My Week 9 picks went 9-5, bringing my 2020 season mark to 90-42, or a 68.2 percent win rate.

Here are my Week 10 picks. Each section details which team is predicted to win and provides a quick summary of why that selection was made. The picks also contain a confidence value for each selection, based on a 1-10 scale with “10” being the most confident and “1” being the least confident.

Now on to the picks!

Thursday, November 12

Indianapolis at Tennessee

KC’s pick: Tennessee

Confidence level: 3

The Titans started off the year with five straight wins but have since lost two of the past three due in large part to their offense. Tennessee racked up 31+ points in four out of its first five games but has since scored 24 or fewer points in three straight and tallied fewer than 300 net offensive yards in two of those games. That is not a good trend against a Colts defense that has allowed fewer than 300 net offensive yards in five contests this year. Turnovers may afford the Titans the necessary edge, as Tennessee has five games with two or more takeaways and could make it six against the risk-taking Philip Rivers. Throw in this being a short week road game for the Colts and the Titans get the pick in this one.

Sunday, November 15

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 3

To get an idea just how much of an impact Joe Burrow has had on the Bengals offense, consider this. In 2019, Cincinnati had six games with 350+ offensive yards for the entire season. They already have five games with 350+ offensive yards at the halfway point of this season. That might normally be an unrealistic goal against the powerhouse Steelers defense, but Pittsburgh has given up 821 offensive yards over the past two weeks. The Black and Gold could also be missing Ben Roethlisberger in this contest, as he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Tuesday. Pittsburgh has won 10 straight against the Bengals and has home-field advantage and a huge talent edge in this contest and thus is the selection here, but the COVID issues lower the confidence level considerably in this one.

Philadelphia at New York Giants

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 2

The Eagles have been a giveaway machine on offense and have posted more than 250 net passing yards in only one game this year, yet Doug Pederson’s playcalling creativity and Travis Fulgham’s big play ability have pushed Philadelphia to tally 22+ points in six straight games. The Giants may not want to test an Eagles secondary that has allowed fewer than 260 net passing yards in all but one game this year, but they will want to go after the Philadelphia rush defense that has surprisingly given up 130+ rushing yards in four straight games. The key to this pick is Daniel Jones, as he may be the only other quarterback in the NFL to be as turnover prone as Carson Wentz. That eliminates the biggest potential advantage New York has in this contest, so the selection goes to the Eagles by a very small margin.

Jacksonville at Green Bay

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 9

This is the biggest mismatch of Week 10. The Packers had to go with a revamped backfield last week in a short-week road contest versus San Francisco and yet still racked up 34 points, 405 offensive yards, and 111 rushing yards despite being in cruise control for much of the second half. The Jaguars offense did show more big play ability last week in rookie quarterback Jake Luton’s first start, but Jacksonville has lost seven straight games in large part because they have allowed 27+ points in seven straight games and have posted only seven takeaways all year. Add in this being a home game for the Packers and this selection easily lands in their column.

Washington at Detroit

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 2

Five turnovers were the main reason Washington lost to the Giants last week, but let’s not overlook that the Football Team had a season high in passing yards and offensive yards last week in part because their third string quarterback would be the top backup on most teams. The Lions offense should be their strong suit, but Detroit has posted 23 or fewer points in three straight contests. The Lions also have the makings of an atrocious rush defense, as they gave up 275 ground yards to the Vikings last week. This is truly the definition of a toss-up game, so Detroit gets the pick due to home field advantage and having a slight edge in offensive playmakers over Washington.

Houston at Cleveland

KC’s pick: Cleveland

Confidence level: 7

There may not be a platoon with a wider performance variance than the Browns offense. Cleveland has racked up five games with 32+ points this year and is 5-0 in those contests, but they also have posted three games with seven or fewer points and have lost all of those matchups. This means the Houston defense will be the key factor in this battle, but that doesn’t bode well for the Texans, as Houston has allowed more than 360 yards in every game this year, has posted five games with zero takeaways, and has given up 28+ points in six games. Those elements push this pick strongly in Cleveland’s direction.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

KC’s pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence level: 6

What in the world was that? Tampa Bay’s offense had been on a roll headed into the Sunday night matchup against the Saints, but a variety of factors led Tom Brady to have what was arguably the worst game of his career. Having noted this, there are few teams as creative as New Orleans, so this almost certainly isn’t an omen for the Buccaneers future production. The Panthers saw an offensive renaissance last week with the return of Christian McCaffrey, but CMC could either miss this contest or be at less than full strength due to a shoulder ailment. That should afford Tampa Bay more paths to victory in this one, so they earn this selection with a solid confidence level.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami

