Here are my Week 11 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 60-35 this year and are 281-175-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 41-16 this year and have netted a 306-123-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Washington at Philadelphia

The Eagles offense has some of the top talent in the league, but Philadelphia’s defense right now is the star of this show. The Eagles defense might be the best in the NFL right now, having held four straight foes to under 100 rushing yards, allowed fewer than 300 total offensive yards for five consecutive games and racking up 10 takeaways over the past three weeks.

Washington has been playing quite well as well, but the reality is that Jayden Daniels hasn’t been at the same level since his rib injury. The Commanders have also allowed 506 rushing yards over the past three games. Combine those factors with this being a short-week road trip for Washington and this one lands in the Philadelphia column.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 4

Los Angeles Rams at New England

The Rams offense is once again an aerial power following the return of Cooper Kupp to the lineup over the past three weeks. The problem for Los Angeles in that span has been the ground game, as the Rams have rushed for only 138 yards over the past two weeks despite having a top ten (and maybe top five) running back in Kyren Williams. If that gets turned around, the formula for success should work since the Los Angeles defense has been very good at stopping the run and has generated nine takeaways in the past three games.

The Patriots defense did fare well versus the run last week, but that was against a Chicago offense that is the worst in the league. Prior to that game, New England had allowed 112+ rushing yards in seven straight games and 167 or more rush yards in four of the previous six games. That should make the Rams formula for success successful, which is why this is a Los Angeles selection.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 5

Cleveland at New Orleans

Jameis Winston gives Cleveland’s offense something it didn’t have under Deshaun Watson – a quarterback willing to take chances on vertical passes. Watson’s production there was terrible because of that hesitance and that opens the door for big plays. The problem for the Browns is that Winston throws a lot of picks, and they haven’t been able to move him to counterpunch vertical pass mode because of the lack of a strong rush attack.

The Saints defense may help solve that ground game issue, having allowed 181 yards to Atlanta last week. The New Orleans may be able to offset that by winning the turnover battle, as the Saints haven’t posted a giveaway since Week 7. Combine that with this game being in New Orleans and this leans slightly in the Saints direction.

KC’s pick: New Orleans

Confidence level: 1

Indianapolis at New York Jets

It’s back to Anthony Richardson for the Colts following Joe Flacco’s inability to turn from elite relief pitcher into a quality weekly starter. Richardson should help the ground game get going again after Indianapolis failed to post 100+ rushing yards in three of the past six games, but his presence also crushes the potential impact of a solid Colts receiving corps.

The Jets issues have less to do with talent than they do with psyche. This team expected Aaron Rodgers to be able to throw 500 passes in his age 41 season despite only two quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Warren Moon) having done that before. Rodgers has stayed healthy, but it’s clear he’s nowhere near the elite passer he was in Green Bay. Combine that with the Jets defense having taken a notable step back after Robert Saleh’s exit and this one goes to the Colts.

KC’s pick: Indianapolis

Confidence level: 3

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The Steelers have been a scoring machine of late, racking up 26+ points in four straight games and a total of 123 points in that quartet of contests. This has largely been due to a ground game that found new life when Najee Harris didn’t have to carry the entire workload, as Jaylen Warren has been able to shoulder more of the running back work volume. That combination works great with a rush defense that has held three of the last four opponents to 60 or fewer yards on the ground.

Baltimore’s offense is a step ahead of Pittsburgh’s, having notched 30+ points in six of the past seven games. The Ravens also have posted great rush defense numbers, allowing more than 100 yards only twice this year. That is something of a mirage, however, as teams are throwing the ball at the shaky Baltimore pass defense and doing such with much success. These trends point towards a scoreboard shootout, and since the Steelers defense is better and this game is in Pittsburgh, that’s the direction this pick will go in.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 3

Minnesota at Tennessee

The Vikings offense is one of the most disappointing platoons in the NFL right now. Minnesota has scored 21 or fewer points in three straight games despite having Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson on their roster. This disappointment reached a nadir last week with only 12 points against a less than stellar Jacksonville defense. The good news for the Vikings is that Brian Flores is still a brilliant defensive coordinator, and his platoon helped Minnesota overcome those offensive woes and win the past two games.

Tennessee’s offensive woes have been legion all year long due to atrocious quarterback play. The Titans defense hasn’t been much better, having allowed 419 rush yards over the past two weeks and registering zero takeaways in three of the past four games. It’s possible that the Vikings won’t turn things around, but they have the talent to do so. The Titans don’t and that’s more than enough to grant this pick to Minnesota.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 4

Atlanta at Denver

The biggest question mark here is how will Denver fare after the past two weeks? The Broncos got destroyed in Baltimore after thinking they might be able to keep up with the AFC’s best team but following that up with last week’s heart wrenching last minute loss to Kansas City could have Denver’s players questioning if their approach is working. Fortunately for the Broncos, Sean Payton has been through this type of thing before and will know how to keep his team’s mindset grounded now that their two-game road trip has ended.

Atlanta’s issue is that it often doesn’t play to its talent level. That was certainly the case in Week 10 when the Falcons laid an egg against a banged-up Saints team that they outclassed talent-wise. It’s enough of an issue to question if Atlanta will do the same this week, especially since the Denver is every bit as talented as the Falcons. That lack of margin for error for Atlanta is what ends up putting this pick in the Denver column.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 3

Kansas City at Buffalo

Many years ago, Bill James looked into the theory that great teams do well in close games. He found that wasn’t the case, as great teams typically had many dominant wins and didn’t get into many games that had close scores. This is worth keeping in mind when analyzing the Chiefs 9-0 start, as this team isn’t as strong as that record would indicate. Kansas City isn’t generating many takeaways, typically has a solid but not great passing game and is inconsistent at stopping the run. That means this isn’t a truly great team, but rather a squad that is winning in spite of itself in some weeks.

By contrast, Buffalo is hitting its peak right about now. The Bills have won five straight and scored 30+ points in the last four games. Buffalo’s defense has posted at least one takeaway in every game, with nine in the past four games. The Bills also have superb coverage metrics and have Josh Allen playing at maybe the highest level of his career in some ways. Combine those with home field and this is a Buffalo pick.

KC’s pick: Buffalo

Confidence level: 3

Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers

This Chargers team is starting to look more and more like Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan teams. Los Angeles now has a strong platoon backfield to go along with a smart quarterback who doesn’t throw picks (the Chargers have posted zero giveaways in all but two games this year) and can hit long passes to speedy wideouts. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who was Harbaugh’s DC at Michigan, has the Los Angeles defense playing lights out, having allowed more than 17 points only once all year.

Cincinnati presents the Chargers with a difficult challenge given that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are capable of posting catch and yardage totals in a single game that entire teams sometimes don’t account for over four quarters. That will make this game competitive, but the Bengals defense just can’t hold up its end of the bargain. That could result in the Chargers posting a solid score, and since Cincinnati is 0-5 when allowing 26 or more points, Los Angeles is the preferred pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 41-16 this year and have gone 306-123-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.