Hello again! Here are my Week 11 fantasy football notes.
Washington at Philadelphia
The Eagles defense may be playing better than any defense in the league right now. That places low production ceilings on all Washington players. It drops Brian Robinson to the bottom of the RB2 tier, makes Austin Ekeler a sit candidate in many leagues, keeps Terry McLaurin in the WR2 tier and may keep Jayden Daniels from returning to the land of 20+ points.
Green Bay at Chicago
The Bears have been the worst offense in the league for the past few weeks and this is not a matchup that portends a turnaround. That means DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze all belong on most fantasy benches. The exception in this offense is D’Andre Swift, but even he is stuck as a middling RB2.
Jacksonville at Detroit
Jared Goff played like a QB1 in Weeks 4-7, but that was a mirage mostly because Detroit doesn’t throw the ball enough to give Goff fantasy production consistency. That won’t change this week since Jacksonville provides the Lions with an extremely favorable rush defense matchup will push the Detroit to lean on the ground game early and often. Goff may score more than 10 points for the first time in three games, but he really doesn’t belong in most lineups.
Las Vegas at Miami
Consider picking Jaylen Wright up on waivers. The Dolphins have been operating a platoon backfield all year, with De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert splitting those carries. The Monday night game saw a potential change to that setup, with Mostert getting no carries and Jaylen Wright serving as the other platoon back. One game isn’t enough to say if this is permanent, but now is the time to roster Wright in the event it is.
The rest of KC Joyner’s Week 11 fantasy football notes are available exclusively for Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Los Angeles Rams at New England
The Rams D/ST has scored seven or more points in every game since Week 4 and tallied 9+ points in four of the past five games. Despite this scoring binge, the Los Angeles D/ST is still available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues. This is a really favorable matchup that bodes towards another strong scoring performance, so pick this D/ST up if you need an upgrade there.
Cleveland at New Orleans
Nick Chubb has been a huge disappointment so far following his return from a knee injury. That scoring trend is on pace to change, as the Saints have posted some terrible rush defense metrics of late. Add that to Kevin Stefanski wanting to protect this offense from Jameis Winston’s interceptions and it should be an impact game for Chubb. Get him into starting lineups this week, even if only as a flex.
Indianapolis at New York Jets
The Jets D/ST has posted four games with 10+ points this year. The issue is that this D/ST has also tallied negative points in two of the past four weeks.
That will cause managers to consider looking elsewhere for a D/ST, but they shouldn’t. Indianapolis has terrible metrics in nearly every category that helps D/ST scoring. It’s the type of thing that offers the Jets a golden opportunity for another 10+ point game, so start this D/ST if you have it or pick it up in the 36 percent of ESPN leagues the Jets D/ST is available.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Zay Flowers is a huge start-sit question mark this week. Starting in Week 2, Flowers has either posted 18+ PPR points or notched 7.4 or fewer points (and three of those low scoring games were 5.3 or fewer). This is a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that has posted some strong coverage metrics. That’s not to say that Flowers is a sit candidate, but if your team needs a percentage play, he’s not the one to go with this week.
Minnesota at Tennessee
Calvin Ridley has been on a tear of late, scoring 60.3 PPR points in the past three weeks. The Vikings defense is very good overall, but Ridley’s cornerback coverage matchup grade is among the best in Week 11. Add it up and he’s belongs in all starting lineups, even if only as a flex.
Atlanta at Denver
Bo Nix has been a mid-tier QB1 for many weeks now yet is still available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues. If that’s the case in your league and you don’t have one of the elite QBs, strongly consider claiming Nix. He’s got arguably the most favorable matchup in Week 11, as the Falcons have dismal pass coverage metrics of late. It’s a strong enough factor to move Nix to upper-tier QB1 status this week.
Seattle at San Francisco
This could be one of Geno Smith’s upside games, as the Seahawks will have to throw the ball early and often to keep up with a 49ers offense that could score 30+ points against the atrocious Seahawks defense. Having D.K. Metcalf back is a big help. Merge these elements and it makes Smith a low-end QB1 with upside potential.
Kansas City at Buffalo
The Chiefs secondary has posted subpar coverage numbers of late. That makes Khalil Shakir a high floor flex candidate. Dawson Knox is also a longshot upside candidate, as Dalton Kincaid looks to be on track to miss this contest.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers
Don’t worry too much about Gus Edwards vulturing any of J.K. Dobbins’ workload. This is a Jim Harbaugh offense, so there will be plenty of carries to go around and giving Dobbins a break from bell cow wear and tear will help keep him at full speed.
It would be great if the platoon split gave Edwards some fantasy value, but right now it looks much like what happened earlier this year when Edwards got plenty of carries but turned them into very few fantasy points.
Houston at Dallas
This may seem like a favorable matchup for C.J. Stroud, especially with Nico Collins on track to return, but don’t underestimate just how bad the Houston offense has been of late. Stroud hasn’t scored as many as 13 points in a game in over a month. Combine that with Joe Mixon being a true bell cow (he has tallied 99 carries over the past four weeks) and the Dallas defense being dismal versus the run and Stroud is trending towards QB2 status.