KC’s pick: Miami

Confidence level: 5

The Chargers might seem like they are extremely unlucky given how many close games they have lost, yet the reality is they are getting into too many shootout games. Those are 50/50 propositions for even the best offenses in NFL history, so the Chargers 1-4 mark in those types of battles simply indicates they should not be getting into shootouts any more than is necessary. That is potential good news against a Miami team that has only been in two shootout games this year, but the bad news is the Chargers have to face a Dolphins defense that is tied for sixth in turnover drive percentage. Miami has had zero turnovers in four of their past six games, so they will probably win that important statistical battle as well as this contest.

Denver at Las Vegas

KC’s pick: Las Vegas

Confidence level: 4

This is a matchup of two teams on the rise, as Denver has won three of its past five and the Raiders have victories in three of their last four games. The Silver and Black’s success has been due to posting 140+ rushing yards in each of those three victories, including 369 rushing yards in the past two games. The Broncos improvement has been in both the passing game, as they had a season high 302 net passing yards last week, and in takeaways, as Denver has racked up seven takeaways in the past four contests. That latter trait may not come in handy against a Raiders offense that has only three turnovers in its past four games. Add that to this game being in the desert and the Raiders are the pick in this one.

Buffalo at Arizona

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 4

For most offenses, posting 400 or more offensive yards in a game is notable achievement. For the Cardinals it’s just another day at the office, as Arizona has now posted 400+ offensive yards in four straight games and has tallied six games of this caliber for the season. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as prolific in this area, but they have notched four games with 400+ offensive yards this year, including in two of the past three. The key here may be rush production consistency, as the Cardinals have tallied 100+ rushing yards in every game this year while the Bills have only hit triple-digits in that area four times. Combine that with this being in Arizona and the selection goes to the Cardinals.

San Francisco at New Orleans

KC’s pick: New Orleans

Confidence level: 7

It’s tough to hold the Week 9 Thursday night debacle against the 49ers, as they were so beset with injuries and COVID-19 losses that they were almost playing an entire second-string squad against the Packers. Having noted this, San Francisco has still lost four of its past six games and two of its four victories this year came against the New York clubs that have a total of two wins between them. The Saints played a nearly perfect game against Tampa Bay last week and are on a five-game win streak due to finding ways to get production out of every facet of their roster. That factor provides New Orleans with many more paths to victory in this home contest, so the Saints get this one by a notable margin.

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

Early in the year Seattle mastered the art of winning shootout contests, but that historically 50/50 proposition has finally started to even out as the Seahawks have lost two of their last three due to turnovers keeping them from winning high scoring games against Arizona and Buffalo. It may be tough for Seattle to keep that type of scoring pace going against a Rams defense that ranks second in the league in points allowed per game. Los Angeles also sports an underrated offense, as the Rams have racked up 400+ offensive yards in five games and 100+ rushing yards in all but one contest. The Rams ability to excel on both sides of the ball is something Seattle simply cannot do with its atrocious defense, so the Rams are the pick in this one.

Baltimore at New England

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 8

The Ravens seem to be flying under the radar a bit this year, which seems odd given that had they held on to win in that improbable Steelers comeback victory in Week 8, Baltimore would be on a five-game win streak and would be in first place in the AFC North. The Ravens have done this despite throwing for more than 200 net passing yards in only two games this year, but their overpowering rushing attack should post superb numbers against a New England club that has allowed 120+ rushing yards in five of the past six games and given up 84 points in the past three games. Bill Belichick’s creative play calling does give the Patriots a few paths to victory, but the Ravens overwhelming advantage in nearly every other area makes them one of the strongest picks of the week.

Monday, November 16

Minnesota at Chicago

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 7

As it stands right now, the Bears are in second place in the NFC North and the Vikings are in last, yet the reality is that these teams are trending in directions opposite of their current divisional standing. Chicago has lost three straight and four out of its last six in large part because they have scored 17 or fewer points in three of those losses. The Bears haven’t rushed for 100+ yards since Week 3 and will be challenged to do so this week since David Montgomery may miss this contest with a concussion. The Vikings ground game may be the best in the league, as they have racked up 160+ rushing yards in five of the past six games and have posted 448 ground yards in the past two weeks alone. Chicago simply does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with Minnesota in this one, so the Vikings get the selection by a solid margin.