Here are my Week 9 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 49-31 this year and are 270-171-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 29-13 this year and have netted a 294-120-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Houston at New York Jets
Houston is an underdog in this matchup despite having a 6-2 record versus the Jets’ 2-6 mark. A main reason for that is the Texans offense hasn’t been anywhere near as productive of late as it was earlier this year. A prime secondary reason related to that is Stefon Diggs was just lost for the season with an injury. The plus news for Houston is that its defense has been very good at creating takeaways, with nine in the past three weeks.
That will dovetail well with a Jets offense that had seven giveaways in Weeks 4-7. New York also hasn’t posted more than 22 points in a game since Week 3. The Jets defense has also shown some coverage weaknesses throughout the year and will be missing both of its starting safeties. Those limitations offset the Texans issues and make Houston the pick here.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 4
Dallas at Atlanta
It’s tough to overstate how bad the Dallas defense has played at times this year. Over the past two weeks, the Cowboys have allowed 417 rushing yards. If that insanely high number isn’t enough, consider that Dallas also gave up 464 rushing yards in Weeks 2-3. The Cowboys have tallied only five takeaways all season long and two of those occurred in Week 1.
That’s not a good place to be when facing an Atlanta squad that has scored 31 or more points in three of the past four games. The Falcons also do a good job of protecting the ball, having one or zero giveaways in all but two games this year. Combine that with a defense that has five takeaways in the past three games and this contest being in Atlanta and this is a Falcons selection.
KC’s pick: Atlanta
Confidence level: 4
Denver at Baltimore
The Broncos are a nearly double-digit point underdog in this contest despite having won five of their past six games. Denver’s success comes from many factors, including Bo Nix’s dual threat skills that just resulted in his posting a season high 284 passing yards and three touchdowns last week. That could be a boon for the Broncos in a potential scoreboard shootout, as the Ravens secondary has multiple subpar coverage metrics.
Baltimore will have no problems keeping up in a high scoring game, as the Ravens are either the best or second-best offense in the league (depending on where one rates Detroit). From a pick perspective, it certainly is better to rely on Lamar Jackson, a two-time NFL MVP who is currently leading the 2024 NFL MVP odds, than a rookie having his first big success. Combine that with this game being in Baltimore and this one goes to the Ravens.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 3
Miami at Buffalo
Buffalo is having the same level of success it’s had in the past few years, but this season feels different. Part of it is due to a Buffalo defense that has shown it can impose its will on another team. This showed up last week when the Bills allowed only 32 rushing yards and 233 total net offensive yards to very talented Seattle offense and did that in a cross-country trip. Another part is that Josh Allen has ditched his gunslinger ways, which is why Buffalo has only three giveaways on the entire season.
Miami’s offense looked a lot better last week with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. That isn’t a backhanded compliment, as the Dolphins offense was abysmal when Tagovailoa was out, but it isn’t a full endorsement either, as Miami still couldn’t get Tyreek Hill into gear. Moving up to the next level won’t be easy to do versus that Bills defense, especially since the game is in Buffalo and Miami hasn’t won there since 2016, so this is a Bills pick.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 4
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland
Jameis Winston is a better fit for the Browns offense than Deshaun Watson was. Winston’s vertical pass numbers are much better, due in part to Watson’s hesitance to make a mistake on downfield throws, and he’s much more comfortable operating a pocket pass offense. That’s why Cleveland scored more than 18 points for the first time this season last week and why the Browns will be able to put up a solid point total versus most teams.
The Chargers defense will be one of the tougher scoring assignments for Watson and company. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this year and has given up 17 or fewer in all but one game. The Chargers pass coverage metrics are strong, and this defense does a solid job of ballhawking. That should lead to picks versus the risk-taking Winston, and since the Los Angeles passing game is developing well, this is a Chargers pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 4
New England at Tennessee
This is a tough game to pick. On the one hand, the Patriots offense has seen a minor resurgence with Drake Maye under center. Maye threw for 519 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 6-7 and New England hasn’t turned the ball over in two straight games.
That could result in a solid point total versus a Titans team that has allowed 86 points over the past two weeks combined. The flip side of this is a Tennessee offense that can move the ball on the ground, having posted 142 or more rushing yards in three of the past four games. Add it up and it looks like a stoppable force versus a moveable object, so this pick splits the difference and takes the home team.
KC’s pick: Tennessee
Confidence level: 1
Chicago at Arizona
After three wins in the past four games and earning a share of first place in the NFC West, Arizona is finally receiving the respect it deserves. This is a highly motivated, well-coached team that has shown it can win scoreboard shootouts and defensive slugfests.
Chicago is tougher to figure out. A loss like last week’s embarrassing performance on the Hail Maryland can have a lasting effect, especially when the next game is a cross-country trip versus a team like the Cardinals. It’s still likely to be a toss-up game, but those factors and home field land this one in Arizona’s column.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 2
Detroit at Green Bay
Midseason games don’t get any bigger than this, as this contest could eventually decide the winner of the NFC North.
Detroit may have the best offense in the NFL today. The Lions have posted 116+ rushing yards in every game this year and have racked up 492 rushing yards in the past three games alone. That offensive octane could be very important for this contest, as Green Bay is one of the few teams that can potentially go toe-to-toe with the Lions in a shootout.
