Here are my Week 9 fantasy football notes.
Houston at New York Jets
C.J. Stroud has posted only three impact-caliber games this season. That isn’t likely to change on Thursday night versus a stout Jets secondary, and that goes double with Stefon Diggs out for the year. It’s a solid idea to get Tank Dell in lineups due to his target volume, but otherwise this is a game to avoid many Texans fantasy prospects.
Dallas at Atlanta
Don’t get overconfident in the Falcons passing game, as most of the upside from last week occurred due to playing the abysmal Buccaneers secondary. Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are still must start candidates, but have muted expectations for Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney.
Denver at Baltimore
Bo Nix is the real deal. He’s scored 20+ points in three out of the past four games and 19+ points in four of the past six games. He rushes the ball quite well and Sean Payton is finding all manner of favorable pass situations for him. Merge that with the Ravens having awful pass coverage metrics this year and it results in strong QB1 status for Nix. He’s available in just under 50 percent of ESPN leagues, so put a waiver/free agent claim in for him if Nix is available in your league.
Miami at Buffalo
Raheem Mostert may not have starter-caliber value this week, but he is still receiving a platoon level of work in the Miami backfield. That has plenty of rest of season value, so if he is available for a trade low offer, make that offer, as it could provide plenty of ROI down the season stretch.
The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 9 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New Orleans at Carolina
Fantasy managers in deep leagues may want to consider rostering Adam Thielen. He’s not likely to put up big numbers, but with the Panthers having to throw a ton due to their lousy defense, Thielen has upside target potential. He could also see scoring improvement if/when Andy Dalton returns to the lineup.
Las Vegas at Cincinnati
Joe Burrow has struggled the past two weeks and if you take the long TD run against the Giants a few weeks ago (an anomaly for Burrow), it’s three weeks straight. The Raiders have posted very good coverage metrics of late, so this is a week to consider Burrow a bench candidate outside of 2QB or superflex leagues.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland
Take caution in overestimating the Browns wide receivers. Baltimore’s pass defense has been suspect this season and that accounts for part of last week’s strong fantasy numbers by Cleveland’s passing game. The Chargers pass defense has posted some of the best coverage metrics over the past month, and thus presents a tough road challenge. Consider Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman flex candidates. Do start David Njoku, as he is still a top five TE despite the matchup.
Washington at New York Giants
Bill Belichick said on ManningCast that Darius Slayton can be just as dangerous for defenses as Malik Nabers. The Commanders secondary has been playing quite well of late, so Slayton’s not a great start candidate this week, but he is worthy of rest of season consideration given his big play ability.
New England at Tennessee
Tony Pollard is not built to be a bell cow back. His RB coach said this a couple of years ago and Pollard echoed that sentiment. It didn’t stop Dallas from overusing him last year and hasn’t stopped Tennessee from doing so this year. It may be why Pollard is now dealing with a foot issue. In any event, he’s not going to hold up to a bell cow workload the rest of the year, so roster Tyjae Spears for if/when Pollard misses time.
Chicago at Arizona
Chicago’s pass game struggled last week against Washington, but that said more about the Commanders improving defense than it did about the Bears aerial struggles. Having said that, the Chicago passing offense hasn’t been hitting on all cylinders. It might be a good idea to downgrade Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze this week, although DJ Moore has done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt after two subpar weeks.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
The Eagles secondary is playing exceptionally well of late. That makes this a bad road matchup for a banged-up Jaguars aerial attack. It makes Trevor Lawrence a sit candidate in most leagues, caps the upside potential of either Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby and will make Brian Thomas Jr. a low upside start if he plays. The exception here is Evan Engram, who has low-end TE1 status due to likely being the centerpiece of the Jaguars passing attack.
Detroit at Green Bay
Don’t hesitate to start the Lions D/ST. Detroit has scored nine or more fantasy points in four of its last six games. The Lions also generate plenty of takeaways and Jordan Love has thrown at least one pick in every game he’s played in this year. There are better D/STs on the board, but Detroit is starter-caliber.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
The Rams D/ST has scored 34 points over the past three games. A matchup at Seattle might seem daunting, but the Seahawks grade out poorly in pass blocking and Geno Smith has a penchant for throwing interceptions. Add the splash play opportunities that could occur in a high scoring game and the Rams have start potential.
Indianapolis at Minnesota
Joe Flacco’s return to the starting lineup is a big boon for Josh Downs’ fantasy managers. It’s enough to get him back to the WR2/WR3/flex border. It helps Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy start status as well, but Pittman’s struggles this year keep him at the WR3 level even with Flacco’s return.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
The Buccaneers defense is by far the worst in the league in pass coverage. This is a factor that could end Patrick Mahomes’ career long streak of scoring fewer than 20 points in a game. It’s also a reason to strongly consider starting Xavier Worthy in all leagues and DeAndre Hopkins in deep leagues.