Here are my Week 11 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 60-35 this year and are 281-175-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 41-16 this year and have netted a 306-123-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Washington at Philadelphia
The Eagles offense has some of the top talent in the league, but Philadelphia’s defense right now is the star of this show. The Eagles defense might be the best in the NFL right now, having held four straight foes to under 100 rushing yards, allowed fewer than 300 total offensive yards for five consecutive games and racking up 10 takeaways over the past three weeks.
Washington has been playing quite well as well, but the reality is that Jayden Daniels hasn’t been at the same level since his rib injury. The Commanders have also allowed 506 rushing yards over the past three games. Combine those factors with this being a short-week road trip for Washington and this one lands in the Philadelphia column.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 4
Los Angeles Rams at New England
The Rams offense is once again an aerial power following the return of Cooper Kupp to the lineup over the past three weeks. The problem for Los Angeles in that span has been the ground game, as the Rams have rushed for only 138 yards over the past two weeks despite having a top ten (and maybe top five) running back in Kyren Williams. If that gets turned around, the formula for success should work since the Los Angeles defense has been very good at stopping the run and has generated nine takeaways in the past three games.
The Patriots defense did fare well versus the run last week, but that was against a Chicago offense that is the worst in the league. Prior to that game, New England had allowed 112+ rushing yards in seven straight games and 167 or more rush yards in four of the previous six games. That should make the Rams formula for success successful, which is why this is a Los Angeles selection.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 5
Cleveland at New Orleans
Jameis Winston gives Cleveland’s offense something it didn’t have under Deshaun Watson – a quarterback willing to take chances on vertical passes. Watson’s production there was terrible because of that hesitance and that opens the door for big plays. The problem for the Browns is that Winston throws a lot of picks, and they haven’t been able to move him to counterpunch vertical pass mode because of the lack of a strong rush attack.
The Saints defense may help solve that ground game issue, having allowed 181 yards to Atlanta last week. The New Orleans may be able to offset that by winning the turnover battle, as the Saints haven’t posted a giveaway since Week 7. Combine that with this game being in New Orleans and this leans slightly in the Saints direction.
KC’s pick: New Orleans
Confidence level: 1
Indianapolis at New York Jets
It’s back to Anthony Richardson for the Colts following Joe Flacco’s inability to turn from elite relief pitcher into a quality weekly starter. Richardson should help the ground game get going again after Indianapolis failed to post 100+ rushing yards in three of the past six games, but his presence also crushes the potential impact of a solid Colts receiving corps.
The Jets issues have less to do with talent than they do with psyche. This team expected Aaron Rodgers to be able to throw 500 passes in his age 41 season despite only two quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Warren Moon) having done that before. Rodgers has stayed healthy, but it’s clear he’s nowhere near the elite passer he was in Green Bay. Combine that with the Jets defense having taken a notable step back after Robert Saleh’s exit and this one goes to the Colts.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 3
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Steelers have been a scoring machine of late, racking up 26+ points in four straight games and a total of 123 points in that quartet of contests. This has largely been due to a ground game that found new life when Najee Harris didn’t have to carry the entire workload, as Jaylen Warren has been able to shoulder more of the running back work volume. That combination works great with a rush defense that has held three of the last four opponents to 60 or fewer yards on the ground.
Baltimore’s offense is a step ahead of Pittsburgh’s, having notched 30+ points in six of the past seven games. The Ravens also have posted great rush defense numbers, allowing more than 100 yards only twice this year. That is something of a mirage, however, as teams are throwing the ball at the shaky Baltimore pass defense and doing such with much success. These trends point towards a scoreboard shootout, and since the Steelers defense is better and this game is in Pittsburgh, that’s the direction this pick will go in.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 3
Minnesota at Tennessee
The Vikings offense is one of the most disappointing platoons in the NFL right now. Minnesota has scored 21 or fewer points in three straight games despite having Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson on their roster. This disappointment reached a nadir last week with only 12 points against a less than stellar Jacksonville defense. The good news for the Vikings is that Brian Flores is still a brilliant defensive coordinator, and his platoon helped Minnesota overcome those offensive woes and win the past two games.
Tennessee’s offensive woes have been legion all year long due to atrocious quarterback play. The Titans defense hasn’t been much better, having allowed 419 rush yards over the past two weeks and registering zero takeaways in three of the past four games. It’s possible that the Vikings won’t turn things around, but they have the talent to do so. The Titans don’t and that’s more than enough to grant this pick to Minnesota.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Atlanta at Denver
The biggest question mark here is how will Denver fare after the past two weeks? The Broncos got destroyed in Baltimore after thinking they might be able to keep up with the AFC’s best team but following that up with last week’s heart wrenching last minute loss to Kansas City could have Denver’s players questioning if their approach is working. Fortunately for the Broncos, Sean Payton has been through this type of thing before and will know how to keep his team’s mindset grounded now that their two-game road trip has ended.
