Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 6. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers. 


The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 167-65-2 since 2020 (including 8-4 over the past two weeks), will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.


New Orleans at Arizona


The Saints offense has adjusted quite well to the crippling injuries that hit its receiving corps of late, as New Orleans has rushed for 228+ yards in each of the past two games. That ground success also led to the Saints first game without a giveaway last week and has resulted in New Orleans scoring 25+ points in three straight contests. It will come in handy in this matchup since the Saints won’t have Jarvis Landry or Michael Thomas available and Arizona has allowed 275 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. The Cardinals will get DeAndre Hopkins back for this matchup, which makes him a timely replacement for the injured Marquise Brown, but Arizona will still be short two offensive linemen. That will be a problem against a Saints pass rush that has posted three sacks in four straight games. It’s all enough to give New Orleans a very slight advantage in this matchup.


KC’s pick: New Orleans


Confidence level: 1


Atlanta at Cincinnati


Arthur Smith wanted his team to get fired up at the world underrating this club at the start of the year and his players have listened, as they have fought back from an 0-2 start to win three of their last four games. They have done this via the same system Smith used to have success in Tennessee, as the Falcons have rushed for 151+ yards in all but one contest this year and have committed only one giveaway in the past three games combined. That should result in plenty of ground gains against a Bengals defense that has given up 383 rushing yards the past two weeks, but the big question is can the Falcons defense that gave up 647 net passing yards in the last two weeks hold up against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and company? Probably not, and since the Falcons ground game will be hard pressed to match the Bengals aerial prowess, it’s a good idea to take Cincinnati at home in this one.


KC’s pick: Cincinnati


Confidence level: 2


NY Giants at Jacksonville


How in the world are the Giants 5-1? New York has posted more than 169 net passing yards only one time and has allowed 146+ rushing yards on four occasions, so it isn’t due to statistical dominance. A big part of it is Saquon Barkley has pretty much already clinched the comeback player of the year award for his efforts to keep New York’s offense moving, but the reality is Brian Daboll’s prowess for in-game coaching is the main reason for the impressive won/loss mark. Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson is quite adept in that area as well, but his club’s offense has been self-destructing of late with eight giveaways in the last three games. Having noted this, many opponents don’t tend to play well in Jacksonville in part because they don’t the Jaguars as seriously as they should. The Giants may be ripe for this due to having notched an impressive win over Baltimore last week and having a long west coast road trip to Seattle next week followed by a bye. That makes this a potential trap game, and it is why the Jaguars are the point spread favorite in this one and also the pick in this matchup.


KC’s pick: Jacksonville


Confidence level: 2


Indianapolis at Tennessee


The last 2-3 seasons have done a great job of showing the world just how streaky the matchups between AFC South teams can be. This has been the case with the home/away matchups between the Colts and Jaguars and it may be the case with the Colts and Titans in general. Indianapolis had dominated this series for many years, but the Titans have won four straight and five of the past six games against the Colts. That includes a Tennessee 24-17 win just three weeks ago, but the problem for the Titans is that the Colts had very little passing then but have now figured out how to throw with Matt Ryan under center. He has tossed 2+ touchdowns in three of the past four weeks and 350+ yards in two of the past three. The Titans defense ranks next to last in the league in yards per attempt and last in adjusted YPA (per Pro Football Reference), so Ryan could get 400+ passing yards in this one. The Tennessee offense is ill-equipped to keep up in that type of scoring fest, so this one should land in the win column of the Colts.


KC’s pick: Indianapolis


Confidence level: 3


Green Bay at Washington


The Packers offensive woes typically take center stage when talking about this club, but Green Bay’s defense is every bit as responsible for the team’s 3-3 mark. The Packers have allowed 471 rushing yards over the past three weeks and have generated only one takeaway in that span. That is why Green Bay has allowed 24+ points in each of the past three games, including 27 in each of the past two, but Washington will find it difficult to travel that path without Carson Wentz under center. The Commanders have posted 12 or fewer points in three of the past four games and haven’t topped the 17-point mark since Week 2. Green Bay’s offense isn’t what it was last year, but it has more than enough prowess to tally enough points to top the hamstrung Washington offense.


KC’s pick: Green Bay


Confidence level: 5


NY Jets at Denver


Russell Wilson showed early on in the Monday Night Football game against the Chargers that he still has some vertical passing prowess, as he went 10 for 10 during the first quarter of that game and completed all three of his vertical attempts. The issue for Denver is that Wilson’s production fell off a cliff after that, as he went 3 for 11 for 15 yards in the second half. Given all the injury reports around Wilson, it may be that physical woes are what are holding him back. The Jets, by contrast, don’t have anything holding them back, as Breece Hall is giving New York a dominant ground game and Sauce Gardner is helping turn the Jets defense into a brick wall. These trends don’t seem to be impressing the sports betting public, as the Broncos are an early 1-point favorite in this contest, but everything about this game leans in the direction of a second consecutive road upset for the Jets.


KC’s pick: New York


Confidence level: 4


Kansas City at San Francisco


Kansas City may have learned a new lesson about itself last week. Buffalo knew that a shootout approach would not work well against the Chiefs, as the Bills were 5-5 in shootouts over the past three years and two of those losses were against Kansas City. This is why Buffalo went with two tight end sets quite often in that game, as it wanted to slow things down and prevent the low percentage shootout. Kansas City usually does well in non-shootout games, but it lost that one 24-20 and is 3-0 in shootouts this year. San Francisco’s passing game has improved under Jimmy Garoppolo over the past couple of weeks, and the 49ers do have Deebo Samuel and an improving George Kittle to throw to, but if Kansas City does get the 49ers into shootout mode, it will play into the Chiefs hands. That means this game will come down to which club can force the other into its preferred mode and since the 49ers ground game has been struggling of late, that should make this game more likely to be a shootout that favors the Chiefs.


KC’s pick: Kansas City


Confidence level: 2


Pittsburgh at Miami


Pittsburgh is usually the team that loses games due to being overconfident, but last week the Steelers turned the tables by upsetting a Tampa Bay club that did not take them seriously enough. That won’t be an issue with Miami, as the Dolphins have lost three straight games after starting 3-0. Getting Tua Tagovailoa back will help Miami’s offense, but the reality is it hasn’t needed that much help gaining yards, as Tyreek Hill is on pace to post 2,000 receiving yards. Those yards haven’t turned into points often enough due to turnovers, as Miami has posted seven giveaways over the past three weeks. Pittsburgh has shown a penchant for takeaways, but the Steelers have a subpar rush defense and almost no pass rush. Pittsburgh also has a rush attack stuck in neutral and a rookie quarterback bouncing back from a concussion. Add those elements to this being a home game for Miami and the Dolphins earn this one.


KC’s pick: Miami


Confidence level: 4 


KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 167-65-2 since 2020 (including 8-4 the past two weeks), are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.