That potentially qualifier is the key. Green Bay has been very consistent in scoring this year, posting 24+ points in six straight games, but the Packers haven’t scored more than 30 points all year. Jordan Love also has a penchant for turning the ball over, which is not a good trend versus a Lions defense that has ten takeaways in the past three games.
The Packers defense is equally good at taking the ball away, but Detroit has only five giveaways all year and only one in the past three games. That should give the Lions the turnover edge and since Detroit has a higher scoring ceiling, this one goes to the Lions.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 2
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
The Rams offense took a huge forward step last week after the return of Cooper Kupp to the lineup. The net result was 279 net passing yards and a season high 30 points for Los Angeles. Assuming Puka Nacua is available for this game (which is up in the air as of this writing), the Rams should be able to equal or exceed that total versus an inconsistent Seattle secondary.
The Seahawks rush defense isn’t inconsistent — it’s just consistently bad, allowing 722 yards over the past four games. This means Seattle won’t be able to pay sole attention to pass defense, as Kyren Williams is capable of putting up 125 rush yards in this game. The Seahawks also have a wide receiver injury issue with D.K. Metcalf, who may be out for this contest. The Rams have proven they can win at Seattle, having been victorious in three of the past four games there, and this should be another successful journey for Los Angeles.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 4
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 24-11 this year and have gone 285-118-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New Orleans at Carolina
The Saints offense should take a big forward step if Derek Carr returns for this game as expected. New Orleans wasn’t able to get anything done without him outside of the Week 6 matchup against the appallingly bad Buccaneers defense. With Carr, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara against the well below average Carolina defense, a solid scoreboard total should be in order.
The Panthers have the option of going with Andy Dalton but have instead decided to stick with Bryce Young at quarterback. It really may not make that much of a difference, as Carolina just traded away its best receiver and wasn’t getting that much done with Dalton under center before his injury. Combine that with the Panthers penchant for giveaways (nine in the past four weeks) and this is a New Orleans pick.
KC’s pick: New Orleans
Confidence level: 6
Washington at New York Giants
Signature moments are few and far between in NFL history. The Hail Maryland that won last week’s game against Chicago qualifies as one of these. It’s the type of thing that can convince an already very good team that it might be a team of destiny. It also creates momentum that carries over for many games.
New York has no such momentum. The Giants defense has been pummeled for 426 rushing yards the past two weeks. New York may not have Tyrone Tracy Jr., the running back who was helping turbocharge the Giants ground game. Add that to defensive injuries and dismal pass coverage metrics, and this should be a dominant win for the Commanders.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 7
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
It took the Week 5 bye for Philadelphia to get its bearings on the 2024 season. Now that they have them, this is one of the best teams in the league. The Eagles have rushed for 546 yards during their three-game win streak, have zero giveaways in that span and just held a talented Bengals squad to only 17 points. Making that performance even more impressive is Philadelphia’s defense has greatly improved its pass rush and has strong coverage metrics across the board.
The Jaguars are a damaged team. Their receiving corps is banged-up and they just allowed Green Bay to rack 422 yards and move the ball with a backup quarterback after Jordan Love had to leave the game due to injury. Jacksonville is also only a couple of weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to Chicago that may have put Doug Pederson’s job in jeopardy. Combine that with the Eagles front office pushing the team to win this game big to show up their former coach and this could be a blowout.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 8
Las Vegas at Cincinnati
The Bengals passing game has been stuck in neutral for the past three weeks. Some of that is due to injury, but when a team has Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase (and in some weeks Tee Higgins), that club shouldn’t average fewer than 200 net passing yards versus any defense. Those issues compound the fact that in most weeks Cincinnati can’t run the ball, something evidenced by gaining only 117 rushing yards in the past two weeks combined.
The Raiders passing offense isn’t any better right now and the ceiling provided by Gardner Minshew II, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers isn’t anywhere near as high as the Bengals aerial attack. That’s one tiebreaker and when it is added to the recent turnover disparity (11 for Las Vegas in the last four weeks versus four for Cincinnati) and this game being in the Queen City and this goes to the Bengals.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 6
Indianapolis at Minnesota
Anthony Richardson’s taking a play off might have been the best thing to happen to the Colts offense. Joe Flacco has done much more with the Indianapolis passing game and the Colts already have plenty of rushing ability in Jonathan Taylor. The move to Flacco sets the reasonable Indianapolis scoring ceiling 7-10 points higher than it would have been under Richardson, and that gives the Colts a fighting chance versus a strong Vikings offense.
Minnesota’s offensive prowess did come into question last week when the Vikings posted a season low 20 points versus the Rams, but one subpar showing doesn’t equal a trend. The Colts are also 1-3 when allowing 23 or more points, whereas Minnesota is 5-1 when scoring 23 or more points. Since the Vikings are likely to hit that 23-point mark, this one goes to Minnesota.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 6
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
There is no way to sugar coat this. The Buccaneers pass defense is beyond atrocious. Per Stathead, over the past four weeks every Tampa Bay cornerback or safety has a passer rating allowed of 92.2 or higher. Five players have a yards per target level of 10 or higher (which is a terrible rate) and all but two players have a completion rate allowed of 66.7 percent or higher.
Andy Reid has been waiting for this type of matchup, as he likes nothing more than calling passing plays. This will break Patrick Mahomes out of his long streak of scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points and will generate a point total that the limited Tampa Bay aerial attack just cannot keep up with.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 8