Here are my Week 5 picks with confidence level selections. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available for all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The picks with a 6+ confidence level, a group of selections that have netted a 100-34 record over the past two seasons (including a 17-6 mark this year), will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheatcode to beat the sportsbooks over the last five years.

Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
KC’s pick: Los Angeles | Confidence level: 4

Pete Carroll must be having nightmares about this past three game stretch being much last year’s early season defensive debacle. The Seahawks have allowed 450+ offensive yards and 84 points in that span and these woes have been both on the ground, as Seattle gave up 495 rushing yards, and in the air, with three straight 300+ yard games.

The Rams have had some defensive issues of their own of late, but the big difference here is Los Angeles has the makings of a strong secondary and Seattle just got done benching a starting cornerback and replacing him with Sidney Jones, who has allowed and 81.8 percent completion rate and 11.9 yards per target (per Pro Football Reference).

That means a defensive turnaround is more likely for the Rams than it is for Seattle, so Los Angeles gets this pick despite this being a short week divisional road game for the Rams.

New York Jets at Atlanta

KC’s pick: Atlanta | Confidence level: 4

Zach Wilson deserves a lot of credit for a turnaround performance last week against the Titans, as the addition of Jamison Crowder and development of Corey Davis helped the Jets offense get out of the ditch and resulted in New York’s first victory of the season. Having noted this, Wilson still takes more foolish risks than any quarterback in the league and gets hit with far too many sacks.

It’s very tough to trust a rookie like that in what will be a 9 AM local time game since this contest will take place in London. Add that to the big play ability of the Falcons offense and Atlanta is the choice here.

Green Bay at Cincinnati

KC’s pick: Green Bay | Confidence level: 3

The Packers got out to a terrible start this year, but since then have run off three straight wins by scoring 27+ points in every game and racking up six takeaways on defense.

The Bengals are out to a surprising 3-1 start on the strength of a defense that ranks fourth in scoring drive percentage allowed. Cincinnati has another potential advantage in this contest, as the Packers will almost certainly not have star cornerback Jaire Alexander available for this matchup. That could allow the Bengals to get into a shootout mode that might offset the personnel advantage Green Bay has in this matchup, but Cincinnati could also be without Joe Mixon. That means the Bengals likely won’t have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and company, so the Packers are the pick.

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

KC’s pick: Denver | Confidence level: 2

Coming into the season it would have been no surprise that one of these clubs would be 3-1 and the other 1-3 headed into this matchup, but the Steelers would have been the near unanimous choice for the 3-1 record.

Pittsburgh’s problems are myriad, as the Steelers may be the worst run blocking team in the league, Ben Roethlisberger’s arm may be shot, their pass rush has fallen off some, and their secondary is a work in progress. Vic Fangio has the Broncos defense playing superbly and Denver’s offense is no longer an impediment. The problem here is that Teddy Bridgewater might miss this contest and be replaced by Drew Lock. If that happens, this pick will go Pittsburgh’s way, but since Bridgewater is likely to start, the Broncos get the call.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

KC’s pick: Baltimore | Confidence level: 4

The most impressive part of the Ravens 3-1 record is that they have achieved it despite having a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball. That’s the benefit of operating a run-heavy offense and stockpiling a ton of defensive talent. The Colts have been equally banged up but haven’t been as successful in overcoming those issues, in part because their oft injured quarterback is dealing with ailments in both of his ankles and hasn’t been able to play to his talent level. Baltimore also hosts this contest, so the Ravens get the pick in this one.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team

KC’s pick: Washington | Confidence level: 1

Sean Payton is operating a one-dimensional offense because the Saints have a terrible receiving corps and because he doesn’t want Jameis Winston to throw any more passes than is absolutely necessary. By contrast, Washington’s pass defense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29 th in passing yards allowed and tied for 29 th in passing touchdowns allowed.

The Football Team has a strong passing game and rushing attack, but the Saints also have a stout defense in both areas. Since this game is so close personnel-wise, the homefield tiebreaker is called for and Washington is the preferred option by a very small margin.

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers

KC’s pick: Los Angeles | Confidence level: 1

This is arguably the most compelling matchup of the week, as both of these potential Super Bowl contenders are off to 3-1 starts and could have won all four games were it not for a couple of unfortunate plays. Cleveland has racked up 150+ rushing yards in all four contests and has yet to allow more than 82 rushing yards in a game.

The Chargers have done it mostly on offense, but last week this looked like a classic Brandon Staley Rams defense in shutting down the explosive Raiders passing attack. This is another instance where the talent levels are so close that the homefield tiebreaker comes into play, so take the Chargers.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

KC’s pick: Arizona | Confidence level: 3

This is a near must-win contest for the 49ers, because if they lose this game, they will be three games back in the NFC West and on the wrong side of the primary tiebreaker. That will give San Francisco plenty of motivation, but the 49ers could be dealing with a quarterback change, as Trey Lance may have to start in place of the injured Jimmy Garoppolo.

Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack also hasn’t been able to make up for breakaway ability it lost to injury. Combine these factors with Arizona’s offense playing at its peak level and the Cardinals having what might be the most athletic defense in the league and Arizona is the preferred option.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

KC’s pick: Buffalo | Confidence level: 2

This 2020 AFC Championship rematch is the most important game in the AFC so far this year. Buffalo’s offense has been on a tear the past three weeks, as the Bills have posted 118 points on the scoreboard in that span. More importantly for Buffalo’s Super Bowl chances, the Bills are winning with a Sean McDermott-approval formula of a strong rushing attack (117+ yards on the ground in every contest) and a powerhouse defense that has yet to allow 300 offensive yards.

The Chiefs have somewhat gotten away from their 2019 approach to winning, as their defensive woes and untimely interceptions by Patrick Mahomes have caused this team to get into four straight shootouts. The Bills can win in a high scoring matchup, but they also have multiple other paths to victory that Kansas City doesn’t have, so Buffalo is the percentage play here.

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 100-34 over the
past two seasons (including a 17-6 mark this year), are available exclusively to
Pickwatch Pro subscribers.