I feel like a genius after posting a 9-7 straight up record in Week 3, since almost half of the crowd was below .500.

The Jets and Bills made me look smart, while hindsight makes picking the Cardinals look like a glaring mistake. Oh, and THE LIONS GOT SCREWED, DAMMIT!

Let’s get to the Week 4 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).

(Home team in CAPS.)

Week 3 records: 9-7 SU, 6-9 ATS

Overall: 29-18 SU, 25-20 ATS

PACKERS (-7) over Bears

The Bears lived up to my label as an annoying team by beating the Steelers at home on Sunday. However, their pair of strong home performances sandwiched a dud at Tampa in Week 2. Look for the Pack to win somewhat comfortably.

The pick: Packers win and cover

DOLPHINS (+2.5) over Saints

Sure, the Saints played better than we thought against the Panthers. But now we’re going to make their 31st-ranked defense a neutral-site favorite against a team that probably isn’t as terrible as it looked in a loss to the Jets? Come on. Jay Ajayi is going over 100 in this one, easy.

The pick: Dolphins win and cover

FALCONS (-8) over Bills

Man, I like the Bills. Their defense is playing better than expected, and they’re probably going to be close to average instead of the previously projected awful. But the Falcons are very good, and I don’t think the Bills can score enough to hang with them on the road.

The pick: Falcons win and cover

RAVENS (+3) over Steelers

The Ravens were horrendous last Sunday in London. But in case you forgot, here are Ben Roethlisberger’s home/road splits since 2014 (h/t RotoViz Game Splits app):

Venue

Pass Yds/Gm

TDs/Gm

INT/Gm

Yds./Att.

Home (21 games)

335

2.9

0.76

8.8

Road (24 games)

268

1.1

0.96

7.4

Big Ben is not even close to the same guy on the road. The Ravens’ defense is still terrific, despite last week’s disappointing performance. This is a bad spot for the Steelers.

The pick: Ravens win and cover

Bengals (-3) over BROWNS

Who wins the battle between two winless, desperate teams? The Bengals, whose above-average defense should force DeShone Kizer into more interceptions (he has seven so far). I can’t say I love this pick, though.

The pick: Bengals win and cover

COWBOYS (-7) over Rams

Of course the Rams lead the NFL in points after three games. We all knew this was going to happen.

Seriously, I haven’t chugged the entire bottle of Rams’ Kool-Aid, but they’re good enough to keep this one close against a Cowboy team whose offensive line might not be as good as in past seasons. And the Rams’ offense is no joke, folks.

The pick: Cowboys win, Rams cover

Titans (-1.5) over TEXANS

I switched this pick before publishing. The Texans hung tough against the Pats on the road last week, but DeShaun Watson will mix flashes of excitement with lots of growing pains this season. The Titans should take care of business here.

The pick: Titans win and cover

Lions (no line) at VIKINGS

Once again, we’ll wait with Vegas on Sam Bradford’s status. Last week, I went with the Bucs due to Case Keenum’s start. I’ll probably pick against the Vikes again if Bradford can’t play.

The pick: TBD

PATRIOTS (-9) over Panthers

I know the Panthers’ offense is struggling, but do you realize how bad the Patriots’ defense has been? On a per-play basis, they’re 30th against the pass and 31st versus the run. Call me a homer, but I think the Panthers and their solid defense keep this one close.

The pick: Pats win, Panthers cover

Jaguars (-3.5) over JETS

Any good defense should be able to shut down the Jets. The Jags have a very good defense. #analysis

The pick: Jags win and cover

CARDINALS (-7) over 49ers

The 49ers’ biggest weapon is RB Carlos Hyde. He’s got a road matchup with a Cardinals’ defense that is allowing 3.1 yards per carry, and kept Ezekiel Elliott in check on Monday night. I was tempted to take the Niners to cover after their 10-day layoff, especially since they kept things close with both the Seahawks and Rams. Call it a hunch, but I like the Cardinals.

The pick: Cardinals win and cover

CHARGERS (-1) over Eagles

Let’s just agree to keep picking the Chargers until they win.

The pick: Chargers win and cover

Giants (+3) over BUCCANEERS

The Bucs blew out the Bears and got stomped by the Vikings. I have no idea what to make of them, but it’s worrisome that an already banged-up defense will be without star LB Lavonte David (ankle) for at least a couple of weeks.

The Giants might be a bad team, or they might be a mediocre team. They’re certainly a desperate one, and they played like it in the second half against the Eagles. The season is GONE if they lose this game. Let’s go with the upset versus a Bucs’ squad whose running deficiencies play to the Giants’ strengths.

The pick: Giants win and cover

Raiders (+2.5) over BRONCOS

I thought the Raiders would lose Sunday night, but that level of ass-kicking was a surprise after how well they played in the first two games. Still, let’s not forget that the Broncos almost lost to the Chargers in Week 1. They’re far from perfect – even at home – and the Raiders’ offense can score on anyone.

The pick: Raiders win and cover

SEAHAWKS (-13) over Colts

Yeah, we know. Saying, “but it’s the Seahawks” isn’t a good enough reason to think they’ll start playing better. But … it’s the Colts. Still without Andrew Luck. In Seattle. Blowout.

The pick: Seahawks win and cover

CHIEFS (-7) over Redskins

OMG THE CHIEFS ARE UNSTOPPABLE! Yeah, maybe. The numbers say that their defense is slightly above average. Their so-far-dominant offense is still led by Alex Smith. The Redskins, on the other hand, are probably a 9-7 type team. Look for them to make things interesting, kind of like the Eagles did at Arrowhead a couple of weeks ago.

The pick: Chiefs win, Redskins cover

SURVIVOR PICK

The Panthers let us down last week, but I have no regrets (except for losing, of course). Week 3 was too early for me to pick a good home favorite like the Pats or Packers. Oh, well.

The Seahawks are the obvious choice this week versus the terrible Colts, and we’re going to take them. I’d normally like to save this type of team for later, but their remaining home games are all against opponents that can be classified as mediocre or better (Texans, Redskins, Falcons, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals). Maybe the Cardinals are an exception, but you don’t want to hold a team for Week 17.

Previous selections:

Week 1: Bills (win)

Week 2: Ravens (win)

Week 3: Panthers (loss)