Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 4. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 17-12 this year and are 238-154-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 10-9 this year and have netted a 275-116-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Dallas at New York Giants

The Cowboys defense was supposed to be this team’s strong suit and yet that wasn’t the case the past two weeks, as Dallas allowed New Orleans and Baltimore to rack up a total of 72 points. The Cowboys will also have to deal with Malik Nabers this week, and Nabers has already shown that he can be a top five wide receiver as soon as this year.

That all portends well for the Giants, but that’s before looking at the myriad issues this team faces. New York has some of the worst pass pressure rate allowed figures in 2024, has subpar metrics on vertical passes, has a target magnet in Deonte Banks (who has allowed three passing touchdowns this year, per Pro Football Reference), and has special teams issues. New York may be able to keep this game closer than the point spread (Dallas -6) indicates, but the Cowboys have the talent edge and thus get this pick.

KC’s pick: Dallas

Confidence level: 4

New Orleans at Atlanta

New Orleans was arguably the best team in the league after two weeks, but last week’s home loss to the Eagles illustrated some weaknesses on this club. The Saints have also overused Alvin Kamara, who is now dealing with hip and rib injuries after New Orleans gave him 29 scrimmage plays versus Philadelphia.

The Falcons are playing much better than their record indicates, as they would be 2-1 if not for a terrible no-call last week. Atlanta’s offense is also capable of generating more big plays, and they should be able to get Kyle Pitts much more involved this week versus a Saints secondary that has been awful at covering tight ends. Combine that with the home field advantage and it is enough to land this in the Falcons column.

KC’s pick: Atlanta

Confidence level: 2

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago

Caleb Williams finally had a breakout passing performance by posting 363 yards and two touchdowns against an inconsistent Colts secondary last week. That total was tallied without Keenan Allen, who may be able to return this week from a heel injury and could help offset the potential loss of Rome Odunze, who has been limited with a hip injury.

The Rams have been impacted by injuries more than any team in the league, and that has very impactful on the Los Angeles secondary. This group has four players on injured reserve and that has left the Rams with five rookies in its secondary depth chart. That will help move this game into shootout mode and since the Bears defense is better suited to hold up in that mode, the Bears are the pick.

KC’s pick: Chicago

Confidence level: 3

Minnesota at Green Bay

The Packers didn’t start this season thinking they would need to win games via the ground, but that’s exactly what they have been doing in the absence of Jordan Love. Green Bay generated 449 yards on the ground in two games without Love, and that was following a 163-yard rushing performance against the Eagles in Week 1.

This shows how great Matt LaFleur is at putting together game plans, but this week he gets a really tough test against a Brian Flores defense that just held the 49ers and Texans’ offenses to a total of 36 points. That clash of the geniuses may end in a draw, so this will come down to an impact Vikings offense versus a Green Bay defense. That platoon looked great in Weeks 2-3 versus subpar offenses but not so good when facing a powerful Eagles offense in Week 1, so Minnesota is the selection.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 3

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis

The Steelers have time traveled back to the 1970s and it’s working like a charm. Pittsburgh has scored only 51 points in three games and yet is 2-0 due to not allowing more than 10 points in any game. The Steelers defense is shutting down opponents in the air and on the ground and has five takeaways.

The Colts are going old school in a sense with their ground attack, as Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson have led Indianapolis to 290 rushing yards over the past two weeks. The issue is the Colts rush defense can’t hold up its end of the bargain, as Indianapolis allowed 474 rushing yards in the first two weeks. Add that to the Colts pass coverage issues (332 net passing yards allowed to Chicago) and Pittsburgh gets the selection due to having many more paths to victory.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 4

Denver at New York Jets

The Broncos posted an impressive road win last week that landed in the upset category, but it’s worth noting that Denver has posted its share of strong metrics this season. They have been superb versus long passes, have five cornerbacks and safeties with a yards per target rate of 6.5 or lower and have terrific pass rush statistics.

Those will all help keep this game fairly close, but the home run ability of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson is something Denver cannot match. The Jets also have a secondary capable of shutting down the Broncos passing attack, and Aaron Rodgers has seemed more comfortable in this offense with every passing week, so New York lands this pick.

KC’s pick: New York

Confidence level: 3

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

The Eagles have the potential to go into this game without A.J. Brown (who is all but certain to miss this game with a hamstring injury) and DeVonta Smith (who will have to clear the concussion protocol in time in order to play). Not having those two is a huge impediment, but Philadelphia has the option to go with a very run-heavy system with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is perfectly capable of putting together an inventive game plan that utilizes both Barkley’s all-around rushing talents and Hurts’ ability to run zone read plays and give the Eagles offense a chance to post 24+ points.

The Buccaneers should take the opposite route, as Baker Mayfield was one of the best vertical passers last year and still has Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to stretch the field. The potential problem here is that Evans has been mediocre this season and that is part of why Mayfield hasn’t thrown downfield passes nearly as much. This game may change that pace, but since the Eagles already shut down a strong passing attack last week, they have just a bit more elements pointing towards a win.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 2

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers

Patrick Mahomes is no longer posting elite numbers that make fantasy managers happy. That is making Kansas City use different strategies to win games, and those methods tend to have smaller margins for error. That goes double when the ground game strategy relies upon the production of backup running back Carson Steele, who doesn’t have the breakaway ability that Isiah Pacheco gave this offense.

