Favorites have been the way to go this season, with a record of 121-53 (69.5%) straight up and 90-77-7 (53.9%) versus the spread. If I had picked favorites in every game, I’d be in first or second place in the SU standings. But that wouldn’t be any fun, right?
On to the Week 13 picks. If you have any questions, catch me on Twitter (@jhalpin37).
(Home team in CAPS.)
Week 12 records: 14-2 SU, 9-6 ATS (Texans-Ravens was a push)
Overall: 109-67 SU, 85-83 ATS
Redskins (-1) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys have scored 22 points in three games since Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension began. The Redskins have been competitive against good teams, winning at Seattle in Week 9, and losing close games to the Vikings and Saints over the next two weeks. I think they’ll pull this one out.
The pick: Redskins win and cover
Lions (+3) over RAVENS
Did people get a bit too excited about the Ravens beating the Texans by a touchdown at home? Seems that way. Their defense is terrific, but the best team they’ve beaten is probably the Bengals. As long as Matthew Stafford’s ankle isn’t too gimpy, I like the Lions to get a solid road win.
The pick: Lions win and cover
TITANS (-7) over Texans
The Titans remain unimpressive, despite a 7-4 record that has them atop the AFC South. They should be able to win this one at home, but I’m not giving the TD, even with the Texans getting the short end of the travel stick (going on the road again after a Monday night loss at Baltimore).
The pick: Titans win, Texans cover
PACKERS (-1) over Buccaneers
The Bucs expect Jameis Winston back for this contest at Lambeau Field. Is that a good thing? Hmm …
The Packers were impressive at Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but they’re 1-4 since Aaron Rodgers got hurt, with home losses to the Saints, Lions and Ravens. Those are three above-average teams, something the Bucs aren’t.
The pick: Packers win and cover
DOLPHINS (PK) over Broncos
Which dumpster fire is bigger? The one playing on the road.
The pick: Dolphins win and cover
Patriots (-9) over BILLS
After losing three in a row by a total of 80 points, the Bills stopped the bleeding with last week’s win at Kansas City. Too bad, as they were apparently trying to tank the season. Bring back Nathan Peterman!
The Bills were undefeated at home until Week 10, when the Saints shredded them for 47 points. The Patriots have averaged 36.3 points over their last three games, and the Bills’ D isn’t good enough to stop them. I wanted to pick the underdog here, but I just can’t.
The pick: Patriots win and cover
FALCONS (-3) over Vikings
Great game. The Falcons have perked up, averaging nearly 32 points during a three-game winning streak, while the Vikings’ seven-game roll has them thinking about a Super Bowl home game. I’m a Falcons believer.
The pick: Falcons win and cover
BEARS (-3.5) over 49ers
If the Niners were starting C.J. Beathard instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, this would be an easier pick. But the Bears have been solid at home (4-1-1 ATS), and should take this game over a bad opponent.
The pick: Bears win and cover
JETS (+3.5) over Chiefs
The Jets have been another good home team, going 3-3 overall and 5-1 ATS. As for the Chiefs … I have no idea. They’ve been a disaster after their 5-0 start. Will they turn things around, or continue their free fall? Seriously – no clue. There’s not much reason to think they’ll win this one, though.
The pick: Jets win and cover
JAGUARS (-9.5) over Colts
Don’t be alarmed by the Jags’ loss at Arizona, which has a pretty good defense and should have been expected to play a very competitive game. This is still a pretty good team with a shaky QB – same as they’ve been all along.
The Colts have been more respectable since getting shut out by the Jags in Week 8, beating the Texans and losing three games by a combined eight points to the Bengals, Steelers and Titans. Still, the Jags should take care of business.
The pick: Jaguars win and cover
CHARGERS (-14) over Browns
Chargers to the playoffs, baby! I knew I should have bet on this when they were 0-4! OK, not quite, but I thought they had a chance, and I love their defense.
If you want a silver lining for the Browns, it’s this: Despite a 2-9 ATS record, just three of their 11 losses have been by more than this game’s 14-point spread. Is that really a silver lining? I don’t know. I just hate giving any team two touchdowns. Still …
The pick: Chargers win and cover
SAINTS (-4.5) over Panthers
Bitter division rivalry alert. The Saints lost a road game to the Rams, but had the excuse of being without their two starting cornerbacks, whose status for this week is TBD. The offense for my hometown Panthers has been inconsistent all season long, and I hesitate to pick them here. I won’t be surprised if they win, but don’t want to bet on it in a loud Superdome.
The pick: Saints win and cover
Rams (-7) over CARDINALS
The offensively-challenged Jaguars were the perfect match for the Cardinals at home. The Rams? Not so much. Sean McVay’s squad can score, and the Cards don’t figure to keep up, even with the pleasantly surprising Blaine Gabbert.
The pick: Rams win and cover
RAIDERS (-7.5) over Giants
Geno Smith? You want me to bet on Geno Smith?
OK, if you insist. The Raiders will be without WRs Michael Crabtree and (probably) Amari Cooper, and aren’t good enough to give seven-plus points to anyone.
The pick: Raiders win, Giants cover
Eagles (-6) over SEAHAWKS
I like the Eagles as much as the next prognosticator. They’ve been terrific, and are a worthy Super Bowl favorite through 12 weeks. But even minus Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, don’t the Seahawks seem likely to keep things close at home in primetime?
Look for the Eagles to win this one, and lose next week at the Rams.
The pick: Eagles win, Seahawks cover
BENGALS (+6) over Steelers
The Bengals have improved, going 5-4 since an inept 0-2 start that resulted in a change at offensive coordinator. But who have they beaten? The Browns (twice), Bills, Colts and Broncos. Meh.
However, the Steelers have won just one of their six road games by more than this six-point spread. Also, their head coach is already talking about facing the Patriots in Week 15. Weird, right? Let’s go with an upset.
The pick: Bengals win and cover
SURVIVOR PICK
The favorites did well last week, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back for picking the Pats. Too easy.
The only double-digit favorite on the board is the Chargers, and since I’ve been pushing them for a playoff berth for weeks, I’m not going to back off now. If you’ve already used the Bolts, the Jags look like a solid play, as do the Raiders in Geno Smith’s Giants’ debut.
Previous selections:
Week 1: Bills (win)
Week 2: Ravens (win)
Week 3: Panthers (loss)
Week 4: Seahawks (win)
Week 5: Eagles (win)
Week 6: Broncos (loss)
Week 7: Rams (win)
Week 8: Bengals (win)
Week 9: Texans (loss)
Week 10: Lions (win)
Week 11: Chiefs (loss)
Week 12: Patriots (win)