Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 4. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 157-60-2 since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Miami at Cincinnati
It might seem odd that the Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this matchup, as Miami is undefeated and Cincinnati is 1-2, but it took a legendary collapse by an injury-wracked Baltimore secondary to give Miami that win and one missed block on an extra point kept the Bengals from a Week 1 victory over Pittsburgh. Take out the 28 points the Dolphins scored in the fourth quarter of that Ravens game and Miami has posted only 55 points in 11 quarters, or roughly 20 points per game. Cincinnati’s offense is playing better than that of late and the Bengals defense has held up well. Add that to it being a short week road contest for Miami and the Bengals are the pick in this one.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 4
Minnesota at New Orleans
The most amazing part of this matchup is that both of these clubs are stocked with impact offensive players yet rank quite poorly in offensive scoring drive rate as the Vikings place 22nd in that category and the Saints are next to last (per Pro Football Reference). Having noted this, Minnesota making more of an impact when it does score, as the Vikings rank 11th in offensive expected points added (EPA), while New Orleans is 31st. The Saints will have a healthy quarterback under center, as Andy Dalton is in for the injured Jameis Winston, but Minnesota will have Dalvin Cook and New Orleans will be without Michael Thomas and has other injuries to deal with, so the Vikings are the pick here.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Cleveland at Atlanta
The Browns offense has been surprisingly powerful this year, as one of the best run blocking walls in the league has led Cleveland to rank sixth in offensive EPA. Atlanta can make a similar claim, as the Falcons strong rushing attack has helped it to land ninth in offensive EPA. That will make the offensive showdown here even and could make this game a 50/50 shootout proposition, but Cleveland has a huge edge in defensive metrics, as it has middle of the road rankings in most categories while Atlanta is 30th in scoring drive rate allowed and 27th in defensive EPA, so the Browns are the pick here.
KC’s pick: Cleveland
Confidence level: 3
Buffalo at Baltimore
The Bills were barreling along as the best team in the NFL before last week’s shocking loss to Miami. A major factor in that defeat was secondary injuries and it could be again this week since Buffalo will be without cornerback Christian Benford in this game and have cornerback Dane Jackson and safety Jordan Poyer listed as questionable. Baltimore ran into secondary problems of their own against the Dolphins when injuries there allowed Miami to post that incredible 28-point fourth quarter, but Baltimore looks to be in a better way in that area for this matchup. The problem for the Ravens is they aren’t built to take advantage of that weakness and Buffalo is stout against the run, so take the Bills in this one.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 3
Washington at Dallas
Washington is the biggest risk/reward team in the league, as Carson Wentz and Antonio Gibson are two of the most error prone players in the league at their respective positions but make their share of big plays. Those home runs have led Washington to score 27+ points twice yet the lack of consistency has also resulted in the Commanders ranking 30th in scoring drive rate. Dallas is far from a great offense, but they have posted mid-tier metrics with Cooper Rush under center and get Michael Gallup back this week. Combine that with this being a home contest for the Cowboys and Dallas lands this selection.
