Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 11. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a group that went 24-11 over the past three weeks) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers. 


The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 178-73-2 record since 2020 (including 21-13 since Week 4), will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last six years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.


Tennessee at Green Bay


Christian Watson is getting much of the credit for the Packers upset win over the Cowboys in Week 10, but the real offensive generator for Green Bay is the running game, as Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have led this club to 200+ rushing yards in two of the past three games. The problem for Green Bay is that Tennessee has hands down the best rush defense in the NFL, as the Titans have allowed 77 or fewer rushing yards in six straight games. Tennessee also has Derrick Henry, whose power rushing skills should come in handy against a Packers defense that has allowed 150+ rushing yards in four of the past five games. Add in Green Bay’s offense being turnover prone (five in the past two games) and the Titans allowing 10 points in three of the past four games and Tennessee is the pick here.


KC’s pick: Tennessee


Confidence level: 3


Chicago at Atlanta


The Bears can lay claim to being the best rushing offense in a five-game span in NFL history, as Chicago is the first team to rush for 230+ yards in five straight games. This has largely been due to the skills of Justin Fields, so the loss of Khalil Herbert to injury should not slow this rush attack. The Falcons defense also looks ill-suited to the task, as Atlanta gave up 232 and 169 rushing yards, respectively, to Carolina in Weeks 8 and 10. The issue for the Bears is that their defense is as ineffective as their rushing game is dominant, as Chicago has allowed 115 points over the past three games. Atlanta has scored 23+ points six times this year but has done so only once in the past four weeks, so the Bears should be able to finally win a shootout.


KC’s pick: Chicago


Confidence level: 2


Cleveland at Buffalo


As of this writing, this game is still slated to be played on Sunday at 1 PM ET. That is important because the weather forecast indicates there could be multiple feet of lake effect snow hitting Buffalo this weekend. If that happens, the game is a total toss up, so this assumes that the game will be moved to a venue or date/time that clears the weather forecast up.


With that caveat out of the way, the Bills are a team showing multiple weaknesses, as Josh Allen’s elbow injury has led to his being a turnover machine and Buffalo giving the ball away eight times in the past three weeks. The Bills rush defense is also a major impediment of late, having allowed 529 yards over the past three games. Even with those problems, Buffalo beat Green Bay and lost to Minnesota due in part to arguably the greatest catch in NFL history. Cleveland’s struggling ground game may get some movement against the aforementioned subpar rush defense, but the Browns just allowed Miami to rack up 39 points and will have issues slowing the Bills attack, so Buffalo the preferred pick.


KC’s pick: Buffalo


Confidence level: 5


Washington at Houston


It’s the Taylor Heinicke show in Washington, as the Commanders have won four of the past five games in part due to players rallying around his fiery leadership. Having a 1-2 combination of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson doesn’t hurt, either, as those two and Washington’s powerhouse offensive blocking wall controlled the line of scrimmage against the Eagles all night in Washington’s upset win last week. The Commanders are also quite effective against the run, allowing fewer than 100 yards on the ground in three of the past four games, and have also generated 10 takeaways in the past five weeks. Houston’s offense basically goes as far as Dameon Pierce will take them and he’s looking somewhat worn down of late. Combine that with Houston allowing 136+ rushing yards in all but one game and Washington is the option to go with.  


KC’s pick: Washington


Confidence level: 4


NY Jets at New England


The Patriots have won 13 straight against the Jets and haven’t lost to them in New England since a Divisional playoff game back in January 2011. That hex is part of what threw New York off in a 22-17 loss versus New England in Week 8, but another element was creative defensive play calling by the Patriots. Even with that advantage, the Jets passing game racked up 336 net passing yards. The Jets have also posted 135+ rushing yards in four of the past five games, with the only exception being that Week 8 game, but New York didn’t have James Robinson at full speed in that matchup, as he had only joined the club that week. Robert Saleh is a very smart coach and will adjust to the tricks that helped New England win the first time around, so the Jets are the pick here.