That close to the vest approach is exactly what the Chargers would like Kansas City to do given that Justin Herbert is battling an ankle injury and is playing behind a dinged up offensive line. That may keep this game close, but it also makes the tiebreaker in this pick Mahomes versus an injured Herbert, and that one easily goes to the Chiefs.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 3

Cleveland at Las Vegas

It was rather odd last year that the Raiders weren’t in a bigger hurry to give Antonio Pierce the head coaching job, as he seemed to imbue the Las Vegas players with a ton of energy. We may now be seeing why that was the case, as the Raiders were listless in their Week 1 matchup against the Chiefs and played so poorly against Carolina in Week 3 that Pierce publicly noted that some players were making business decisions during the game, which is shorthand for sporadic effort (to put it nicely). That may indicate Pierce has a way to go to get this squad headed in the right direction.

Cleveland’s had some issues of its own, but one would be hard pressed to say that Kevin Stefanski’s players are in business decision mode. The Browns also have the type of attack that can go after the weak Las Vegas run defense, so Cleveland is the preferred option here.

KC’s pick: Cleveland

Confidence level: 4

Washington at Arizona

The Cardinals are one of the best coached teams in the league, and it is why Arizona nearly pulled off upsets against Buffalo and Detroit and destroyed an injury-wracked Rams squad. This club can be even better if they can find ways to send Marvin Harrison Jr. even more long pass attempts, as he has been hit-or-miss in that area this year.

Washington didn’t seem to need any help on any type of pass in the Monday night game against Cincinnati, as Jayden Daniels set an NFL rookie record for completion percentage in a game. It’s the third straight time he’s completed 70+ percent of his throws and he’s also contributed 171 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. That’s more than enough to keep the Commanders in this game, but the Cardinals still have a slight overall talent edge and are at home, so this one goes to Arizona.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 3

Buffalo at Baltimore

The Bills proverbially brought back memories of the Providence Steamrollers (who won the NFL title in 1928) when they steam rolled Jacksonville on Monday night. That was the capper of a three-game season opening stretch when Buffalo played better every week, and it wasn’t just a matter of Josh Allen repeatedly making an MVP case. The Bills defense lost a ton of talent this offseason, yet this year’s platoon may be outplaying last year’s.

The Ravens have been playing better than their record indicates, and Derrick Henry is starting to return to his King Henry form, but Baltimore also has plenty of pass coverage issues. All but one Ravens defender with at least one target has allowed a passer rating of 88.7 or higher, and four of those defenders have allowed a 100+ mark in that category.

It will be tough for any team to win against the Bills if they have a notable weakness, and this certainly qualifies, so Buffalo is the selection.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 3

Tennessee at Miami

There may be more than a few college teams that have better starting quarterbacks than the Titans and Dolphins will bring into this matchup. Will Levis has posted two or more giveaways in each of Tennessee’s first three games, and some of these have been downright inexcusable.

Miami is even worse shape, as there is a good chance that Tyler Huntley, who has been on the Dolphins roster for less than two weeks, will be the starting quarterback. As creative as Mike McDaniel is, it’s just not a good percentage play to rely on a team playing what amounts to a fourth string quarterback. Combine that with Miami’s rush defense woes and this one goes to the Titans.

KC’s pick: Tennessee

Confidence level: 3

Seattle at Detroit

Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald keeps showing that even though he is a true believer in running the damn ball, he won’t let that mindset get in the way of the best path to victory. This is why Geno Smith has thrown for 616 yards over the past two games and it will also be key to the Seattle game plan this week versus a Detroit secondary that is still a weakness despite offseason personnel additions.

The Lions can go into shootout mode to counter this, as Detroit has plenty of offensive weaponry, but Jameson Williams looks like he may already be hitting an early season wall and Sam LaPorta’s ankle injury has hindered his 2024 numbers.

That gives Seattle paths to victory, yet it is tough to give too much credence to the Seahawks early season success since it occurred against some really bad teams. The Lions will be the Seahawks first true test, and if that leads to a lower level of play from Seattle (as is likely), Detroit should be able to claim a close victory.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 3

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 275-116-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Cincinnati at Carolina

Give Dave Canales a ton of credit, as he realized that Bryce Young’s terrible level of play was causing the entire team to lose faith in the organization. The change to Andy Dalton has resolved that and the Panthers are finally playing to their talent level. Tops on the improvement list might be Chuba Hubbard, who racked up 169 scrimmage yards against Las Vegas last week.

The issue for the Panthers is their overall talent level is still not very strong. Cincinnati has its share of personnel issues, including a banged up defensive line that Washington targeted with frequency on Monday night, but the Bengals also have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. That combination should hit for multiple big plays against Carolina cornerback Mike Jackson and that ought to be enough for a Cincinnati victory.

KC’s pick: Cincinnati

Confidence level: 6

Jacksonville at Houston

These teams both had disappointing losses last week. Houston’s loss occurred versus a Minnesota defense that had just frustrated the 49ers in the prior week, so that defeat may so more about how good Brian Flores is at putting together game plans than it does about the Texans regressing.

That does not look to be the case with Jacksonville, as the Jaguars completely fell apart in their Monday night loss at Buffalo. That’s the kind of loss that can resonate over time, especially with a tough divisional road matchup as the next game up. The prediction here is that the Texans will be fired up to end a two-game home losing streak to the Jaguars, and Jacksonville will not match that intensity, thus leading to a Houston win.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 6

New England at San Francisco

It says a lot about Kyle Shanahan that when his offense lost Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to injury, he didn’t go with a conservative approach. Instead, Shanahan decided to be just as aggressive to go after the Rams injury-depleted secondary and that resulted in Jauan Jennings having an incredible day. That means whether or not Kittle returns (and it is trending in that direction), Shanahan is going to operate his offense with no play calling limitations.

The Patriots offensive approach has been to give Rhamondre Stevenson carries early and often and see how far that takes them. It led to a win versus Cincinnati and nearly led to a win against Seattle, but then fell well short of success against the Jets. That latter result is the likely outcome here as well, as Stevenson just doesn’t have enough firepower to offset the Shanahan system.

KC’s pick: San Francisco

Confidence level: 8