Here are my Week 10 picks with confidence level selections. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 will be available for all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The picks with a 6+ confidence level, a group of selections that have netted a 118-42 record over the past two seasons (including a 35-14 mark this year), will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheatcode to beat the sportsbooks over the last five years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
KC’s pick: Dallas | Confidence level: 4
This game will boil down to Dak Prescott’s effectiveness. The Cowboys offense was playing at a potential record setting pace in the first six weeks of the season, but since Prescott injured his calf near the end of the New England contest, this platoon has slowed badly. Dallas has scored only 36 points over the past two games, has rushed for 78 yards in each of those games, and has now tallied two giveaways in four straight contests. A lot of that had to do with facing the tough Vikings and Broncos defenses, so a matchup against an Atlanta squad could be just what the proverbial doctor ordered. The Falcons have allowed 25+ points to every team they have faced except the Giants, Jets (when they had Zach Wilson under center) and Panthers. Prescott and the Dallas offense should get back up to speed versus this favorable matchup, so the Cowboys earn this selection.
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
KC’s pick: Denver | Confidence level: 1
Sunday edit: This is a toss up game when all things are equal, but the Broncos myriad offensive line injuries are enough to push this pick from the Broncos to the Eagles.
The Eagles fought the idea of leaning on the ground game for many weeks despite it being obvious that they had the making of a superb rushing attack, but head coach Nick Sirianni finally relented, and it has led to Philadelphia being one of only six teams this year to post 175+ rushing yards in two consecutive games. That should have led to two straight wins, but the Eagles horrendous short pass coverage last week more than offset the advantage the ground game should have given this club. Denver has allowed 17 or fewer points in three straight games and is now getting terrific offensive balance with Jerry Jeudy back in the lineup. Both teams play a style that should keep this contest close, so Denver gets the edge due to home field and the abysmal state of the Eagles defense.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
KC’s pick: Green Bay | Confidence level: 2
This game should feature the return of two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, as Russell Wilson is slated to come back following a successful rehab of his injured finger and Aaron Rodgers is likely to be cleared to return after missing last week due to a positive COVID-19 test. The odd part Wilson’s comeback is that might actually lead to a drop-off by the Seahawks defense, as Seattle’s penchant for getting into high scoring games with Wilson under center led the Seahawks to allow 450+ offensive yards in four straight games before Wilson’s injury in the Week 5 contest against the Rams. That potential defensive decline, when combined with the game being in Green Bay, lands this pick in the Packers column.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
KC’s pick: Las Vegas | Confidence level: 1
Over the years, this series tends to go through stretches of being dominated by one team. The Chiefs are that team at this moment, as Kansas City has won 16 out of the past 19 matchups against the Raiders. This contest may not be a point of demarcation for Las Vegas to return to controlling this rivalry, but they may have what it takes on offense, having racked up 400+ offensive yards on six occasions this year, including in the last three straight. That could give the Silver and Black an edge against a Kansas City club that has scored 20 or fewer points in four of the past five games and has 19 giveaways this season. The problem for Las Vegas is the Chiefs defense has stepped its game up of late, as Kansas City has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of the last four games. Add it up and this is about as close of a tossup selection as there is on the board this week, so Las Vegas gets the pick due to home field advantage.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
KC’s pick: Los Angeles | Confidence level: 5
The 49ers offense is getting a lot of grief for the club’s 3-5 record and losses in five of the past six games, but a big part of the problem of late is a rush defense that has given up 487 yards in the past three contests. San Francisco’s offense goes as its ground game goes, and that could be a problem against a Los Angeles rush defense that has allowed fewer than 70 rushing yards in three of the past four contests. The Rams have a lot more firepower in their passing attack, as Cooper Kupp may be the best wide receiver in the NFL right now, so they have more paths to victory and are the selection in this matchup.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
KC’s pick: New England | Confidence level: 4
Both teams have utilized a similar approach to win of late, as they are relying on powerhouse rushing attacks on offense and racking up takeaways on defense. Cleveland has tallied 150+ rushing yards in all but two games this year and had a season high three takeaways against Cincinnati last week. New England started off the year with some offensive struggles, but they have rushed for 120+ yards in five straight games and scored 24+ points in each of those contests. The Patriots defense is also back to Bill Belichick’s ball hawking ways, as they have posted 2+ takeaways in four straight. The deciding factor here is consistency, as the Browns 41-point outburst against the Bengals last week ended a three-game stretch where Cleveland scored 17 or fewer points. Those offensive woes could easily return in this difficult road matchup, so New England is the preferred option here.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
KC’s pick: Tennessee | Confidence level: 2
Anyone who thought that the loss of Derrick Henry would cripple the Titans offense and cause Tennessee’s playoff hopes to collapse got a rude awakening last week when the Titans defeated the Rams by a 28-16 score that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicates. New Orleans pulled off one of the upsets of the year in defeating Tampa Bay despite losing Jameis Winston during that contest, but they head into this matchup with journeyman Trevor Siemian as their quarterback and with a banged-up Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a knee injury. Combine those with the game being in Nashville and this one goes to the Titans.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers
KC’s pick: Los Angeles | Confidence level: 2
This is a tale of two defensive-oriented head coaches whose teams have been losing in large part due to terrible defensive play. The Chargers invite teams to rush against them as part of Brandon Staley’s Cover 2 scheme but giving up 142+ rushing yards in six of the past seven games and 176+ rushing yards in five of those contests cannot be what Staley had in mind. The Vikings are in a similar boat, as they seemed to have their 2020 defensive issues finally resolved, but those woes have returned after Minnesota allowed 919 offensive yards and 54 points over the past two weeks. This matchup may come down to which offense can take better advantage of these weaknesses, so the Chargers get this selection due to their offense having been much more consistent this season.