KC’s pick: Dallas
Confidence level: 4
Tennessee at Indianapolis
The Titans have had the Colts number of late, as Tennessee has won three straight games in this series as well as four out of the last five. Offense has been the key to those wins, as the Titans racked up 34 points in three of those victories, but that may be a tough path to take this year since Tennessee ranks 27th in offensive scoring rate. They also face a Colts defense that has allowed the lowest rush yards per carry this year. The Titans are on the flip side of that coin, as Tennessee ranks last in that category. Since this game may go as Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor go, this makes the Colts the better option.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 5
Chicago at NY Giants
The Bears and Giants are two of the surprise teams through three weeks of the 2022 season, as both were expected to be doormats but instead sport 2-1 records. Stout rushing attacks are the reason why, as Chicago and New York rank second and fourth, respectively, in rushing yards and second and third, respectively, in rushing EPA. Since these clubs aren’t very good at stopping the run, it comes down to the Giants have a solid edge in the passing game and being at home, so take New York here.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 1
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Philadelphia is rightfully considered to be one of the top three Super Bowl contenders right now, as the Eagles have shown that they can win throwing and rushing the ball and are just as capable of stopping the run or the pass. Even noting those elements, it’s kind of surprising that the Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this matchup, as Jacksonville nearly beat Washington in Week 1 and defeated Indianapolis and the Chargers by a combined 62-10 in Weeks 2-3. The Jaguars also have the highest offensive scoring drive rate and rank third in defensive scoring rate allowed. Given those factors, an argument can be made that the point spread should be closer than that, but the Eagles myriad winning ways and hosting this contest given them the straight up advantage.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 2
NY Jets at Pittsburgh
It’s tough to a get a read on this game in large part due to the Jets installing Zach Wilson at quarterback in place of Joe Flacco. Wilson had some of the worst passing metrics in the 2021 season and thus could be a hindrance to an offense that was just starting to show some progress. The Steelers are in a similar boat with their passing game, as Mitch Trubisky just can’t seem to get the vertical game going even after attempting more of those throws against the Browns in the Week 3 Thursday night game. The differentiator in this one should be Pittsburgh’s takeaway penchant, as they rank sixth in defensive turnover drive rate and will have Minkah Fitzpatrick in the lineup after he cleared the concussion protocol, so take the Steelers.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 5
Arizona at Carolina
The pressure is on both of these teams to win, as a Kyler Murray highlight performance against the Raiders is the only reason the Cardinals aren’t winless, and Carolina’s only win occurred against a team whose quarterback was playing with multiple fractures in his back. Arizona’s biggest issue is a Swiss cheese defense that has allowed opponents to score on a ridiculously high 57.1 percent of their drive. For perspective, that is last in the league and the next worst team in that category (Seattle) weighs in with a 51.9 percent rate. Carolina may be without Christian McCaffrey in this one, as he was only able to log one limited practice this week, but the Panthers still have enough weapons on offense to partake of that weakness and when that is added to the Cardinals cross country road trip, it gives the edge to the Panthers.
KC’s pick: Carolina
Confidence level: 1
Denver at Las Vegas
The Broncos are the most disappointing 2-1 team in the league, as their victories have occurred despite Russell Wilson looking nothing like the impactful vertical passer that he was in Seattle for years. That has led to three games with Denver scoring 16 or fewer points, but don’t be entirely swayed by those numbers, as the Broncos have still been quite efficient through the air, placing eighth in offensive passing EPA. Las Vegas may be the most disappointing team in the league overall, as the Raiders have an awful defense (25th in defensive EPA) and one of the worst ground games in the NFL (ranked 29th). Denver never makes it easy but Las Vegas’ weaknesses should be enough to vault the Broncos to another win.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 2
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
The Chiefs have operated more of a dink and dunk passing offense this season and that approach has worked to elevate Kansas City to fourth in net yards per pass attempt. It has also been a big boon near the goal line, as Patrick Mahomes ranks first in touchdown passes at or inside the 10-yard line. Tampa Bay can counter this with a bruising defense that leads the league in scoring drive percentage, is fourth in turnover drive rate, and tops the NFL with a 41.89 defensive EPA that is over 17 points higher than the second-place team in that category. Those two platoons may cancel each other out, and since Kansas City’s defense is well ahead of a Tampa Bay offense that is among the worst in the league, Kansas City gets this one by a small margin.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 2
LA Rams at San Francisco
This is a battle of two teams that really haven’t established their identities this season. Los Angeles came into this year with a Super Bowl hangover and promptly lost to the Bills in Week 1, barely beat an outmatched Atlanta squad in Week 2 and hung on for a close win against a mediocre Arizona club. San Francisco knew what it wanted to be at the start of the year, but the rain and wind at Chicago stopped the Trey Lance express in Week 1 and an injury in Week 2 stopped it for good this year. The switch to Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t go as smoothly as hoped for in Week 3, but San Francisco is home, getting healthy and has defeated the Rams six straight times in the regular season, so they are the preferred option.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 157-60-2 since 2020 are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
