Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 6. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 31-21 this year and are 252-161-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 15-11 this year and have netted a 280-118-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
San Francisco at Seattle
San Francisco got hit with an upset last week versus an Arizona team that should never be taken lightly. The 49ers seemed to do that in part due to looking ahead to this matchup, but the plus from that is that Brandon Aiyuk got back up to full speed by racking up eight catches for 147 yards. Combine that with George Kittle being back to his elite form (eight catches for 64 yards) and the potential upside of Deebo Samuel getting up to speed and the 49ers can win this likely scoreboard shootout.
Seattle was in a similar boat, as the Seahawks didn’t take the Giants as seriously as they should have and ended up losing a winnable home game. Mike Macdonald said before the year that this would be a run-centric team, but the Seahawks have thrown for 270 or more yards almost as much as they have rushed for 100 yards.
This game is likely to turn on which team wins the turnover battle. Both teams have given the ball away far too often, but the 49ers defense has notched at least one takeaway in all but one game this year and has eight on the season. Seattle has generated only one takeaway in the past four games. Those trends point towards the 49ers winning this stat battle and thus winning this game.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 4
Jacksonville at Chicago (game in London)
Jacksonville was fired up to end Trevor Lawrence’s nine-game losing streak on his birthday last week, yet the reality is that game really doesn’t serve well as a future barometer. The Colts lost nine straight at Jacksonville prior to that matchup and since that type of jinx can hit a team’s psyche, the Jaguars will need to show that they can win when the other team doesn’t have the proverbial hex.
By contrast, Chicago can hang its hat on Caleb Williams showing tremendous improvement, D’Andre Swift playing quite well and a having a top 10 defense. Those things tend to travel well, so take the Bears here.
KC’s pick: Chicago
Confidence level: 4
Washington at Baltimore
It’s tough to overstate just how well Jayden Daniels is playing. With Malik Nabers’ injury, it looks like Daniels almost has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award wrapped up and he’s now considered one of the top NFL MVP candidates. That is the kind of thing that can keep Washington in this contest, but the Commanders will be without Brian Robinson Jr. and have a defense that, while playing better of late, still can’t be relied upon.
Baltimore can offset Daniels with Lamar Jackson, who is making a stronger case every week for another NFL MVP award. Derrick Henry is also playing at an incredible level and thus can protect a Ravens defense that has been hit or miss this year. Add those two elements to this being a home game for Baltimore and this is a Ravens selection.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 5
Indianapolis at Tennessee
The Colts just can’t catch a break health-wise, as even though Anthony Richardson is returning from injury, he won’t share the backfield with Jonathan Taylor, who is out this week due to injury. Richardson still gives this offense plenty of big-play ability, though, and if he does have some missteps, Indianapolis has the best relief pitcher in the NFL in Joe Flacco.
The Titans don’t have a quality starting or backup quarterback, but they do have Tony Pollard and should be able to give him plenty of carries following a bye week. That will work to some extent versus a shaky Colts run defense. Combine that a powerful Titans defense and this will be a very close game that goes to the Titans due to home field.
KC’s pick: Tennessee
Confidence level: 1
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver
The Chargers go as their run game goes. That worked like a champ in Weeks 1-2 when Los Angeles ran for 395 yards, but over their past two games the Chargers gained only 116 yards on the ground. Los Angeles is also dealing with an injury to Justin Herbert that has made him a middling passer.
Those are not good trend when headed into a road game against a Denver defense that might be the best in the league right now. The Broncos are also getting better play from Bo Nix and have rushed for 371 yards over the past three weeks. That trends Denver in a much better direction than Los Angeles, so take the Broncos in a close game.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 2
Pittsburgh at Las Vegas
Pittsburgh started the year on a defensive roll, as the Steelers allowed only 26 points in the first three weeks. That has changed over the past two games, as Pittsburgh has given up 47 points and more than 800 offensive yards.
That’s why this game looks like perfect timing for the Steelers. Las Vegas has all manner of offensive problems, and that’s why the Silver and Black is now turning to Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders still won’t have Davante Adams, though, and Pittsburgh is getting more and more production out of Justin Fields. It’s enough of an edge to slant this one in the Steelers direction.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 3
Cincinnati at New York Giants
The Bengals defense might be the worst in the NFL right now. Defensive line injuries have made Cincinnati a sieve versus the rush, and their coverage metrics are dismal. Joe Burrow is built to win shootout games, but these tend to be 50/50 propositions even for the best offenses, hence the Bengals 1-4 record.
