Here are my Week 17 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 101-50 this year and 322-190-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 19-1 in Weeks 13-16, 70-19 this year and have netted a 335-126-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

The Steelers were winning for a while with a strong defense this year. That has faltered of late. Over the past two weeks, Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points, 819 net offensive yards and 351 rushing yards. To be fair, this was versus Philadelphia and Baltimore, two of the best offenses in the league, but those are unacceptable numbers no matter the foes.

Kansas City doesn’t have the powerhouse offense it had in recent years, but the ground game is starting to come together, as evidenced by the Chiefs racking up 256 rushing yards. Kansas City’s defense is also getting back to its impact ways with eight takeaways over the past two weeks. This is a winning formula when a team doesn’t turn the ball over, which the Chiefs have not done in the past five games. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over in eight straight games, so the Steelers will probably lose that stat battle and end up on the wrong side of this score.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 3

Baltimore at Houston

The Week 14 bye was perfect timing for the Ravens. In the two weeks following that down time, Baltimore has scored 69 points, tallied 863 offensive yards (including 390 on the ground), allowed only 31 points and generated three takeaways. That performance helped this club go from losing three of the previous six games to posting two dominant wins and reestablished Baltimore as a potential winner of both the AFC North and AFC Championship.

Houston did win its first game following its Week 14 bye with a 20-12 victory over Miami, but last week’s 27-19 loss to Kansas City showed the Texans may not be ready for prime time. Houston also doesn’t deal with bully ball well and just lost impact wideout Tank Dell to injury. It’s a formula for a Baltimore win, but Houston can still keep the score respectable.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 3

Los Angeles Chargers at New England

The Patriots ground game has been quite consistent of late. New England has rushed for 110 or more yards in all but one game since Week 8 and has posted 242 yards on the ground in the past two weeks. With the Chargers having allowed 100+ rushing yards in 11 of the past 13 games, and 333 over the past two weeks, ground production shouldn’t be an issue for the Patriots.

What will be a problem is stopping the run. New England has allowed 479 rushing yards in the past three games. That should allow the Los Angeles ground game to equal or exceed what the Patriots will do on the ground. Combine that with the Chargers having a notable quarterback talent edge and this one goes to Los Angeles.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 3

Denver at Cincinnati

Joe Burrow is playing at a Hall of Fame level. For proof, consider that he now has seven straight games with 3+ touchdown passes. Per Stathead, that is tied with Dan Marino for the fourth longest streak in NFL history. That high-powered approach won’t stop versus a Denver defense that not long ago allowed the Raiders and Browns, two mediocre offenses, to rack up a total of 775 net passing yards.

The Broncos have shown they can match any scoring pace, having scored 27+ points in five straight games. Denver also fares quite well when scoring 28+ points, having a 7-0 record this year when that happens. Cincinnati is not as adept in high scoring games, having a 4-5 record when scoring 27+ points. The home-field advantage may help the Bengals, but a great offense and good defense beats a great offense and bad defense, so this one goes to Denver.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 2

Arizona at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams haven’t been generating many points of late, registering only 31 points over the past two weeks. What they have been doing is moving the ball well on the ground, as Los Angeles has tallied 132 or more rushing yards in four straight games. The Rams have also played shutdown defense, as they held the Saints to only 14 points in Week 13 then allowed only 15 total points to the 49ers and Jets.

That rushing ability should provide plenty of upside when facing a Cardinals defense that allowed 243 rushing yards against Carolina last week and given up 535 rushing yards over the past three weeks combined. Arizona can move the ball on the ground as well, but the Rams rush defense has been very good recently and James Conner is dealing with a knee injury. Add theses to the Rams being at home and this is a Los Angeles selection.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 3

Tennessee at Jacksonville

This is one of the dud games in Week 17, but there is a chance this is more exciting than the matchup would suggest. Tennessee lost its last two games by a combined 75-57 score, so the Titans have still been able to put up points despite the quarterback change and skill position injuries.

That’s not been the case with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has tallied 14 or fewer points in four of its last six games. The Jaguars defense hasn’t been terrible in that span, but Jacksonville did allow 23+ points in three of its last five games. That’s enough of a variance to suggest that the Titans offense can keep things going and generate a win by a very small margin.

KC’s pick: Tennessee

Confidence level: 1

Las Vegas at New Orleans

This NFL season was on pace to be the first in league history to not register a single shutout. That changed on Monday night when the Saints played arguably the worst game of the entire 2024 campaign in a dreadful 34-0 loss at Green Bay. Darren Rizzi has gotten what he can out of this team, but that’s the kind of defeat that can have a lasting impact.

The Raiders haven’t been much better, but they did show some moxie in getting a win over a terrible Jaguars squad last week. That grit gives Las Vegas just enough of an edge to get this pick.

KC’s pick: Las Vegas

Confidence level: 1

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Give Dave Canales a ton of credit. The Panthers looked out of gas in the Week 15 matchup against Dallas, but Canales kept this club focused in Week 16 and was able to garner a 36-30 shootout win over Arizona. The shootout mode is key because Carolina and Tampa Bay combined for 49 points in their Week 13 battle that the Buccaneers won 26-23.

That’s not uncommon for Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers have scored 24 or more points in all but three games this year. It’s a mode Tampa Bay is comfortable with, as the Buccaneers are 7-5 in those 24+ points scored games. The Panthers are 2-2 in games where they have scored 24+ points, but the 2-9 record when they don’t score 24+ points shows that Tampa Bay has more paths to victory in this one.