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 118-42 over the past two seasons (including a 35-14 mark this year), are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
KC’s pick: Baltimore | Confidence level: 6
Baltimore used to be the most run-heavy offense in the league, but this year they actually have more pass attempts than rush attempts this year through eight games. That balanced approach has worked like a champ, as the Ravens have scored 27+ points on five occasions (including three of the past four games) and have racked up 387+ offensive yards seven times. That is not a good omen for a Miami club that has allowed 26+ points six times and has scored 17 or fewer points on six occasions. Add in Tua Tagovailoa’s finger injury and DeVante Parker now being on injured reserve, and it is enough for Baltimore to land this pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
KC’s pick: Indianapolis | Confidence level: 7
Give big time kudos to the Jaguars defense for holding the Bills to only 301 offensive yards and six points while also generating three takeaways last week. The first problem with expecting that sort of turnaround is that last week was a perfect setup for a trap game for Buffalo, as they were between divisional matchups and had to fit in a road contest against a foe they could easily underestimate. The Colts are not going to take their in-division opponent lightly and the game is in Indianapolis, so there won’t be a trap situation here. The Colts are also on an incredible four-game stretch with 30+ points and may have the best running back in the league in Jonathan Taylor, who racked up 200 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns last week against the Jets. Look for Indianapolis to keep the offensive trend going against a Jaguars squad that has allowed 31+ points four times and thus push this pick into the Colts column.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals
KC’s pick: Arizona | Confidence level: 7
We may look back at the end of the year and point to last week’s game between Arizona and San Francisco as the time the world realized the Cardinals were a true Super Bowl contender. Arizona didn’t have its starting quarterback and top two wide receivers coming into the contest and then lost one of its best running backs during the game and yet cruised to a 31-7 mid third quarter lead in that matchup and eventually won by a 31-17 score. It’s still up in the air if Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins will play in this game, but Carolina’s offensive collapse has led to losses in five out of six and will offset the impact Christian McCaffrey brings to this platoon, so take the Cardinals in this battle even if Murray and Hopkins are out for a second consecutive week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay | Confidence level: 8
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Tom Brady do more phenomenal things, but it still is incredible to see the level of consistent excellence Brady is displaying in this offense in 2021. The Buccaneers have scored 24+ points in all but one game, tallied 27+ points in all but two matchups, and have racked up 381+ offensive yards in every contest. Washington got out of the gates quickly this year even after Taylor Heinicke took over for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Football Team’s offense has since faltered, as Washington has scored 13 or fewer points in three straight games. There is no trap game element here for Tampa Bay, as they are coming out of their bye week and don’t face a divisional foe again until December, so the Buccaneers are the easy pick in this one.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh | Confidence level: 6
Dan Campbell had Detroit playing above its talent level for a few weeks, as he got his players so fired up to adopt his proverbial knee biting ways that they nearly upset Baltimore and Minnesota and gave the Rams quite a scare in Week 7. It was going to be impossible to keep up that emotional level in perpetuity and the end came quickly in a 44-6 loss to Philadelphia in Week 8. The good news for the Lions is that they were on a bye in Week 9 and come into this contest well rested, but they are going to face a Steelers club that has ridden powerhouse performances by their defense and Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Najee Harris to four straight wins. Don’t be surprised if Detroit’s renewed energy level keeps this game closer than expected for a time, but also expect Pittsburgh’s significant talent edge to eventually lead to a Steelers victory.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
KC’s pick: Buffalo | Confidence level: 6
As noted above, the Bills were in what shaped up to be the perfect trap game situation last week, as they had a road matchup against an overmatched foe sandwiched between divisional matchups. Buffalo will be looking to set things right against a Jets defense that has allowed 430+ offensive yards in four of their last five games and 530+ offensive yards in two of the past three. New York has a chance at winning this game if they turn the game into a shootout, something that they might be able to do since the Jets won’t have Zach Wilson under center, as they have tallied 64 points and 997 offensive yards in the two games that Wilson has missed. It won’t be easy to do that, however, since Buffalo has given up more than 300 offensive yards on only two occasions, so take the Bills in this matchup.