Atlanta’s issue is that it often doesn’t play to its talent level. That was certainly the case in Week 10 when the Falcons laid an egg against a banged-up Saints team that they outclassed talent-wise. It’s enough of an issue to question if Atlanta will do the same this week, especially since the Denver is every bit as talented as the Falcons. That lack of margin for error for Atlanta is what ends up putting this pick in the Denver column.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 3
Kansas City at Buffalo
Many years ago, Bill James looked into the theory that great teams do well in close games. He found that wasn’t the case, as great teams typically had many dominant wins and didn’t get into many games that had close scores. This is worth keeping in mind when analyzing the Chiefs 9-0 start, as this team isn’t as strong as that record would indicate. Kansas City isn’t generating many takeaways, typically has a solid but not great passing game and is inconsistent at stopping the run. That means this isn’t a truly great team, but rather a squad that is winning in spite of itself in some weeks.
By contrast, Buffalo is hitting its peak right about now. The Bills have won five straight and scored 30+ points in the last four games. Buffalo’s defense has posted at least one takeaway in every game, with nine in the past four games. The Bills also have superb coverage metrics and have Josh Allen playing at maybe the highest level of his career in some ways. Combine those with home field and this is a Buffalo pick.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 3
Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers
This Chargers team is starting to look more and more like Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan teams. Los Angeles now has a strong platoon backfield to go along with a smart quarterback who doesn’t throw picks (the Chargers have posted zero giveaways in all but two games this year) and can hit long passes to speedy wideouts. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who was Harbaugh’s DC at Michigan, has the Los Angeles defense playing lights out, having allowed more than 17 points only once all year.
Cincinnati presents the Chargers with a difficult challenge given that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are capable of posting catch and yardage totals in a single game that entire teams sometimes don’t account for over four quarters. That will make this game competitive, but the Bengals defense just can’t hold up its end of the bargain. That could result in the Chargers posting a solid score, and since Cincinnati is 0-5 when allowing 26 or more points, Los Angeles is the preferred pick.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 4
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 41-16 this year and have gone 306-123-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Green Bay at Chicago
The Week 10 bye was probably perfect timing for the Packers after Green Bay scored a season low 16 points against Detroit. This is still one of the most consistent offenses in the league, having racked up 378 or more offensive yards in all but two games. The Packers ground game has also been a go-to, posting 126+ rushing yards in all but two games and 163 or more rushing yards on five occasions.
The Bears offense has been so bad of late that Chicago fired its offensive coordinator. All aspects of that platoon have struggled, and it led to the Bears tallying only 142 offensive yards and three points against New England last week. Chicago’s rush defense is also dismal (525 yards allowed in the past three games) and Green Bay’s defense makes a ton of big plays, so this one goes to the Packers by a solid margin.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 7
Jacksonville at Detroit
The past two weeks have been something of a test for the Lions. They had to prove they could win a tough division road battle outdoors versus Green Bay in Week 9, then had to show they could come back on the road against a tough Houston squad after falling behind due to Jared Goff’s five interceptions. That Detroit passed both tests showed this team has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
The Jaguars biggest achievement this year has been getting a new stadium approved. Jacksonville’s offense can’t move the ball on the ground (116 yards over the past two weeks combined), can’t throw with Mac Jones under center and is turnover prone (eight giveaways the past three weeks). The biggest concern here is that the Lions will overlook this, but Dan Campbell will get his team to pass that test, too, and with flying colors.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 9
Las Vegas at Miami
It speaks well for the Dolphins offense that Miami has scored 73 points over the past three weeks despite getting subpar vertical pass numbers from Tua Tagovailoa. Some of that may be due to Tyreek Hill’s wrist injury, yet it shows that Mike McDaniel can play call offensive success even when a big play target is limited. The Dolphins rush defense has also performed well of late, allowing fewer than 100 yards in three straight games despite facing James Conner, James Cook and Kyren Williams in that span.
It's easy to blame the Raiders offensive woes on Gardner Minshew II, but Minshew isn’t the reason Las Vegas has tallied 71 or fewer rush yards six times this year, including 93 over the past two weeks combined. The Raiders defense isn’t carrying its weight either, as the Silver and Black have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this year and just gave up a season high 41 to Cincinnati. Merge these elements with the game being in Miami and this one goes to the Dolphins.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 7
Seattle at San Francisco
Christian McCaffrey looked to be battling some injury rust last week on the ground, but he did well on passes during his first week back. That bodes well for CMC to be back to his elite form this week. The 49ers also have Deebo Samuel at full strength and George Kittle is still a top three tight end.
The problem for San Francisco is a penchant for getting into scoreboard shootouts, as the 49ers have allowed 20+ points in five straight games. The Seahawks have the firepower to keep up in that type of contest, but Seattle’s defense has some of the worst advanced defensive metrics in the league over the past month. That trends towards San Francisco having a wider path to 30+ points and the win in this one.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 6
Houston at Dallas
The Texans are reeling right now, having lost three out of four, with the last defeat occurring despite Houston picking off five of Jared Goff’s passes last week. That extends a recent trend of the Texans defense taking the ball away, with Houston racking up 15 takeaways in the past five weeks. The Texans offense has also shown it doesn’t need a ton of help to win, as Houston is 4-0 when allowing 20 or fewer points.
That 21+ point barrier wouldn’t have been a problem for the Cowboys with Dak Prescott under center, but it looks to be an issue in a Cooper Rush-directed offense. Last week’s abysmal showing was partially due to facing an Eagles defense that might be the best in the league right now, but it’s tough to trust an offense that has CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and not much else in the skill position department. That sends this pick to Houston.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 7