Lots of news in the NFL this week to cover in the picks below. Ezekiel Elliott finally (probably) set to serve his suspension, and some interesting trades.
On to the Week 9 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 8 records: 11-2 SU, 4-9 ATS
Overall: 69-50 SU, 57-58 ATS
Bills (-3) over JETS
Two surprising AFC East teams get the week kicked off with their Christmas Color Rush uniforms. The Bills are the better squad, while the Jets have lost three in a row after a 3-2 start (so much for #SuckforSam). I’m tempted to pick the Jets, but their lack of talent seems to be catching up to them.
The pick: Bills win and cover
PANTHERS (-1.5) over Falcons
“Hey, Cam Newton! We’re 5-3, and the offense is struggling. Hope you don’t mind that we’re trading away your most productive wide receiver.”
Actually, the Kelvin Benjamin trade isn’t as big a deal as people here in Charlotte seem to think, and it will help get speedy rookie Curtis Samuel on the field more. Is that good? Um, maybe.
Speaking of struggling offenses, the Falcons rank fifth in yards per game, but only 15th with 21.9 points per game. It’s hard to conclude that they’ll improve on the road against a Panthers’ defense that hasn’t allowed a touchdown over its last two games.
The pick: Panthers win and cover
TEXANS (-13) over Colts
This is a huge spread, but the Colts are a very bad team. They’ve lost their four road games this season by 37, 28, 14 and one point.
The Texans have averaged 39 points in five games since DeShaun Watson became their starting quarterback. They should roll here.
The pick: Texans win and cover
JAGUARS (-5) over Bengals
The Bengals rank 30th in the league with 287.1 yards per game, thanks to a terrible offensive line that has created little running room for Joe Mixon & Co. Against a Jags’ defense that might be the league’s best, their best chance is a Blake Bortles debacle. That’s always in play, but the Jags will take the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much as possible.
The pick: Jaguars win and cover
Buccaneers (+7) over SAINTS
Enough with the favorites. Even though the Saints and their suddenly competent defense are better than most people expected, the Bucs’ offense is good enough to keep this one close.
The pick: Saints win, Bucs cover
(Note: This pick will be revisited if Jameis Winston sits out due to his shoulder injury.)
Rams (-4) over GIANTS
Here’s a live look at the Giants’ locker room, where Janoris Jenkins has become the second cornerback to be suspended over the last few weeks.
This is a team that followed up its surprising win at Denver by losing 24-7 at home to the Seahawks, while being outgained 425-177. The Rams are clearly the better team, and the Giants’ best hope is the dreaded “West Coast team with 1 p.m. kickoff” handicap.
The pick: Rams win and cover
EAGLES (-8) over Broncos
The Broncos have lost three in a row, their offense has been held under 20 points for five straight games, and they have to travel to Philly after playing on Monday night. Thanks, NFL schedule makers.
The pick: Eagles win and cover
TITANS (-5.5) over Ravens
Joe Flacco is expected to play after nearly being decapitated last Thursday night. The inconsistent Ravens appear capable of stepping up or laying an egg against anyone. The Titans haven’t been as good as advertised, but some of that can be attributed to Marcus Mariota’s hamstring injury, which looks to be cleared up.
Honestly, both teams are confusing, but I don’t think I can bet the Ravens against any decent opponent.
The pick: Titans win and cover
49ERS (+2) over Cardinals
Yes, the 49ers are 0-8. Yes, I know their fortunes have taken a turn for the worse since C.J. Beathard was installed at quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t expected to play this week). But if you think I’m picking Drew Stanton on the road, you’re crazy. They barely beat the Niners at home in Week 4 when Carson Palmer was playing.
The pick: 49ers win and cover
SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Redskins
I’d like to pick the ‘Skins to keep things close here, but we have no idea if their offensive line injury situation will improve before Sunday. How about we pick the Seahawks for now, and revisit things on Friday or Saturday?
The pick: Seahawks win and cover
Chiefs (PK) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys have been explosive lately, averaging 32.4 points over their last five games. But without Ezekiel Elliott? Pass.
The pick: Chiefs win and cover
Raiders (-3) over DOLPHINS
The Raiders stayed on the East Coast after their disgusting loss to the Ravens. This week’s opponent seems to be an easier challenge, as the Dolphins rank 31st – behind the Browns! – in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They just traded Jay Ajayi to Philly, and will again trot out Jay Cutler at quarterback. How in the world did this team beat the Falcons?
The pick: Raiders win and cover
PACKERS (+3) over Lions
Brett Hundley wasn’t good in his debut as a starter, but the Packers were beating the Saints until early in the fourth quarter. After a bye week, I’m willing to give the underdog Pack the benefit of the doubt in a Monday night home game.
The pick: Packers win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The Bengals squeaked past the Colts in Week 8. It was ugly, but a win is a win, right?
The Texans are this week’s biggest favorite at home against the Colts. Next up are the Eagles, Seahawks and Saints – we’ve used the first two, and I’m not sure I trust the Saints enough in this spot. If you still have the Texans available, they’re the pick.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)
Week 5: Eagles (win)
Week 6: Broncos (loss)
Week 7: Rams (win)
Week 8: Bengals (win)
