Eli Manning is unhappy, many New York Giants fans (and the NFL media in general) are upset that the team yanked the starting spot of the two-time Super Bowl MVP and gave it to former second-round draft pick Geno Smith, and the players themselves will be angry when we confirm that Smith is a much worse option than Manning.
But here’s why you should be pleased with the lineup change: The pressure is off. You can go ahead and pick against the Giants in every single game for the rest of the season, assuming Manning will be coming off the bench for the rest of 2017. Because whether it’s Smith (a 12-18 career record with a career 72.3 quarterback rating) or 2017 third-round draft pick Davis Webb taking over as quarterback, I don’t see New York beating the team’s five remaining opponents: the Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Cardinals, and Redskins.
So, yeah, the decision will probably suck for the Giants. But it’ll be great for you and your wallet.
As usual, check out Pickwatch’s John Halpin’s full slate of Week 12 picks. Now, here are a few of mine (If I’m right, make sure to congratulate me @jkatzo on Twitter).
1)Bet your life savings on this game*
Colts at Jaguars
Though some people doubted my power of prediction by expressing disbelief that I picked the Cardinals over the Jaguars last week—only to later bow at my alter—I’m returning to the obvious choice of picking Jacksonville to run over the hapless Colts. Indianapolis has won one game since Oct. 8, and the Jaguars and its league-leading defense is, by far, the best team in the AFC South. This is an easy choice.
Straight up: Jaguars
Against the Spread: Jaguars -9.5
2017 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 9-3 S/U and 5-7 ATS
2)This game scares the hell out of me
49ers at Bears
Both teams are horrendous, and two horrendous teams playing in each other in a game that will likely be maddening to watch is always going to be a tough call. But we’re here to make the difficult picks, so let’s go with the Bears. Why? I don’t really know. Maybe Chicago quarterback Mitch Trubisky will stop having such a terrible season by facing the NFL’s fifth-worst defense, and maybe the Bears defense, which isn’t half bad, will feast on Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start outside the warmth and comfort of the Patriots organization. That sounds more likely than San Francisco somehow pulling out a win.
Straight up: Bears
Against the Spread: Bears -3
2017 record for the “Scares the hell out of me” game: 8-4 S/U and 8-4 ATS
3) Fun game of the week
Vikings at Falcons
We already knew the Vikings had one of the best defenses in the league, but with Case Keenum at quarterback, Minnesota surprisingly has become a top-10 offense, as well. Beating the Rams last Sunday and then knocking off the Lions just four days later on the road was awfully impressive, but I think the winning streak stops in Atlanta. The Falcons aren’t the best team in the NFC, but they’ve won three-straight and with the way Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were connecting last week, they’ll be a difficult matchup for the Vikings, especially since they have another away game.
Straight up: Falcons
Against the Spread: Falcons -3
2017 record for “Fun game of the week”: 9-3 S/U and 7-5 ATS
2017 record for every game picked in this column: 26-10 S/U and 20-16 ATS
S/U ATS
WAS over DAL WAS -1.5
ATL over MIN ATL -3
DET over BAL DET +2.5
NE over BUF NE -8.5
CHI over SF CHI -3
GB over TB GB +1.5
JAC over IND JAC -9.5
MIA over DEN MIA +1.5
KC over NYJ KC -3
TEN over HOU HOU +7
LAC over CLE CLE +14
LAR over ARI LAR -7
OAK over NYG OAK -9
NO over CAR NO -4
SEA over PHI SEA+6
PIT over CIN PIT -5.5
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.