranking 7th in MLB. This provides additional late-game security for the under.

Top Player Prop Picks

Janson Junk Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

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While Janson Junk isn't typically a high-strikeout pitcher with a 6.4 K/9 rate, he faces a Cleveland lineup that strikes out at an above-average rate, ranking 10th in MLB with 8.18 strikeouts per game. The Guardians' aggressive approach at the plate plays directly into Junk's strength of throwing strikes. He is expected to pitch at least 5-6 innings against this modest offense, providing him with ample opportunity to surpass the 4.5 strikeout line.

Logan Allen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

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This pick is based on the favorable odds provided for Logan Allen to stay under 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup.

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

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This pick is based on the favorable odds provided for Jose Ramirez to achieve over 1.5 total bases in this game.

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