KC’s pick: New York


Confidence level: 2


LA Rams at New Orleans


This is one ugly game. The Rams lost season took another huge hit when Cooper Kupp was declared out for an indefinite time due to an ankle injury. Los Angeles also has a train wreck of an offensive line that got even worse this week when Los Angeles lost two more offensive linemen to assorted ailments. The Saints may end up going with Jameis Winston in this one to stop the collapse of the Andy Dalton-directed offense. Both teams have struggle defensively, but the Saints still have the offensive firepower of Alvin Kamara. He may be the best offensive playmaker on either team and his presence is enough to turn this disaster of a matchup in the Saints direction.


KC’s pick: New Orleans


Confidence level: 1


Detroit at NY Giants


New York is still a proverbial house of mirrors, as the Giants are winning despite having a solid but not great defense and a revolving door of pass catchers on offense. What New York does have going for it is Saquon Barkley, who led the team to 191 yards on the ground last week. Detroit tends to get into a lot of shootouts, having been in six of them this year, but the Lions aren’t particularly adept at those games, having posted a 2-4 mark in them. New York has yet to be in a shootout and since Detroit allowed 258 rushing yards last week, it’s likely the Giants will be able to slow the game down enough to avoid that scenario and secure a win.


KC’s pick: New York


Confidence level: 5


Las Vegas at Denver


The problem for the Raiders is they just can’t stop anyone on defense. Las Vegas has allowed 20+ points in every game this year and has given up 400+ offensive yards in three of the past four contests. That trend could come to an end against a Denver squad that has scored 20+ points only twice, but let’s note that one of those contests was a 32-23 loss to Las Vegas in Week 4. The Broncos are also dealing with some injuries and can struggle at times to stop the run (155+ rush yards allowed in two of the past three games). That gives the Raiders some paths to victory that Denver doesn’t have, but the reality is that these are two bad teams, so the Broncos get this one by a very nominal margin.


KC’s pick: Denver


Confidence level: 1


Kansas City at LA Chargers


The Chargers built this entire team to maximize Justin Herbert’s skill set, which is why Los Angeles has had such a tough time dealing with the injuries to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. That adjustment may be over since Williams and Allen are both trending towards returning this week, but the trouble for the Chargers is that neither of them play rush defense. Los Angeles has been awful in that area, allowing 150+ yards in four of the past five games and 200+ in three of those games. Kansas City has the ability to move the ball on the ground, as evidenced by 155 rushing yards against Jacksonville last week, but the Chiefs can also go toe-to-toe with the Chargers through the air and may have become even more dangerous with the addition of impact possession receiver Kadarius Toney. Factor in potential injury rust for Williams and/or Allen and the Chiefs are the way to go here.


KC’s pick: Kansas City


Confidence level: 4


Dallas at Minnesota


This is the game of the week, as Dallas needs a win to stay close to Philadelphia for the NFC East lead and the Vikings need a win to try to pass the Eagles for the lead in the NFC home-field advantage race. Minnesota is the king of the shootouts this year, as their 4-0 record is the best in the league in that category. The Cowboys didn’t start getting into shootouts until Dak Prescott returned, and they may wish they hadn’t, as Dallas had won five out of six until those shootouts started and then went 1-1 in those high scoring games. The Cowboys rush defense has been atrocious, allowing 447 yards over the past two weeks, so they could be very hard pressed to keep the Vikings dangerous aerial game in check. Since that bodes well for a shootout to occur, Minnesota is the pick.


KC’s pick: Minnesota


Confidence level: 3


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh


The bye week came at a perfect time, as it allowed Pittsburgh to end its slump by posting a 20-10 win over New Orleans in Week 10. The Steelers looked like vastly improved in many areas, as they allowed only 29 rush yards, posted 217 rushing yards, and finally got some pass rush with the return of T.J. Watt. As great as those numbers were, they were posted against a limited Saints offense that had Alvin Kamara and not much else. The Bengals have Joe Mixon, but they also have Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins and a defense that has tallied five takeaways in the past two weeks. Asking too much from Kenny Pickett is also a stretch given how he has struggled, so the Bengals are the selection.


KC’s pick: Cincinnati


Confidence level: 2


KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 178-73-2 since 2020 (including 21-13 since Week 4), are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.