Hello again! Here are my Wild Card round picks.

Before diving into those, here’s a quick review of my 2024 regular season record. Those picks went 195-77 this year. That’s a 71.7 percent win rate that ranked 25^th among the 180 selectors tracked by NFL Pickwatch this season.

The playoff opener of the Chargers at Texans will be available to all readers. The remaining picks will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston

If there was any question about whether or not J.K. Dobbins is at full speed following his Week 17 return from injury, that question was answered over the past two weeks when Dobbins tallied a total of 37 carries and four receptions. This shows Jim Harbaugh knows Dobbins is ready to reinstitute the brand of power football that has won Harbaugh titles at every level.

That’s not good news for a Houston team that does not fare well when facing power football. The Texans have allowed 100+ rushing yards on ten occasions this season and are 4-6 in those games. This trend has gotten worse as the season progressed, with Houston losing the last five games it gave up 100 or more rushing yards. The Texans also are only two weeks away from allowing a season high 251 rush yards against Baltimore. That doesn’t bode well for Houston to be able to deal with Dobbins at a bell cow work rate, so this is a Chargers pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 5

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

The Steelers used to dominate this series, having won eight of the last nine prior to the Week 16 matchup between these teams. Baltimore ran for 220 yards in that game on the way to posting a 34-17 victory that may have reset the dynamic between these clubs.

What makes matters even worse for Pittsburgh is that the Steelers secondary has been playing at a poor level of late. That changed some during the Week 18 game against Cincinnati, but this is still a group that can and will be challenged by the Ravens passing game.

A caveat to this is Zay Flowers was injured in last week’s win over Cleveland and may not be able to play in this game. That will even the playing field for the Steelers to an extent, but Pittsburgh is still a team in a slump and the Ravens have been dominant for a month now, so this is a Baltimore selection.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 6

Denver at Buffalo

It took Denver until Week 18 to qualify for the postseason, but don’t underestimate Sean Payton’s club. The Broncos have only one overwhelming loss on their 2024 resumé, that being the 41-10 loss at Baltimore in Week 9. Denver nearly won at Kansas City, went toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Chargers (twice in LA’s case), dominated Tampa Bay 26-7 and handled their business like true professionals in last week’s 38-0 destruction of Kansas City’s backups. That shows why the Broncos shouldn’t be considered a nine-point underdog in this matchup.

Having noted this, the Bills have the talents of Josh Allen. He is having a season for the ages and has helped bring Buffalo’s offense to another level. That led to the Bills posting 30+ points in eight straight games at one point of this season. Buffalo’s defense is also very good at forcing turnovers. Add that to this being held in Buffalo, which is a really difficult place to play, and it leads to a close Bills victory.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 4

Green Bay at Philadelphia

The Eagles Week 18 win over the Giants may have looked useless on paper given that Philadelphia had already clinched the No. 2 seed, but what it actually showed is the Eagles finding another way to win. That used to be the knock on this team, that Philadelphia had limited ways to win and would be stuck if the primary way was taken away, but this year the Eagles have won running the ball, passing the ball, with great defense, key special teams play and, with the Giants game, that they can win with backups.

Green Bay has generated its share of victories this year, but many of those wins were versus overmatched teams. The Packers have struggled when facing strong teams (they are 0-5 versus playoff qualifiers). One of those losses was the Week 17 matchup against the Vikings, but the Week 18 loss against Chicago was the key, as that is a rivalry game against a weak foe that Green Bay did not want to lose. That they did shows the Packers are headed into the postseason on a down note, and a trip to face Philadelphia is not a solution to that problem.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 6

Washington at Tampa Bay

This game should be fun. Tampa Bay’s offense went through a bit of a lull after Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were hurt in the Week 7 Monday night game against Baltimore, but following the Week 11 bye this platoon has been getting better by the week. The Buccaneers have posted 24+ points in every game since then and tallied a total of 223 points in the past seven contests. What makes this even more impressive is Tampa Bay has developed an incredible ground game that has generated 1,283 yards in that aforementioned seven-game stretch.

Washington aims to counter this with Jayden Daniels. The rookie phenom had his own injury woes following a rib ailment suffered in Week 8 against Chicago, but the Commanders have still posted 26 or more points in six of the eight meaningful games that followed that matchup. Washington has also put up 100+ rushing yards in six straight games, so the Commanders have a dual threat offense as well.

The key here will be which team deals better with a scoreboard shootout scenario (defined as when both teams score 24+ points in a game). Washington is 3-2 in shootouts this year, while Tampa Bay is 1-5. That latter record is due largely to the Buccaneers having an inconsistent defense that has been terrible at times this year. Washington’s defense has been just a bit more consistent, so they get this pick, but by a small margin given that this game is being played in Tampa Bay.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 2

Minnesota vs Los Angeles Rams (at Glendale, AZ)

This is a tough game to figure out. On the one hand is a Minnesota offense that has as many playmakers as any team in the NFL. Prior to the loss at Detroit, the Vikings had tallied 23 or more points in seven straight games, scoring 27 or more in five of those matchups. They have done this while not turning the ball over very often, as Minnesota has only two giveaways in its last five games.

The Vikings can also count on an inventive defensive gameplan from Brian Flores. Those gameplans are a big part of why Minnesota has registered at least one takeaway in every game this year, including 11 in the last six games.

The Rams have plenty of offensive playmakers on paper, but the reality here is that Cooper Kupp had only four catches in the last three games he played in. Los Angeles scored only 44 points in those games and never tallied more than 19 points, so this is a team that is aiming to win a slugfest rather than a shootout.

This shows up in Los Angeles having an 8-0 record when allowing 22 or fewer points. The Rams allowed 15 or fewer in five of those games, but Minnesota has scored 23 or more points in all but four games this year. That track record suggests that the Vikings will be able to keep this contest out of the slugfest category and that makes them a percentage play in this one.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 4