The Giants are starting to hit their stride offensively, as Wan’Dale Robinson is filling in quite well as the No. 1 receiver in Malik Nabers’ absence. The problem for New York is that it has allowed 20+ points in all but one game this year, so this club is also prone to getting into high scoring matchups. If Nabers were playing, this might go the Giants, but with Nabers out and Ja’Marr Chase playing at an elite level, this is a Bengals pick.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 3
Buffalo at New York Jets
Firing a head coach when a team is headed into a matchup for first place in the division is one of many instances of dysfunction in the Jets organization. For example, last week Aaron Rodgers sent 23 targets in Garrett Williams' direction. Don’t think for a moment that was due to coverage, as teams always prioritize getting him covered. That was more of Rodgers either playing favorites (which he did for years in Green Bay) or trying to send a message to someone in that organization.
The reason for pointing this out is that the Jets lack of synchronicity isn’t about to end just because Robert Saleh is getting paid to not coach this team. Buffalo has issues of its own, but right now the Bills don’t have anywhere the problems that New York does. That lands this pick in Buffalo’s column.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 4
Detroit at Dallas
Detroit knows exactly what kind of team it wants to be. The Lions want to run the ball, which they do quite well with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and they want to stop the run, which they have done by holding three foes to under 100 yards on the ground. They also want to be able hit big plays when they do throw it, which they do with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
Dallas isn’t in quite the same boat. The Cowboys would like to run the ball but can’t do so with Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott as the lead rushers. They can hit big plays through the air, but CeeDee Lamb is having a subpar season by his standards and there aren’t any strong targets beyond him. The Cowboys defense also just took a big hit with Micah Parsons being out. When in doubt, take the team that knows what it wants to be versus the one that doesn’t.
KC’s pick: Detroit
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 280-118-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Arizona at Green Bay
The Cardinals have been fantastic at rushing the ball this year. Arizona has gained 350 rush yards over the past two weeks and had 231 rush yards against the Rams in Week 2. This is a combination of James Conner and Kyler Murray and should work well against a Packers defense that has allowed 120+ rushing yards on four occasions.
The issue for the Cardinals is that Green Bay is every bit as adept at running the ball, but also has Jordan Love and arguably the deepest talent pool at wide receiver in the NFL. Combine that with the Packers being much better at generating takeaways (they have a 14 to 7 advantage over Arizona here) and the game being at Lambeau, and this goes to Green Bay.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 6
Houston at New England
It says a lot for Houston that even though they lost Nico Collins to injury, this is still one of the most dangerous passing games in the league. The Texans also get Joe Mixon back this week after they lost him due in part to overuse in Week 1 (they have enough quality running back depth that they didn’t need to rush his 30 times in that contest). Houston will be able to lean on Mixon and company quite often today as well given that the Patriots have allowed 474 rushing yards over the past three games.
New England doesn’t have much to counter this. They just changed quarterbacks, won’t have Rhamondre Stevenson and might have the weakest set of pass catchers in the NFL. Give this one to the Texans.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 8
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The amazing part of the Buccaneers offensive success this year is that it has been done in spite of leaning on Baker Mayfield’s downfield aerial prowess. Tampa Bay has gone with a more conservative approach and that has led to the Buccaneers posting 173 or fewer yards on three occasions this year.
That will change this week for a variety of reasons. Tops among these is Rachaad White is injured, and Tampa Bay doesn’t want to push Bucky Irving to carry too much of the workload. The Buccaneers will also want to go into track meet mode because the Saints are having to start rookie Spencer Rattler due to the Derek Carr injury. Mayfield should have success in this area and that will get things rolling quickly in Tampa Bay’s direction.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 7
Cleveland at Philadelphia
The bye week occurred at the perfect time for Philadelphia. They lost in Week 4 due in part to not having A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in the starting lineup, but that won’t be the case this week, as both Brown and Smith are slated to play. The rest should also give the Eagles a psychological reboot, as the early season struggles were starting to get into this team’s collective mind.
The Browns struggles are absolutely impacting them, as Cleveland is losing games both due to being outplayed by more talented teams and due to effort level. It’s clear that something isn’t right with this squad, and a road trip to face a rested Philadelphia team and a fired-up Eagles crowd isn’t the recipe to correct that downward trend.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 8
Atlanta at Carolina
Atlanta is going against the grain of the rest of the league. The Falcons have won three of their last four games despite gaining 88 or fewer rushing yards and allowing 128+ rushing yards in those contests. They are letting Kirk Cousins turn games into track meets and it worked against New Orleans in Week 4 and Tampa Bay in Week 5.
The big boost that Andy Dalton gave the Panthers offense when he took over in Week 3 is that Carolina could finally get its ground game going. That has resulted in the Panthers gaining 306 rushing yards in that trio of contests, but since Atlanta has already shown it can win even when outrushed, the Falcons should take this one.
KC’s pick: Atlanta
Confidence level: 6