KC’s pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence level: 4

Green Bay at Minnesota

This should be a fun game. Green Bay has scored 30+ points in five straight games, while Minnesota has scored 152 points over the past five weeks. The Vikings have one of the most creative defensive coordinators in the league in Brian Flores, while Green Bay’s defense is back to its earlier season form of racking up 2+ takeaways on a regular basis.

The key here is how these teams fare in high scoring games. The Vikings are 13-0 when allowing fewer than 30 points and 0-2 when giving up 30 or more points. Green Bay is 10-4 when fewer than 24 points but is only 1-4 when giving up 24+ points. Since it’s more likely that Minnesota will score 24+ points than it is that the Packers will score 30+, this should be a home victory for the Vikings.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 2

Atlanta at Washington

It’s tempting to think that Atlanta has turned things around the past two weeks by winning with a combined score of 49-16. What tempers that thought is the Falcons did this against the Raiders and Giants, easily two of the worst teams in the NFL. The more apt review for Atlanta is to note that the Falcons lost 42-21 versus the Vikings in Week 14.

That’s apt because Washington is a lot more comparable to Minnesota than it is to Las Vegas or the G-Men. The Commanders scored 36 points last week despite turning the ball over five times. They can set a pace that Michael Penix Jr. and company aren’t likely to be able to keep up with, so send this one to Washington’s column.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 19-1 in Weeks 13-16, 70-19 this year and 335-126-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Seattle at Chicago

The Seahawks defense was playing quite well for the first month following the Week 10 bye. Things have gone south since then, with Seattle allowing 57 points over the past two weeks. The key here is that the foes in those two games were Green Bay and Minnesota, two of the best offenses in the league.

Chicago’s offense got better for a time after the offensive coordinator change after Week 10, but that platoon is back to its less than productive ways. That’s why the Bears have scored 42 points over the past three weeks, with a high of 17 points in that span. The Seahawks defense is more than capable of keeping that streak going, and since Chicago has allowed 30+ points in three straight games, the Seattle offense should also get into high gear in this one.

KC’s pick: Seattle

Confidence level: 7

New York Jets at Buffalo

The Bills have some problems. They lost a shootout game against the Rams in Week 14, won a shootout game at Detroit in Week 15, then didn’t take the Patriots seriously enough in Week 16 and nearly lost that game. Buffalo won’t lack for motivation in this game, as they don’t like the Jets and need a win to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, but they didn’t lack for motivation in those previous games and still had problems.

The Jets do present a problem in that New York did post 58 combined points against the Dolphins and Jaguars in Weeks 14-15. The problem for the Jets is that it is clear Aaron Rodgers wants to operate a pass-centric system and is trying to send as many passes as possible to Davante Adams. That’s a perfectly good target choice, but New York needs to go with a run-centric approach versus a subpar Bills defense to win this one. Since that’s not an approach Rodgers is likely to concur with, and since Buffalo can get a de facto week off with a home win here, this is a Bills pick.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 6

Indianapolis at New York Giants

Jonathan Taylor had one of the best redemption games in league history last week. The Colts leaned heavily on him after his goal line gaffe against Denver and Taylor responded by leading Indianapolis to a franchise record 335 rushing yards against Tennessee. Before going beyond that, note that the Colts franchise has four Hall of Fame running backs, so that’s one of the great achievements of the 2024 season.

The Giants most notable achievement this year is all but certain to be having the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Combine that with the Colts needing a win to have any chance of staying in playoff contention and this is easily an Indianapolis pick.

KC’s pick: Indianapolis

Confidence level: 9

Dallas at Philadelphia

This has the makings of a caveat pick due to the Jalen Hurts injury. The Eagles can rely on Saquon Barkley if Hurts is out, but the reality is this offense just isn’t anywhere near as good if Kenny Pickett (who is also injured) or Tanner McKee is under center.

That’s a major issue because the Commanders showed last week that it is possible to get into a shootout game with Philadelphia and, more importantly for this pick, to garner a win in that type of contest. Dallas is capable of going into scoreboard shootout mode, having scored 26+ points in four of the past five games.

Now that we’ve established the caveat, let’s go with a pick. The Eagles get a confidence level of 6 if Hurts plays. If Hurts is out, that drops to a 1.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 6 if Hurts plays, 1 if he doesn’t

Miami at Cleveland

It’s tough to be as inept on offense as Cleveland has been over the past three weeks. The Browns have nearly half as many giveaways (12) as they have points scored (27). Dorian Thompson-Robinson was supposed to be an upgrade over Jameis Winston via a tradeoff of fewer yards but fewer picks, yet that hasn’t panned out since DTR has little in the way of yards and still threw three interceptions over the past two games.

Miami’s offense has stumbled some, scoring only 12 points against Houston two weeks ago, but the Dolphins ran for 166 yards against San Francisco last week and still have tons of skill position talent. That should be more than enough to notch a convincing win over this dismal Browns squad.

KC’s pick: Miami

Confidence level: 7

Detroit at San Francisco

It is incredible how far the 49ers offense has fallen. Take away the Week 14 game against Chicago and over the past five games San Francisco has scored 17, 10, 10, 6 and 17 points. The 49ers have tallied 15 or fewer first downs in three of those games and generated only 144 yards on the ground over the past two games combined.

That is not a good offensive state when facing a Lions team that has racked up 110 points over the past three games and 996 offensive yards over the past two games. Detroit should be able to keep a similar pace going against a San Francisco defense that’s had its share of problems of late, so this one goes to Detroit.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 6