Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 6. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers. 

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 165-63-2 since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Washington at Chicago

Washington is finding out firsthand why Philadelphia and Indianapolis quickly got tired of the Carson Wentz experience, as the Commanders have eight giveaways on the season and have posted at least one in every contest. That trend will not bode well versus a Chicago defense that has tallied a takeaway in each of its five games. This is likely to be the difference maker in a very close game, as Chicago’s offense has its own penchant of giving the ball away (eight giveaways, at least one in every game) but Washington’s defense hasn’t registered a takeaway since it posted one in Week 1. Combine the likely turnover edge with home field and Chicago is the close choice here.

KC’s pick: Chicago

Confidence level: 1

Arizona at Seattle

The key to this matchup will be if Seattle can turn the game into a shootout (which is defined as a game where both teams score 24+ points). The Seahawks have done that for the past two games and were only one point away from doing it in three straight games. Kliff Kingsbury has a reputation for offensive excellence and his college teams got into a lot of shootout games, but the reality is he has avoided shootouts in the NFL, as he has been in only nine of them in the past three seasons. The bad news for Seattle is that they are 1-2 in shootouts this year and Kingsbury’s teams have a 6-3 record in those types of matchups and won the only game this year that came close to a shootout (a 29-23 OT win over the Raiders). That means Seattle’s preferred approach will play into its opponent’s hands, so take Arizona in this one. 

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 2

Baltimore at New York Giants

These teams both rely on a similar offensive formula for success, as the Giants have used a revitalized Saquon Barkley to post 387 rushing yards over the past two weeks and Baltimore has tallied 155+ rushing yards in four straight games due to the talents of Lamar Jackson. The similarities somewhat end there, as New York’s wins have mostly been against weak opponents, while Baltimore is only a couple of fourth quarter collapses away from posting five straight wins against quality foes. Talent tends to win out in the NFL and since the Ravens have more talent and have been playing to that talent level for nearly the entire season, they should end the mirage of New York being a topflight team.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 5

Buffalo at Kansas City

Games don’t get much bigger than this and were it not for a pair of Week 3 upsets, this game would be between unbeaten clubs. Each team’s offensive skills are well known and will be on display in this contest, so this matchup will likely come down to which defense holds up better. The Bills have a huge edge in the battle of those platoons, as they rank in the top three in offensive scoring drive percentage, turnover drive percentage, and expected points added. The Chiefs do not fare anywhere near as well, as Kansas City’s defense is in the bottom half of the league in all those categories. That should be enough to give Buffalo at least a one-drive advantage in this contest and that will be the deciding factor.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 1

Cincinnati at New Orleans

The defending AFC champions are having their share of problems, as offensive line woes have led a step down in offensive production that has largely contributed to Cincinnati’s 2-3 record. That will be a problem against a Saints pass rush that racked up three sacks in three of the past four games. New Orleans also showcased a powerhouse 1-2 rushing combination of Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill last week that helped the Saints post 235 rushing yards. As beneficial as that aspect will be, New Orleans still has a huge giveaway problem, as the Saints have posted 10 of these in the past four weeks and at least two in each of those contests. The Bengals defense has tallied eight takeaways in its last four matchups and Cincinnati has given the ball away only twice in that span. That factor should be enough to grant the Bengals a close victory.

KC’s pick: Cincinnati

Confidence level: 2

Dallas at Philadelphia

This is the return of the great days of yesteryear that featured compelling primetime showdowns between strong NFC East teams. The Eagles ability to win in myriad ways showed up last week when Philadelphia got out to an early lead and then fell victim to the perfect trap game before registering a win because its backup kicker (Cameron Dicker) was better than the Cardinals replacement kicker. Dallas has fewer paths to victory, as having Cooper Rush under center has forced the Cowboys to go with a high percentage approach on offense and a big play approach on defense. It is possible that Dak Prescott will play in this game, but if he does, he will be facing a very strong Eagles pass rush. Combine that with the homefield advantage and Philadelphia’s lack of weaknesses and it should lead to the Eagles being victorious in this matchup.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 2

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

The hex that the Jaguars have over the Colts in games in Jacksonville was on full display a few weeks ago, but that negative mojo doesn’t extend to games in Indianapolis, as the Colts have won four straight and eight out of the last nine matchups in the heartland. The problem in keeping that streak going is that Jonathan Taylor may not be playing in this contest and Matt Ryan has been a disaster, but Jacksonville’s offense has posted seven giveaways the past two weeks. Add that a Jaguars pass rush that has been less than stellar of late, and it means the Colts will have the mojo in this contest.

KC’s pick: Indianapolis

Confidence level: 4

Minnesota at Miami

New Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has lived to hopes that he would make Minnesota’s offense a powerhouse, as the Vikings have tallied 23+ points in four out of five games. The problem for the Vikings is that their defense hasn’t taken an equivalent step forward, as Minnesota has allowed 22+ points in four of the past five games. That could open the door for this game to become a shootout, but if that happens, Miami will be undermanned in its efforts to keep up, as Tua Tagovailoa has already been ruled out and Teddy Bridgewater likely won’t play. The Dolphins will try to slow this game down with a revamped run game, but Miami has allowed 27+ points in three out of the past four contests, including 67 over the past two weeks. Merge that with the Dolphins defense having one takeaway in the past four games and the Vikings should end up ahead in a high scoring matchup.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 5

New England at Cleveland

The Patriots could be getting Mac Jones back for this game and he could help return the passing game to a much better level than it has been at for the past couple of games, but New England’s biggest issue is an inconsistent defense that has allowed 188+ rushing yards in two of the past three games and has posted some subpar pass coverage metrics as well. The Browns have the best run blocking wall in the NFL and that has led to Cleveland racking up 171+ rushing yards in every game this year. The Patriots will be able to match that rushing prowess due to Cleveland allowing 440 rushing yards over the past two games, but the Damien Harris injury means that the Browns have the better set of running backs. Combine that with home field and the Browns are the preferred option.

KC’s pick: Cleveland

Confidence level: 3

New York Jets at Green Bay

Jets head coach Robert Saleh told the world earlier this year that the Jets were a lot better than people thought and his team has backed up those words over the past few weeks with three victories in four games. Breece Hall now looks like the impact player New York was hoping for in the NFL Draft and the Jets defense has now gotten stingy, as Sauce Gardner is making plays to help this platoon tally six takeaways in the past two games. Green Bay’s stubbornness to keep away from the ground game in key situations is not a one-game anomaly, as this has been going on for a few weeks now. That may cause the Packers to irritate Aaron Rodgers by calling for more rushes than he would like, but that will be key to a Green Bay win in a game that will go down to the wire.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 1

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 165-63-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.