Can I get partial credit for picking the Colts last week?
They were sooooo close. Eh, what am I complaining about. The success rate so far has been good, thanks partly to my lifelong Giants fandom. I knew their offense would be this bad.
Let’s get to the Week 3 picks, with selections being both straight up and against the spread unless noted otherwise. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(ATS winners in CAPS.)
Week 2 records:
13-3 SU,
10-6 ATS
Overall:
20-11 SU,
19-12 ATS
RAMS (-2.5) over 49ers
For context, the Niners have faced two very good defenses so far. But they’ve scored TWELVE POINTS in two games. The Rams, on the other hand, seem like an improved squad, with new head coach Sean McVay leading the offense on a two-game competence streak. For this franchise, that seems like a miracle.
The pick: Rams win and cover
RAVENS (-4) over Jaguars
I like the Jags. Leonard Fournette looks built to handle a heavy workload, and the defense should give opponents trouble all season. But the Ravens’ D is better, and Joe Flacco isn’t worse than Blake Bortles. This game might feature fewer points than some EPL matches, with the Ravens coming out ahead.
The pick: Ravens win and cover
COLTS (+1) over Browns
Football Outsiders has these teams ranked 31st and 32nd in DVOA. Woooooo!
Colts QB Jacoby Brissett seems … adequate? That’s not bad, right? Cleveland counterpart DeShone Kizer struggled against the Ravens, and inconsistency should be expected. This game looks like a tossup, so let’s take the home team.
The pick: Colts win and cover
Steelers (-7.5) over BEARS
Mike Glennon was so bad against the Bucs that you want to instinctively pick against him. However, one bad game isn’t going to chase me away from the Bears as an annoying team that will keep some games close, especially at home. Look for the Steelers to eke out a win, kind of like the Falcons did at Soldier Field in Week 1.
The pick: Steelers win, Bears cover
JETS (+6) over Dolphins
This game falls under the category of “The Jets have to win sometime, right?” OK, maybe they don’t have to, but they probably will. The mediocre Dolphins might be the easiest home matchup on the Jets’ schedule. If Todd Bowles’ crew finishes 1-15, it’ll still be good enough for their #SuckforSam ambitions.
The pick: Jets win and cover
BILLS (+3) over Broncos
The Bills’ defense was awfully frisky in Week 2 at Carolina. As surprisingly good as Trevor Siemian and the Broncos’ offense have looked so far, let’s see how they fare in a rowdy road environment. I think the Bills take this one. Sean McDermott’s a good coach, folks.
The pick: Bills win and cover
PATRIOTS (-13) over Texans
Yes, the Pats’ defense has been bad. But the Texans’ D is banged up, with CB Kevin Johnson (knee) and LB Brian Cushing (suspension) out of action. The bet here is that a Belichick game plan will confuse and confound rookie QB DeShaun Watson, with J.J. Watt & Co. not keeping things close enough to cover the spread.
The pick: Pats win and cover
PANTHERS (-6) over Saints
The Panthers have struggled offensively, and will be without Pro Bowl TE Greg Olsen for a couple of months. If your offense was trying to find its way, wouldn’t you want them to play the Saints at home?
The pick: Panthers win and cover
BUCCANEERS (+2) over Vikings
Vikes head coach Mike Zimmer announced Friday that Sam Bradford will miss another game due to his knee injury. That's good enough for me - let's roll with Jameis Winston and the Bucs, even if the spread moves a couple of points in their favor. We've only got one blowout win over the Bears as evidence so far, but the Bucs should be pretty good.
The pick: Bucs win and cover
LIONS (+3) over Falcons
Super Bowl hangover? Bah, say the Falcons. They’re 2-0 after thumping the Packers on Sunday night.
But they’re not going to win every game, right? The 2-0 Lions should be jacked up for this home matchup, and the Falcons will be without 2016 NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. Look for the Matthew Stafford-for-MVP chatter to begin at about 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
The pick: Lions win and cover
EAGLES (-6) over Giants
The Giants have been easy money so far, thanks to a missing (Week 1) and limited (Week 2) Odell Beckham Jr. Also, remember that their putrid offensive line finally faces a real defense this week. Eli Manning might not throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage.
With that said, the Giants were 11-5 last season with a similar cast of characters, and my gut says their overworked defense will keep this one close. My brain, which sees Ereck Flowers in its nightmares, disagrees. Brain wins this time.
The pick: Eagles win and cover
TITANS (-2.5) over Seahawks
The Seahawks’ offense should overcome a bad line to find its footing soon. I don’t see it happening this week, though. The Titans’ trendy Super Bowl train should pick up more steam.
The pick: Titans win and cover
CHARGERS (+3) over Chiefs
Come on, Chargers. We know you’re better than this. Just don’t leave everything in the kicker’s hands, er, feet this time.
The pick: Chargers win and cover
PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
The Bengals fired their offensive coordinator after an inept 0-2 start. Will they right the ship at Lambeau this week? Probably not.
The pick: Packers win and cover
REDSKINS (+3) over Raiders
You could make an argument for the Raiders having the best offense in the league. Good QB, excellent wideouts, Marshawn Lynch running well, terrific line. Their defense can’t really keep up with the offense, but it’s good enough. This team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
BUT … they’re traveling across the country for a primetime matchup against a decent team that rebounded well after a home loss in Week 1. The game looks like a tossup, and in that case I’ll take the home dog almost every time. #HTTR
The pick: Redskins win and cover
CARDINALS (+3) over Cowboys
Maybe it’s the Cowboy hater in me, but I’m a bit concerned about Dak Prescott. You can give him a pass for struggling against the scary Broncos, but he didn’t look all that great against the Giants, either. And the defense? Ugh.
The Cardinals’ D is pretty good, and should keep things close. Can Carson Palmer and the offense score enough to win and propel a 1-2 Cowboy start into nonstop media coverage? Yes!
The pick: Cardinals win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The Ravens were an easy call last week, though I’m starting to think they’ll be better than expected later in the season. For Week 3, let’s go with the offensively challenged Panthers over the Saints at home. Cam Newton & Co. might run into trouble soon, but it probably won’t happen this Sunday. I don’t want to use the Pats or Packers yet, the Steelers are on the road, and there aren’t any other big favorites.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers